Using only polls that were conducted entirely after South Carolina, here are the polling averages for Democrats in Super Tuesday states (all polls from Pollster.com, statistically significant advantages in bold):
Post-South Carolina, Super Tuesday Polls, Democrats
| State |
Polls |
Clinton |
Obama |
Delegates |
| Delegates |
4 |
246 |
157.5 |
2,025 to win |
| Alabama |
3 |
46.3% |
42.7% |
52 |
| Arizona |
2 |
44.0% |
40.0% |
56 |
| California |
6 |
43.7% |
39.5% |
370 |
| Connecticut |
3 |
44.0% |
41.0% |
48 |
| Delaware |
1 |
44.0% |
42.0% |
15 |
| Georgia |
4 |
36.6% |
50.0% |
87 |
| Illinois |
3 |
29.7% |
55.3% |
153 |
| Massachusetts |
2 |
50.0% |
35.0% |
93 |
| Minnesota |
1 |
40.0% |
33.0% |
72 |
| Missouri |
5 |
45.6% |
42.0% |
72 |
| New Jersey |
6 |
47.2% |
38.5% |
107 |
| New York |
4 |
51.3% |
35.8% |
232 |
| Oklahoma |
2 |
42.5% |
18.0% |
38 |
| Tennessee |
4 |
46.8% |
31.0% |
68 |
| Utah |
1 |
29.0% |
53.0% |
23 |
| National |
5 |
47.0% |
40.0% |
0 |
- My guesses on other states for Clinton: Arkansas (35), New Mexico (26)
- My guesses on other states for Obama: Alaska (13), Colorado (55), Kansas (32), Idaho (18)
- I haven't the foggiest: North Dakota (13)
Clinton's narrow national advantage (which is expanding according to Rasmussen, and shrinking according to Gallup) appears to be replicated across a wide range of states: Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota and Missouri. Collectively, those states make up about 41% of the Super Tuesday delegates. It seems, then, that Obama needs to pick up about 4% pretty much everywhere in order to draw even with Clinton on Super Tuesday.
The margin of error for Obama on Super Tuesday is surprisingly narrow. As most commenters have noted, Obama is aiming for a draw on Super Tuesday, which would be adequate given that Clinton is still viewed as the frontrunner (thus Obama would beat expectations), that the February schedule is very favorable to Obama (thus he could build momentum), and that his enormous small donor base would give him a large fundraising advantage in a drawn out campaign (thus he could build a resource advantage heading into March and beyond). However, while a "draw" means about 9-12 states and 820-850 delegates, Clinton can actually deal what is more or less a knockout blow if she wins 950 delegates or more. With 950 delegates on Super Tuesday, she takes a 300 delegate lead, and reaches 60% of the magic number even before further super delegate backing (which would be likely if she "wins" on Super Tuesday) and the Michigan and Florida delegates are seated (and they will be seated). Catching up at that point would be virtually impossible for Obama, even when factoring in his post-Super Tuesday advantages.
So, we are talking about only a 100-125 delegate margin of error for Obama on Tuesday, which really isn't that much. If Clinton wins 850 delegates, the situation looks great for Obama. If Clinton wins 950 delegates, the situation is devastating for Obama. Right now, the polling numbers above crudely project to a 102-delegate advantage for Clinton on Super Tuesday, or about 895 to 793, which is almost precisely in the middle of the best case and worst case scenarios for Obama. Honestly, a few points in either direction could turn the campaign into a dead heat, or turn it into a solid Clinton advantage. With Gallup and Rasmussen pointing in opposite directions, it is difficult to determine what is happening. We will all find out in about 60 hours or so.
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