Primary Morning News

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:17


  • Obama wins 75% of the votes from Democrats abroad in Indonesia.

  • Clinton is up by 10 in the latest SurveyUSA poll in California.  There are lots of polls out there, but I have one piece of advice.  Don't stake your hopes on Zogby, ever.

  • I got this NAACP  Presidential questionnaire filled out by Obama and Clinton.  They have almost no policy disagreements, except Obama doesn't include green energy in his budget proposals.  I find Michelle Obama's statements about whether she'd support Hillary Clinton in line with the general arrogance of the Obama campaign.  

  • The kids are loving this one on the youtubes.  It really is awesome, though not quite as good as 'You and I' by Celine Dionne.

  • Be aware of the womenfolk. Cato at Dailykos discusses the Boston Obama rally with breathless excitement.

    Walking past the thousands of people, I was immediately struck by how young everyone was.  I would estimate that 75 percent of the crowd was under 35, and it may have even been higher than that.  Many were clearly college kids (BU, Northestern, BC, Suffolk, Emerson, Umass Boston, and scads of community colleges are in the immediate vicinity). Of course this rally was taking place late at night on a Monday, so a lot of older people probably didn't feel like getting home at 12:30 AM like I just did.  Anyway this bodes well for Obama because most MA polls are probably vastly under sampling these younger voters who have only unlisted cell phones, and who appear ready to hit the polls en masse tomorrow.

    Young people have more time to go to rallies, so it's not clear to me that this is an advantage.  Todd Beeton went to the Hillary town hall and he found it boring and oriented towards women.  And I have certainly heard this a lot.  

    This event plus an anecdote from one of the morning shows yesterday that a woman received several Hillary mailers while her husband received none --  seems to me the Clinton campaign is counting on overperforming among women tomorrow. I predict the turnout among women will be astronomical and the gender gap large -- they always seem to come through for her when she's threatened and Barack certainly is an electoral threat to her.

    There are also reports of empty seats at Obama events, so don't overestimate the pull of Obama.

  • Sex workers are prepping for the conventions, though anecdotally the GOP Convention is better for business.  Shocker.

  • Jonathan Cohn notes that SEIU is going to spend $75M on health care politics and advocacy this cycle.

  • I don't cover the delegate count process, so I'm going to suggest you read this nice Washington Post chart (via MyDD).  Or stay tuned to OpenLeft, for Chris's analysis.  His piece on superdelegates is making waves.

More soon.  There was also a debate last night I attended between Donna Edwards and Al Wynn, which I know everyone is talking about right now.

Matt Stoller :: Primary Morning News

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on Zogby (4.00 / 1)
I agree that we shouldn't trust or count on Zogby. Fair enough. But they were pretty close in Iowa.

Hey, Everybody, Look!!! It's A Bright, Shiny Primary (4.00 / 2)
Pay no attention to the sell-out Senators passing retro-active telecom immunity behind the curtain.

Indeed! (0.00 / 0)
I can't wait for this horse race crap to go back below the fold so we can focus on things that matter right now.  Isn't it convenient that a major bombshell - Bush stacked the 9/11 Commission in his favor after failing to prevent it from convening - fell right in the middle of all this?

[ Parent ]
I APPLAUD Michelle Obama (0.00 / 0)
If someone sent surrogates out to call my husband a coke dealer, "THEY"wouldn't get my support either. Interesting how you well-known progressive bloggers are always calling out pols for lying and when someone tell the truth about how they feel, They are ARROGANT."Pot to Kettle"!
As for Zogby, unlike past years they have been pretty good with the primaries.

How did the Edwards/Wynn debate go? (0.00 / 0)
I'd love to see her knock him out of that seat.

Still undecided here in NJ.  I can't believe it.  Though, having lost my candidate only a week ago, I guess it's not that surprising.  

I could flip a coin.  I could give in to the urge to vote for Obama (mostly emotional) or I could go with my logic that Clinton is probably a safer choice, a more known entity, or I could decide not to vote in the primary, though that doesn't feel right at all.  But voting for someone I don't really believe in doesn't feel right either, in a primary.  In the general election, I'll strongly support our candidate, whoever it may be.  

I've been here before, choosing between the lesser of two evils per se, and not voting "for" someone.  I hate this feeling.


You may wan to read Poblano's take on the polls (0.00 / 0)
he seems to come to the opposite conclusion.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

and I agree with Michelle, she should not be expected to work for the Clinton campaign, should she win, she has done plenty. I do not think she said anything about support, it was about working, so there is a difference there, especially when asked to a working mother of two young children, but then only working parents would understand, I think.  


Arrogance? (4.00 / 1)
You are right we can't fill the UCLA stadium during the super bowl. And you are right we don't like the Clintons. And yes, we have a lot of young supporters who attend rallies.

But Arrogance? My blood runs cold when I think about the arrogance of lying to a grand jury, saying I never inhaled, crying on demand, refusing to make public tax returns or White House documents, and/or using surrogates to push racially based narratives(i could go on). Lying is arrogant. Doing anything to win is arrogant. I value truth.


Yeah ... them are 'fightin' words from Stoller... (0.00 / 0)
Sorry Matt the 'luv' just isn't there with the Clinton ticket...

If she continues to fight dirty -- that 'Unity' you are hoping for won't happen... Hello President McCain...


[ Parent ]
That Obama Video (0.00 / 0)
is a lot of fun to you and me, but I wonder if it could not come back to haunt him. Might the Republicans exploit it in a campaign which will doubtless be trying to appeal in various ways to the white bigots and haters in their Party?  The message: "Obama supporters are not like you and me".

I am Obama-skeptic, but I have to say I like the tone of the potshots he has been taking at McCain in recent days.


On Empty Seats (0.00 / 0)
I went to the St. Louis rally and almost all the seats were empty in the NFL stadium where the rally was held. But then again, the floor was packed to the tune of 22,500 people. And this was a rally held 9pm in competition with a Blues game and Mardi Gras celebrations in the Soulard district. A noon rally for Clinton the next day in St. Louis had about 1000.

Look at the crowd count, not the empty seats.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!


"There are also reports of empty seats at Obama events" (0.00 / 0)
Chris, I expect this from the Politico, but not from you! It is probably worth pointing out that the photo is from an event that Obama didn't attend (and wasn't ever scheduled to attend).  So maybe Michelle, Caroline Kennedy, and Oprah could only pull 8,000 people in LA on Sunday, but at that time Obama was drawing 20,000 people in downtown Wilmington.

I'm not saying he has a Godly power to draw crowds, but it wouldn't really be fair to say he isn't pulling crowds based only on events he doesn't go to.


Obama's Arrogance (0.00 / 0)
You see what you want to see. I go to a Hillary rally and I see people who are out of touch with her image, her stances on labor and the war. I go to Obama rallies and the audience is full of folks who are out of touch with his ability to transcend party politics. Pick your misconception. Both sides have supporters who don't understand their candidates.

Now, if you want to talk about arrogance, look no futher than Minneapolis this weekend. Obama rented the 20,000 seat Target Center and filled it to the rafters. Clinton got a high school sized gym, could not fill it, and still, for whatever reason, gave a nod to the "overflow room" which she promised she would "visit after the rally."

You tell me who has more hubris.


Rooting for Pera and Edwards (4.00 / 2)
Actually, I'm much more interested in the primaries that will make a progressive difference.  I won't be too fussed/jubilant regardless of who comes out ahead in the presidential, but I am really hyped about Mark Pera's contest today.  I will be extremely excited tonight if he wins, that's for sure.

And in a week we've got Edwards, which as a rematch is even more intense, esp with how much institutional incumbency protection she's up against.  Go Donna!

Tim Wolfe


Empty Seats (4.00 / 1)
Hey Matt -

The other comments above cover the points I wanted to make (Obama wasn't at that rally, it was during the Super Bowl, the Pauley Pavillion holds 13,000 people - before you count the people on the floor, there were 8,000 people at a rally w/o the candidate during the Super Bowl!), so I'll just point to yesterday evening's rally in Hartford.  The HCC was full (for a political rally not UCONN-Tennessee women's basketball) - it seats 16k + people on the floor - and it was hopping.

A staffer, who was not on the speaking line-up got a standing O for giving information on how to help GOTV.  About an hour before the speaking was supposed to start, a full lower bowl and a half full upper bowl started the wave.

Whatever else you want to say about him, the guy can draw a crowd.

See you Thursday?

CT Local Politics: Our Primaries are Better than Yours!


I think the mailers are from Emily's List (0.00 / 0)
at least the numerous ones my wife got were NOT officially Clinton camapaign.  I thought they were pretty impressive.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

What the world needs now... (4.00 / 1)
For all you political junkies who have already read everything in the blogosphere and are craving more as you wait for returns, English language Al Jazeera asked its readers for their thoughts on the American elections.

Best quote
From Somalia:

People in Somalia prefer Democrats to dominate the White House, because the Democrats are less violent than Republicans.

True that, at least at the grassroots level.

From Israel:

Any US president who would push us, either politically or by using the aid package as a bribe, to end the conflict in a peaceful and just way would be good for Israel.

Therefore I would say that any of the Republican fundamentalist candidates would be worst for Israel since they all encourage (and fund) the conflict and encourage (and fund) fundamentalist groups and politicians in Israel.

From Venezuela:

But as far as diplomatic relations are concerned, a Democrat is easier for us to talk to.

From the Phillipines:

Everyone in the US wants change. It would be a breather if a Democratic president is elected. However, a 360-degree change in US foreign policy is maybe too idealistic.

All you America-first trolls may now direct your flames my way for being aware the outside world exists.


Gosh! Maybe I Was Wrong! (0.00 / 0)
That Republicans Are BAD For The Economy:

Sex workers are prepping for the conventions, though anecdotally the GOP Convention is better for business.  Shocker.


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

On Zogby (0.00 / 0)
Zogby might be off sometimes, but Zogby has actually been one of the better pollsters this primary season. He nailed the Florida GOP result, for example - his final poll there was McCain 35, Romney 31, which was what the final result was. Ras, SUSA, Insider Advantage all had it as a tie.

If that poll was ARG, I'd be with you in discounting it. But Zogby has been better than Ras and SUSA this primary cycle (although Zogby was worse in '02, '04, and '06).


HAHAHAHA (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, the Obama campaign is the arrogant one, not the "Hillary is inevitable" campaign...

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