Superdelegates Turning Toward Popular Vote Leader

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:50


Over the past thirty days, Obama has won significantly more endorsements from super delegates than Hillary Clinton. According to Democratic Convention Watch, on January 13th, Clinton led Obama 183 to 74 among super delegates. Currently, according to Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton leads Obama 224 to 132 among super delegates. If these numbers are accurate, it would mean that over the past thirty days Obama has received the endorsement of 58 super delegates, while Clinton has received the endorsement of 41. At this point, the only reason Clinton leads among super delegates is because of endorsements that took place before any voting or caucusing began this cycle.

Eleanor Holmes Norton, D.C.'s non-voting representative in Congress, provided one of the better explanations for this trend in her endorsement of Barack Obama today:

I had expected to announce my endorsement much closer to the general election, as I always have done in the past.  However this year's primary has raised new issues. As a super delegate, I decided I had to speak up now to separate myself from the idea that is afoot for the first time that super delegates, especially those who have not announced their choice, could or should decide our nominee under some circumstances.  The notion that a candidate who has not earned delegates could become the Democratic nominee for president is at odds with the democratic principles of our party reforms.  Super delegates were never intended to allow the return of smoked-filled room, behind the scenes selection of our candidate. I have carried a banner for a democracy of the District of Columbia too long to depart from principles of democracy within my own party.

Indeed. As a party that carriers the banner of democracy, we need to uphold those values in our own party. Super delegates should respect the will of primary voters and caucus goers. There is no rule to prevent them from doing this.

There is growing indication that the majority of super delegates will line up behind whoever wins the most support from primary voters and caucus goers, no matter who that candidate will be. Further, since the way that the majority of super delegates vote will be determined only after the primaries and caucuses have been completed, they should not be included in running counts of delegate totals.

Update: Even more on super delegates respecting the will of the voters. A blogger asks a pro-Clinton super delegate if she thinks there is a chance super delegates would defy the will of the voters:

Elaine Kamarck, a senior DNC official and super delegate herself, told me Thursday that it would never happen. "Super delegates are cowards - we would never do that." This, by the way, from a woman who has endorsed Hillary Clinton.

Super delegates only come into play if no popular vote leader emerges, not before. As such, they should not be counted in running delegate totals.  

Chris Bowers :: Superdelegates Turning Toward Popular Vote Leader

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Good work (0.00 / 0)
It will be interesting to check back this time, say, Thursday and see if/how much that 92 margin (224-132)has dropped.

It would also be interesting to monitor the other sites' estimations for trends. Democratic Convention Watch is all fine and dandy but I'm not ready to annoint them as automatically correct on these counts. Fortunately, they list them on their site; unfortunately, I can't access blogspot sites from work.


Counting the Supers (4.00 / 2)
Take a look at this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21...

NBC should really be applauded for these numbers. Not only do they not include superdelegates, but they have a column just for "Super delegates committed" and it is blank all the way down. Just like in real life!

Now if only MyDD would muster as much integrity as NBC and change their own delegate count to match reality. Who are they trying to fool over there?

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra


Good find (0.00 / 0)
I noticed the same thing this morning. Just more evidence that MSNBC is in the tank for Obama ;-)

[ Parent ]
what's really odd (0.00 / 0)
is that they are so protective of her lead – that somehow, if they showed a delegate count where she were behind, that it would doom Clinton immediately. Really, almost all of our favorite candidates spend most of their time behind in the polls – but weirdly, this race seems to have instilled "inevitability" into many bloggers as a core value.  

[ Parent ]
Clap louder (0.00 / 0)
MSNBC should be applauded because they show Obama winning, in other words.  All of this shit fails the shoe on the other foot test.

I want to hear everyone whose whining about Superdelegates promise that they will leave the Democratic Party if Superdelegates put Obama over the top too.

Of course, you won't.

The one downside of the Netroots is it provides an echo chamber where we can start to believe our own spins a little bit like the right.  It's great for fighting the Republicans, but it sure is something else when we turn on ourselves...


[ Parent ]
I want to hear... (0.00 / 0)
I could try and explain to you why I believe it is important to exclude superdelegates from delegate counts at this point in the game - but your comment was intended to harass not debate. Needless to say that a lot of discussion has gone on regarding how to gauge this race and it is not unreasonable to conclude that superdelegates are currently irrelevant. If you care to offer an explanation as to why the superdelegates, as they stand now, are a significant factor in determining who is leading this race, feel free to do so.

Also, keep in mind that the foot WAS on the other shoe not very long ago, when Clinton had a clear pledged delegate lead. The principle stands then as it does now, and as it will if she regains the pledged delegate lead. The superdelegates are a haze surrounding this race, but the fact remains that only a minority have vocally committed, and those commitments can be changed without any notice or justification.


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra


[ Parent ]
The self-praising Times (0.00 / 0)
I noticed this weekend how the NYT put out their own "methods" analysis of counting delegates by various media outlets.  They seemed quite proud of the fact that they don't count delegates until they're 'counted' at the state level, but then they're perfectly willing to throw into the count any and all superdelegates!!
Their bias is so transparent.

Good work, Chris (0.00 / 0)
In ferreting out this info.

Although some of us suggested as much when you first started worrying about this.  

I appreciate that your worrying sneds you to find out all this information that you can share with us, but I worry a bit about your worrying.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


Please see my new diary (0.00 / 0)
for evidence that Super Delegates are moving toward Obama:

http://www.openleft.com/showDi...


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