Pledged Delegate Count, 2/13

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:01


Here are the latest totals:

State Reporting C % O % Delegates Clinton Obama
P. Delegates 66.7% 46.2% 52.5% 2,171 993 1,135
Alabama 99% 42% 56% 52 25 27
Alaska 98% 25% 74% 13 4 9
Am. Samoa 100% 57% 42% 3 2 1
Arizona 98% 51% 42% 56 31 25
Arkansas 99% 70% 27% 35 27 8
California 100% 52% 43% 370 204 163
Colorado 99% 32% 67% 55 13 33
Connecticut 100% 47% 51% 48 22 26
Delaware 100% 42% 53% 15 6 9
D.C. 98% 24% 75% 15 3 11
Georgia 100% 31% 67% 87 26 61
Idaho 100% 17% 79% 18 3 15
Iowa 100% 29% 38% 45 15 16
Illinois 99% 33% 65% 153 49 104
Kansas 100% 26% 74% 32 9 23
Louisiana 100% 36% 57% 56 22 34
Maine 99% 40% 59% 24 9 15
Maryland 96% 37% 61% 70 24 43
Massachusetts 100% 56% 41% 93 55 38
Minnesota 94% 32% 67% 72 24 48
Missouri 100% 48% 49% 72 36 36
Nebraska 99% 32% 68% 24 8 16
Nevada 98% 51% 45% 25 12 13
New Hampshire 100% 39% 36% 22 9 9
New Jersey 99% 54% 44% 107 59 48
New Mexico 99% 49% 48% 26 14 12
New York 99% 57% 40% 232 138 93
North Dakota 100%. 37% 61% 13 5 8
Oklahoma 100% 55% 31% 38 24 14
South Carolina 99% 27% 55% 45 12 25
Tennessee 100% 54% 41% 68 40 28
Utah 99% 39% 57% 23 9 14
Virginia 99% 35% 64% 83 29 54
Virgin Islands 100% 8% 92% 3 0 3
Washington 96% 31% 68% 78 25 52


Popular vote count later today. Notes in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Pledged Delegate Count, 2/13
Notes
  1. Delegate counts are derived from the most recent numbers posted by one of CNN, MSNBC, or CBS news. The lone exception is in Colorado, where I have used MetaData's projections.
  2. Even though counting continues, I am projecting Hillary Clinton as the winner of New Mexico, and allocating her the one remaining delegate.
  3. The 30 remaining delegates from states with completed results are as follows: John Edwards (26), and Maryland (2). There are currently conflicting reports on the final Virginia delegate totals.
  4. Delegate counts for caucus states might alter following state conventions, which take place variously from March through May.
  5. The Michigan Democratic Party has claimed it will send a pledged delegate count of 73 Clinton, 55 uncommitted to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Michigan has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July. For more on the DNC credentials committee, click here.
  6. The Florida Democratic Party has claimed that it will send a pledged delegate count of 105 Clinton, 67 Obama, and 13 Edwards to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Florida has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July.
  7. There are 796 unlpledged, or "super" delegates, to the DNC convention. Historically, they have lined up behind the pledged delegate leader. In the event that there is no pledged delegate leader in June, they will come into play. In that "tiebreaker" event, Clinton currently holds a substantial advantage, 228-138.

    For more on a possible brokered convention, click here.


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LOLZ (0.00 / 0)
I was just in the process of assembling an update for my own personal use.  Ha ha.  I don't know why I bothered.  Thanks Chris.

So long as Hillary doesn't pull a Mondale... (0.00 / 0)
... poaching delegates between the primaries and the convention, as Mondale did to Hart in 1984.

Esepcially in the caucus states, there's a lot of gaming that can come in to play before the national delegates are actually selected.

Generalist.


All indications (4.00 / 1)
say she will try.

[ Parent ]
Better practice saying: (0.00 / 0)
President McCain - if Clinton "games" this nomination and steals it.  Personally, I don't think Clinton is that pathologically ambitious - she's not that old - she can wait 8 years for another shot at the WH.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
So let me get this straight (0.00 / 0)
IF Michigan and Florida were counted, it would net a +111 delegate bump to Clinton (less if the Uncommitteds in Michigan vote for Obama in any number.)

Obama is 135 delegates up as of this count.

... and still, we have to put up with the nonsense "Clinton still ahead!!!!" diaries from MyDD?


The vitriol on MyDD is really shocking (0.00 / 0)
Well, MyDD doesn't exactly provide much by way objective election coverage anymore.

But there's also the fact that I'm seeing several different delegate counts, even when looking just for pledged-delegate-only counts that do not include Michigan or Florida. I'm actually quite curious about why this is, since it doesn't seem to make any sense. Chris' count is by the far the most favorable to Obama that I've yet seen, and considering his record with number crunching that makes me quite hopeful.

Being ahead in pledged delegates even w/ MI and FL getting counted is probably the magic number for Obama, since at that point he is/would be winning by every solid measure.


[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
What happened in Alabama? That's some really bad delegate math for him there. (Though not, perhaps, as bad as Nevada was for Clinton).

Campaign hopes for clinton (4.00 / 1)
Howard Fineman (MSNBC) said last night that HRC's best hope was to get the pd gap down to about 30 before the convention.  He got this from inside her campaign!  Then, they would try to get the sd's and the FL/MI thing to fall their way.  This is their strategy?  I was stunned that anyone inside her campaign would admit this.  They admitted that it was vitually impossible for her to overtake him in pd's, all they can do is try to widdle it down.  The cutting into his pd lead is brainlessly obvious, but to admit that best case scenario might be 30 pd's down and then trying to swing it with sd's and MI/FL.  I can't see how this plays well with voters at all.  Anybody else see his report.  I saw it two different times.    

FTR (0.00 / 0)
He needs a 70-30 split in the remaining states to win outright with PDs.  SO he will need SDs too.

[ Parent ]
I'm struck with the same thoughts as yesterday: (0.00 / 0)
In a primary with proportional allocation of delegates, how does Clinton catch Obama? Can she get the Obama-like margins of victory in Texas and Ohio needed to catch him?

I can't see it (4.00 / 2)
Clearly, I think you have to see the moves the Clinton campaign is making now as trying to keep the PD's reletively close, and then swing enough of the superdelegatese to their side, along with somehow seating the current totals from MI and FL, while ensuring the 55 uncommited don't go to Obama. It's a hail mary, in other words.

1. Keep delegates close.

2. Divide the superdelegates by delegitamizing Obama's path to the nomination (i.e. caucuses undemocratic, can't win big states, etc) and claiming her polarizing persona and ruthlessness to be a virtue in winning the nomination and passing progressive legislation.

3. Since the creditials commitee will be controlled by Dean's and the PD leader (likely Obama), find a way to get FL and MI seated in a convention floor fight.  

If its worth doing this much damage to the party, god help us.

The Politics of Bruno S.


[ Parent ]
add upcoming states (4.00 / 2)
Hey Chris, at the bottom of these tables, could you add the upcoming states and how many delegates they are worth?

Chris: (4.00 / 1)
At TPMCafe, JMM posted an open thread on delegate situation.  One commenter noted that even if the side with the most pledged delegates controls the creditials commitee, the other side can issue an minority report and refer the contested delegates from MI and FL to the convention for a floor fight.  

Do you know if this is true?

The Politics of Bruno S.


I don't know (4.00 / 1)
But I will look into it

[ Parent ]
Yes (0.00 / 0)
There has to be 25% of the committee behind the "minority report," but if they can get to 25%, it will go to the floor.

[ Parent ]
But (4.00 / 1)
... it doesn't look like Clinton's on track to control 25% of the state delegations to begin with, at the rate she's going.

[ Parent ]
Obama's numbers: (0.00 / 0)
Obama 1139 & Clinton 1003

Superdelegates (0.00 / 0)
Aren't something like half of the SDs still uncommitted?  

There are 795 superdelegates (0.00 / 0)
(maybe 794 now that Lieberman lost his status?), and only ~300 or so are generally counted as committed, so it would appear a lot of them are either still torn or just waiting for a popular winner to emerge

[ Parent ]
It seems that (0.00 / 0)
Most of the SD are either elected or at least heavily voter influenced.  As such some of the Clinton pledged delegates are going to be under a lot of pressure.  This is the force of these landslide victories.  And once a few go that's it, the rest will follow, because even the Clintons can't expect loyalty at that level.  

Here in Texas I gotta believe that the boys in the back room are getting pretty nervous. They are expected to hold on to this thing for the Clintons but they will not be able to.

I also have to believe that there is enough common sense somewhere in the party to see what letting this keep going is going to hurt the party all the way down the ballot.  They are watching those numbers and seeing that the Obama coattails are long and likely to be enduring.  I would think that we will see some big time endorsements for Obama soon just to help bring this to an end.  I know that Gore is committed to playing the impartial statesman but he could continue in that role by putting Clinton out of her (and our) misery.  Of course Edwards also has this ability.  I just have to believe that these people are getting lots of phone calls.


Does Edwards Really Have 26 Pledged Delegates? (0.00 / 0)
My personal spreadsheet keeps disagreeing with the ones I see in the media--and I think the reason is that people seem to have forgotten this:

As expected, Edwards said he was suspending his campaign rather than ending it, but aides said that was simply legal terminology so that he can continue to receive federal matching funds for his campaign donations.

An immediate impact of Edwards' withdrawal will be six additional delegates for Obama, giving him a total of 187, and four more for Clinton, giving her 253. A total of 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

Edwards won 26 delegates in the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina contests. Under party rules, 10 of those delegates will be automatically dispersed among Obama and Clinton, based on their vote totals in those respective contests. The remaining 16 remain pledged to Edwards, meaning his campaign will have a say in naming them.

Three superdelegates - mainly party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can support whomever they choose - had already switched from Edwards to Obama before news of Edwards' withdrawal from the race.


(Emphasis added, obviously.) The above article is from AP, but I saw this same point made in several other pieces when Edwards dropped out.

If those news accounts are correct, there are 16 outstanding Edwards delegates, not 26--and Obama has an additional +2 from the ten delegates that have been re-allocated.

Right?


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