Words of wisdom:
Otto: You know your problem? You don't like winners.
Otto: Yeah. Winners.
Archie: Winners, like North Vietnam?
Otto: Shut up. We didn't lose Vietnam. It was a tie!
There are only two paths to the Democratic nomination now. One path, for Clinton, is based on her maintaining a tie or a narrow lead among pledged delegates, thus allowing her to seal the deal through a rules and bylaws engine that focuses on superdelegates and the Michigan / Florida delegate seating process. The other path, for Obama, is based on him taking a narrow pledged delegate lead, and then slowly building that lead through a string of victories that will eventually make Clinton's super delegate lead a democratic farce, and her Michigan / Florida claims irrelevant. Which situation are we in now? Well, unless one is simply incapable of counting pledged delegates and simultaneously blind to Obama's gaping caucus advantage and resource advantage, you simply have to conclude that the latter scenario is more likely now.
More in the extended entry.
|Obama is going to lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, something that the Clinton campaign does not dispute:
Hillary advisers also disputed the Obama camp's claim of a lead among delegates, arguing that they were ahead when you factor in superdelegates.
Well, whoop dee doo that you lead in super delegates, considering that most of those enodrsements were racked up when your campaign was the clear frontrunner. After this weekend, when three of the four states, and 126 of the 185 pledged delegates, are determined via caucuses (and the rest are in primaries with high African-American populations), Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead further. On Tuesday, no matter who actually wins the popular vote in Virginia, Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead even further than that by racking up large wins in D.C. and probably Maryland. And then, on February 19th, there is another caucus in Hawaii, and a primary in the non-partisan registration state of Obama's neighboring Wisconsin. Yes indeed, the February calendar is very favorable to Obama.
A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.
Now, Clinton can still make a stand in Ohio and Texas on March 4th, where the electorate is much more favorable to her than it is the rest of February. However, if she fails to score victories there, there is no way she can win the pledged delegate count in this nomination campaign, and the floodgates could open for Obama. At that point, her only other path to the nomination would be through super delegates and controlling the Michigan / Florida delegation seating process. At best, that is a backdoor path to the nomination that will force a crisis of legitimacy in the Democratic nominee.
Update: Apart from those listed above, there is also another possibility over which I salivate: Obama sweeps February, but Clinton holds her ground on March 4th, leading to a huge showdown in Pennsylvania on April 22nd. That would be pretty sweet, at least from a political junkie and local resident perspective.