Second Potomac Primary Returns Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 21:06


( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

Update 7--New Obama Voters Breaking For Donna Edwards: Here is an exciting thought for progressives: the new primary voters who are coming out for Barack Obama are also going to result in a progressive defeat of an incumbent member of Congress in a primary. Al Wynn's numbers are stagnant  from 2006, while Donna's have skyrocketed. There is massive movement building potential here.

Update 6--Donna continues domination: More precincts. PG-13-06: in 2006 it was 463-265 Wynn, and in 2008 it went 568-513 for Edwards. PG-13-04 went 260-250 Wynn in 2006, but in 2008 it went 469-299 for Edwards. Turning into a rout. Brutal but awesome. Matt is experiencing something he feels unfamiliar with--winning. It took him a while to identify the feeling. It was vaguely reminiscent of August 8th, 2006. The Connecticut for Lieberman Party has not yet endorsed Al Wynn.

Update 5--Edwards dominating early returns in MD-04: Donna Edwards is up 55-41 in early returns for MD-04 (6% in). Every precinct coming in is showing at least 10% for improvement for Edwards from 2006. This is looking very, very good. Both an Obama and an Edwards winning--who would have thunk it?

Update 4--Obama takes clear popular lead: I can now project that after tonight, Barack Obama will be ahead of Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates even with Florida and Michigan included, and even with Obama receiving zero delegates from Michigan. He will also probably pass Clinton even in the popular vote count most favorable to her. Obama is now clearly the new leader in the nomination campaign, but Wisconsin looms nest week.

Update 3--Voting Mess In MD-04: Matt reports on some disturbing news.

Update 2--Obama wins Maryland: CNN and MSNBC both project Maryland for Obama. At first look, the exit poll shows a margin of about 62%-36%, but that always changes. Similar voting patterns to Virginia in terms of religious service attendance and education, but neither of those crosstabs are further divided along ethnic lines. Don't know when we should start expecting Maryland 4th results, but along with delegate counts that is the only drama left tonight.

Update: Commenter mattw has a cool chart that projects a 54-29 delegate count from Virginia as of 9:05 p.m. eastern. the number 62.5% is particularly crucial in most congressional districts, but 70% is crucial in CDs 4, 7 and 10. Use this chart for further reference on how delegates are apportioned by at the congressional district level.

First Potomac Primary returns thread here.

Maryland 4th Results
6% Reporting
Edwards: 55%
Wynn: 41%

Democratic Presidential Results
State Reporting Obama % Clinton % Delegates Obama Del Clinton Del
D.C. 89% 76% 24% 15 9 0
Maryland 3% 35% 62% 70 22 5
Virginia 92% 64% 35% 83 49 28

Chris Bowers :: Second Potomac Primary Returns Thread

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62.5% remains crucial (0.00 / 0)
That is the number to look for.  

[ Parent ]
Roughly what I have using live results (0.00 / 0)
63.88% 18 11
35.02%

DISTRICT CANDIDATE VOTE
Congressional 01
Last Reported: Feb 12 2008 9:16PM EST

Barack Obama 41,985 65.14% 3 1
Hillary Clinton 21,973 34.09%

Barack Obama 21,025 62.54% 3 1
Hillary Clinton 12,282 36.53%

Barack Obama 67,742 79.88% 5 1
Hillary Clinton 16,466 19.41%

Barack Obama 54,424 72.02% 4 1
Hillary Clinton 20,444 27.05%

Barack Obama 47,389 65.01% 3 1
Hillary Clinton 24,624 33.78%

Barack Obama 19,618 52.53% 2 2
Hillary Clinton 17,201 46.06%

Barack Obama 52,593 64.88% 3 2
Hillary Clinton 27,042 33.36%

Barack Obama 45,514 63.38% 4 3
Hillary Clinton 25,690 35.77%

Barack Obama 13,966 32.42% 1 3
Hillary Clinton 28,222 65.52%

Barack Obama 27,893 58.30% 3 2
Hillary Clinton 19,511 40.78%

Barack Obama 15,845 59.90% 4 2
Hillary Clinton 10,428 39.42%

53 30


[ Parent ]
I see where we differ (0.00 / 0)
You're including candidates / uncommitteds under 15%, and I'm dumping them out of the equation. That changes 1 AL delegate.

[ Parent ]
I'm not (0.00 / 0)
I only kept the Clinton-Obama numbers.

[ Parent ]
For got to throw out less than 15% for AL (0.00 / 0)
Ooops.

[ Parent ]
Hillary in El Paso (0.00 / 0)
I've never seen her wear turquoise before.

pandering....


Chris and others... (0.00 / 0)
Check out http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

He's keeping up with the delegates and watching each CD


MSNBC calls MD for Obama (0.00 / 0)
That's 3 for 3 for Obama tonight.

Per Chuck Todd (0.00 / 0)
on MSNBC, via Kos,

[quote]Chuck Todd just said Clinton has to win TX, OH and PA by 63% or so to catch Obama after Wisconsin and Hawaii. I'd like to see the math, but if so, that's insurmountable. She won't get those numbers.[/quote]

Seems that Obama may have an extremely comfortable lead coming into Texas and Ohio.  If she loses one of those...


Great Obama Speech (4.00 / 4)
He is going after McCain.  Hard.

Watching Obama on MSNBC (0.00 / 0)
He just mentioned Democrats "voting like Bush-McCain Republicans" for "a war that should never have been authorized" as part of his talk against tired old politics.  Then he mocked McCain's "straight talk express" for opposing tax cuts before supporting them.   I really haven't been watching speeches.  Has this been part of his standard speech?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

Has this been part of his standard speech? (4.00 / 1)
Only in the past week or so

[ Parent ]
4000 Republican voters in DC? (0.00 / 0)
4000 Republicans voted in the DC primary today.

I had no idea DC had so many Republican voters!


6% reporting (0.00 / 0)
Donna takes the lead!

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

Virginia 1010pm (4.00 / 1)
Same delegate breakdown... looking for MD by-CD / DC by municipal district numbers... anyone have a source? I can't find them via the AP (which had them this past weekend).



1 more precinct in VA-08 (0.00 / 0)
If Obama takes it by a 115 vote margin, then he gets +1 delegate (and HRC gets -1)

[ Parent ]
Boo (0.00 / 0)
Missed it by 138 votes.

[ Parent ]
watching Obama and McCain speeches back-to-back (4.00 / 1)
Maybe I'm just caught up in the fortunes of their two campaigns right now, but it makes me feel really good about our chances in November

Change Vote (0.00 / 0)
...is clear.  I just hope that I did enough for Donna Edwards.  I dunno.  I tried.  We want change!!

Winning (0.00 / 0)
I'm more paranoid about hubris than most, but I think winning could start happening a little more often in the future. The next real step is making it add up to something, closing the loop.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

another day another landslide (0.00 / 0)
Clinton can only dream of these kinds of spreads, Obama pushing 30pts - its huge. Those polls put up from OH with Obama pulling close to 10pts back - Hillary is going to have to win bigger than that. Obama has two weeks now to camp out in her backyard and throw a party. Her staff was saying she needs to win OH and TX. She needs to do more than that, she needs to win big.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Stoller, did you see Update #7? (0.00 / 0)
Maybe, just maybe, Stoller will stop demonizing the support for Obama.  Many of us are well-informed progressives.  Many of us were inspired by (a) Obama's history as a community organizer; and (b) his Dean-like, "it's not about me, it's about you" inclusiveness, to become active, some for the first time.  So, maybe it is time to acknowledge that we are on to something here, as progressives.

Plus (4.00 / 1)
(c) Clinton keeps telling us that we were wrong on the war, when she was wrong (and everyone knows it.) It's insulting.

Though I can't say that I've noticed Stoller being especially unfair to Obama and his supporters. Link?


[ Parent ]
No link (0.00 / 0)
Just "perceived slight syndrome."  Stoller hasn't been unfair.  I'm an Obama supporter, and my comments have an Obama bias.  Stoller is a Clinton supporter, and his diaries have a Clinton bias.  I have gotten the sense over the past few weeks that Stoller has implied that Obama is not as "progressive" as Clinton.  Now that I think about it, it is equally likely that I inferred it from pro-CLinton (but not anti-Obama) posts.

[ Parent ]
Be sure and save this comment for the day... (0.00 / 0)
.....President Obama appoints Joe the Liarman to SCOTUS. Obama has repeatedly made it crystal clear he has no use for 'progressives'. He's a Liebercrat thru and thru.

To him you and I are just nuisances of little importance in the story of The Mighty Obama.

Harsh?

Maybe, but why don't you go back to your nice warm couch and beer and SYFPH about Stoller. He's a true progressive.

Not a cultist.  

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


[ Parent ]
FWIW (4.00 / 1)
Lamont suppoted Obama in CT, which moved a lot of his base to support Barack over Hillary. Just sayin.

[ Parent ]
Cultist? (4.00 / 1)
1.  I would be willing to bet that I was walking precincts, knocking doors, and making calls for Democrats while you were still in diapers.  I walked precincts and made calls for every goddamned Democratic nominee for President from Jimmy Carter to John Kerry--and I'll do the same whether the nominee this time is Obama, or Clinton, or a surprise late entry!

2.  That's a pretty funny comment about my nice warm couch and my beer.  No doubt you will be sipping the finest Pinot and whining over HRC's losses tonight.  I will, as a matter of fact, sit on my nice warm, yet old (and not leather) couch (after a long day of fighting in the trenches to preserve the Constitution and the Bill of Rights against the government), and perhaps even enjoy a cold beer--maybe a PBR, or maybe a New Belgium La Folie, depending on my mood.

3.  I will stack my progressive values up against yours any day.  I campaigned and called for my preferred candidates, Christopher Dodd and Dennis Kucinich, before they dropped out.  Then, I supported Edwards.  Finally, using not only my knowledge as a summa cum laude graduate in political science, but also my analytical training and experience as a public defender defending the accused from government efforts to even  put people to death; and, yes, even listening to my "gut" instincts and my heart, I decided to support Obama.

4.  Only someone truly disconnected from reality would think that a person described by constitutional law professor Lawrence Tribe (Wikipedia it if you don't recognize the name) as his most gifted student ever, would appoint Joe Lieberman to the Supreme Court.

5.  Kiss my ass!  I didn't attack Stoller personally, just criticized him for denying the possibility that educated, informed progressives could actually back Obama.


[ Parent ]
Go Away little troll (4.00 / 1)
There is no place for you here.

[ Parent ]
Down ballot.... (0.00 / 0)
While it looks like Obama is helping give progressives strength down ballot here what happened to Mark Pera in IL?

Very similar elections.  


Not really (0.00 / 0)
The demos of the district and the candidates were much different.  Pera faced an uphill climb.

[ Parent ]
a serious question. (0.00 / 0)
Have we given up on universal health care?  Are we really going to just hope for it?  How do you see Obama bringing it about?  On Digby I read that now Donna Edwards has won the primary maybe Obama will see that the movement he has started is more progressive than he is and he'll follow along.  We get to hope again.  All I care about is universal health care, but I am tired of fighting.  We were so close this time, and you all threw it away.

Go ahead and blow me off, or scream at me how stupid I am, but this is a serious question and since you have taken up the torch I would like to know your plan.    


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