Early Exit Poll Rumors

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 12:30


(See the Republican numbers here - promoted by Chris Bowers)

Here you go.  I have no idea how reliable these are.

The Obama victories are bolded.  If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today.

Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 29
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton - 37
Delaware Obama 56, Clinton 42
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 45
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Arkansas: Clinton 71, Obama 26
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 30
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45

1st wave:
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 46
Utah: Obama 60, Clinton 40
California: Clinton 50, Obama 46

[UPDATE BY TIM TAGARIS at 6:38 PM] -- These numbers often change dramatically from wave to wave.  For example, the first exit poll #'s we got in Iowa showed Hillary in the lead.  Over the course of the next few fiften/thirty minute intervals, they shrunk and eventually showed a healthy Obama lead.  If these are the first waves (or even the second), they don't mean all that much -- especially hours from polls actually being closed in some of these locations.

[UPDATE BY MATT STOLLER at 6:41 PM] -- Tim Tagaris is wrong.  You should bet half of your life savings on these numbers, and the other half on Zogby's polling.  

Matt Stoller :: Early Exit Poll Rumors

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Early Exit Poll Rumors | 37 comments
Whoa (4.00 / 1)
If these hold up this will be a good night for Obama. I do wonder though, how does exit polling take early voting into account? If the race is within a few a certain range of percentage points is it too close to call due to early voting?  
If that's reliable, its big trouble for Clinton (0.00 / 0)
also, no MN?  Why do people hate polling Minnesota so much?
I believe (4.00 / 1)
that only the primary states have exit polls right now. The caucus states--save New Mexico, which is really a primary--do not.  
[ Parent ]
MN (0.00 / 0)
Because its cold and some of the people talk like in the movie Fargo... and we all know that Pollsters hate people with accents unless they are southern or north eastern.
[ Parent ]
it's because... (0.00 / 0)
our phone lines freeze for 3 months during the winter, but it doesn't really matter because its too cold to leave our igloos

seriously, its because we have a caucus, so there's not gonna be any exit polling

[ Parent ]
Sorry... (0.00 / 0)
I'm sticking with my accents theory... THe pollsters are... well... hmm... Accentists... yeah that works.  
[ Parent ]
eh? n/t (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
I don't believe them, but... (0.00 / 0)
...If those numbers ARE accurate in the end, how can Clinton recover? How can she possible win the nomination if she has never led Obama in delegates the entire race?

If those numbers are right, and Obama wins more delegates tonight than Clinton, the race is over. Clinton may drag it out, but Obama will be our nominee.

How can Clinton seriously continue if she never takes the lead in elected delegates?

Bush wouldn't be in office if exit polls were reliable (0.00 / 0)
So there's that.

I would love for these numbers to be true - but there is a lot of justifiable doubt.

Well, when you committ voter fraud... (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
There is that, of course (0.00 / 0)
Nevertheless, isn't going to be useful to go THERE, at least right now.
[ Parent ]
I don't believe it (0.00 / 0)
If these are true (and none of these are caucus states), Obama's going to win in a blowout.
Source link? (0.00 / 0)


Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
This may mean (0.00 / 0)
Hillary doesn't get but a 1/7 of the Ill delegates when bonus delegates are accounted for.

On the ground in Jersey, I believe it

Damn (0.00 / 0)
Much as I would like these to be true I don't believe them. We'll see in just a few minutes if Obama managed to take my home state of Georgia by 50(!) points.  
Do these polls take early voting into account? (0.00 / 0)
I assume that this is a bit distorted if early voting isn't taken into account in this polling.  I'm not sure how high the level of early voting is in the various states, but I wouldn't put too much stock in some of these polls unless it's accounted for.
As much as I love them... (0.00 / 0)
Georgia alone proves Tim's post... I think Obama will win, but NOT by THAT much.
Does Zogby predict the outcome of sporting events, too? (0.00 / 0)
Financial independence, here I come!
You and every other Giants fan (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I don't believe this (0.00 / 0)
No way these numbers can be real. But I guess we'll wait and see. For now, I'll continue to burn up the phone lines to GOTV!
Real? (0.00 / 0)
Sure they are real, but that doesn't mean they paint the whole picture.  By that I mean these are actual numbers form actual voters, but that doesn't mean the story is written.  

Gives me hope though.  If these numbers are even close, then Obama will have some HUGE Mo coming out of tonight.  But this will tighen and it will be real close.  

[ Parent ]
Wow (4.00 / 1)
Clinton got -37 in Alabama!!! Wow, THAT'S impressive!
Exit polls (0.00 / 0)
I'm always nervous about exit polls getting released while the polls are still open. I wonder whether there's some way the exit polls could wind up influencing votes or turnout in the remaining hours...
Are we agreed Obama wins if: (0.00 / 0)
HRC gets only a 100 total delegate advantage over Obama?

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
I would (0.00 / 0)
Anything under 100 to Obama leading would be a win for Obama.  
[ Parent ]
Sources? (0.00 / 0)
Where are these #s from?
Ambinder's Warning (0.00 / 0)
I think Marc Ambinder's comments should be noted here:
Fellow journalists and pundits. I have the same data you have... and I would just remind all of you that the first wave of exit poll data is not reportable or reported for a simple reason: the sample sizes are not large enough to accurately tell us much of anything, unless one candidate is getting, like, 80% of the vote.

So people probably shouldn't even feel confident about Obama in Georgia and Illinois and Clinton in Arkansas.

It's interesting that these numbers are being reported so widely. I wonder how quickly networks will be calling the races..

Well (0.00 / 0)
MSNBC DID call Georgia for Obama.
[ Parent ]
Doubt (0.00 / 0)
But its always better to see doubtful things trending your way than to see them trending the other way.
Stoller update at 6:41 (0.00 / 0)
You could have been an economic advisor to Reagan with gems like that...
i wish... (0.00 / 0)
they would privatize my Social Security so I could start making bets like that
[ Parent ]
ABC projects GA for Obama (0.00 / 0)
no surprise, but it happened right away.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Georgia (0.00 / 0)
CNN has already projected Obama as winner in Georgia based on these exit polls.
More Georgia exits (0.00 / 0)
Georgia exit polls without any reweighting towards actual numbers are:

Obama: 66.5%
Clinton: 31.1%
Edwards: 1.4%

[ Parent ]
Start revising down (0.00 / 0)
CNN's already shaded the results down from that first result by 10%.

If MA is close that would be huge. Heck, if he only loses MA by 7 that would be huge.

Young Vote is WAY (0.00 / 0)
Up in GA, by 10% of 2004
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26 (0.00 / 0)
That adds up to 101%. Is that some home cooking, or what?
[ Parent ]
Early Exit Poll Rumors | 37 comments
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