After last night's results, here is an updated PDF showing the various popular vote counts that are possible right now:
Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign Popular Vote Counts
Obama now leads in all five counts that I am tracking:
Straight and Narrow Count: Popular votes plus state delegates, no Michigan or Florida
Best Possible Obama Count: Popular votes plus estimated popular support from caucus attendees in states that only counted delegates. No Michigan or Florida
Best Possible Clinton Count: Popular votes plus state delegates plus Michigan and Florida
Broadest Possible Count: Popular votes plus estimated popular caucus support plus Florida plus estimated Michigan support with Obama on ballot
Mixed Broad Count: Popular votes plus Michigan and Florida plus estimated caucus popular support
Combined with the pledged delegate counts, numbers like these indicate that if Obama sweeps the next six states through March 4th, then the campaign is over. Clinton needs wins in at least some of the following: Hawaii, Wisconsin, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont. If she fails to win at least some of those states, she can take it to the convention and argue about super delegates, Michigan and Florida all she wants, but it won't matter. At that point, super delegates will defect en masse, and the credentials committee will belong to Obama. In fact, Obama would probably lead even with Michigan, Florida and super delegates factored in. If Clinton does manage to win some of those states, then we are heading into the Pennsylvania Interval.
Update: In the interests of pointing out something more substantive, once Obama takes a lead of 202 in pledged delegates (currently 135 by my count), and is ahead in all of these different counts, then we will have a presumptive nominee.