Barack Obama has had a fantastic week, sweeping the six states and two territories to hold contests since Super Tuesday. Further, he has done so by large amounts, with a 19% victory in Maine actually being the closest contest this week. He has soared to a triple digit lead in pledged delegates, maintains an advantage in fundraising, and has an advantage on the ground in most states left to vote. The momentum is clearly moving his way as he has pulled narrowly ahead in national polling (see Rasmussen and Gallup), and he is even starting to win super delegate endorsements at a much faster rate than Hillary Clinton. And yet, despite all of this, a look at the campaign over the next three weeks indicates that the pressure is squarely, if not overwhelmingly, on Obama to win Wisconsin this coming Tuesday.
Check out the polling situation between now and March 4th, keeping in mind that all polls were taken after Edwards dropped out of the campaign:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
| State |
Date |
Polls |
Obama |
Clinton |
P. Delegates |
| P. Delegates |
Jun 7 |
35 |
1,137 |
1,002 |
3,253 / 3,566 |
| Democrats Abroad |
Feb 12 |
0 |
-- |
-- |
7 |
| Hawaii |
Feb 19 |
0 |
-- |
-- |
20 |
| Wisconsin |
Feb 19 |
4 |
45.8% |
43.3% |
74 |
| Ohio |
Mar 04 |
3 |
36.7% |
53.0% |
141 |
| Rhode Island |
Mar 04 |
1 |
28.0% |
36.0% |
21 |
| Texas |
Mar 04 |
1 |
38.0% |
48.0% |
193 |
| Vermont |
Mar 04 |
0 |
-- |
-- |
15 |
Take a particularly close look at Wisconsin and Ohio polling. All of the polling included in those averages was conducted after Super Tuesday, and most of it was conducted after Obama's weekend victories. In other words, despite his momentum, Obama still faces a significant deficit in Ohio, and is only narrowly ahead in Wisconsin. Perhaps the Potomac primary results have shifted the situation somewhat, but today Rasmussen conducted post-Potomac polls of both states. Obama only led by four in Wisconsin, and trailed by fourteen in Ohio.
It is pretty safe to say that Obama is still well behind in Ohio, and that he probably has no way to make up the ground there unless he wins Wisconsin. With Obama only holding a narrow lead in Wisconsin, it is entirely conceivable that Clinton pulls out a victory there. If Clinton were to win Wisconsin, momentum could reverse on a dime, or at least stop altogether. At that point, it is hard to see how Obama catches up in Ohio. Hawaii probably won't impact the narrative very much, since it will not have results until well after Wisconsin. Democrats Abroad probably won't impact the narrative at all when they finally announce results on February 21st. Debates, of which there will be two between Wisconsin and March 4th, have never been particularly helpful to Obama. Further, Clinton is still going all-out in advertisements, and drawing crowds of 10,000 plus in March 4th states.
Clinton also leads in Rhode Island and Texas, at least according to what little polling information we have from the two states. A victory in Wisconsin would also solidify her position in those two states. If Clinton wins Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Wisconsin, then Obama's pledged delegate lead probably drops to double-digits heading into the six-week interval, with Pennsylvania, super delegates, and fights over Michigan and Florida looming. The campaign would remain a dead heat, but Obama's momentum would be stopped and Clinton would start with a large advantage in the closed primary state of Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin is really a huge, huge primary. Without a victory in Wisconsin, there might not be anyway for Obama to seal the campaign before Pennsylvania, and possibly even June or ever. Wisconsin also remains close, with Obama only holding a 2.5% advantage across four polls. Clinton can absolutely make up that ground over the next five days. If she does, the advantage in the campaign could swing back in her direction. Wisconsin is a must-win for Obama. |
