Pledged Delegate Count, 2/20

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 13:20


Here are the latest totals:

State Reporting C % O % Delegates Clinton Obama
P. Delegates 69.8% 45.4% 52.6% 2,272 1,033.5 1,194.5
Alabama 100% 42% 56% 52 25 27
Alaska 100% 25% 74% 13 4 9
Am. Samoa 100% 57% 42% 3 2 1
Arizona 100% 51% 42% 56 31 25
Arkansas 100% 70% 27% 35 27 8
California 100% 52% 43% 370 203 163
Colorado 99% 32% 67% 55 13 33
Connecticut 100% 47% 51% 48 22 26
Delaware 100% 42% 53% 15 6 9
Dems Abroad 100% 33% 65% 7 2.5 4.5
D.C. 100% 24% 75% 15 3 12
Georgia 100% 31% 67% 87 26 61
Hawaii 100% 24% 76% 20 6 14
Idaho 100% 17% 79% 18 3 15
Iowa 100% 29% 38% 45 15 16
Illinois 99% 33% 65% 153 49 104
Kansas 100% 26% 74% 32 9 23
Louisiana 100% 36% 57% 56 22 34
Maine 99% 40% 59% 24 9 15
Maryland 99% 37% 61% 70 24 42
Massachusetts 100% 56% 41% 93 55 38
Minnesota 99% 32% 67% 72 24 48
Missouri 100% 48% 49% 72 36 36
Nebraska 100% 32% 68% 24 8 16
Nevada 100% 51% 45% 25 12 13
New Hampshire 100% 39% 36% 22 9 9
New Jersey 100% 54% 44% 107 59 48
New Mexico 100% 49% 48% 26 14 12
New York 99% 57% 40% 232 138 93
North Dakota 100%. 37% 61% 13 5 8
Oklahoma 100% 55% 31% 38 24 14
South Carolina 100% 27% 55% 45 12 25
Tennessee 100% 54% 41% 68 40 28
Utah 100% 39% 57% 23 9 14
Virginia 99% 35% 64% 83 29 54
Virgin Islands 100% 8% 92% 3 0 3
Washington 96% 31% 68% 78 26 52
Wisconsin 99% 41% 58% 74 32 42

Including 7 pledged delegates from Democrats Abroad, 14 Edwards delegates from Iowa, and 23 from other states that have yet to report full, con-contradictory delegate totals, 459 pledged delegates will be determined between now and March 15th.

Notes on this table can be found in the extended entry.  

Chris Bowers :: Pledged Delegate Count, 2/20
Notes
  • Delegate counts are derived from the highest, non-contradictory count for each state as presented by Democratic Convention Watch's Ultimate Delegate Tracker.
  • The remaining 44 delegates from states with completed results are as follows: Iowa (14), John Edwards (12), Colorado (9), California (4), Maryland (4), and New York (1). Outside of the Edwards and Iowa delegates, the remaining delegates are from states where counting has not yet finished, or where there are conflicting delegate allocation reports.
  • Delegate counts for caucus states might alter following county, district and state party conventions, which take place variously from March through June. Click here for a schedule of state conventions.
  • The Michigan Democratic Party has claimed it will send a pledged delegate count of 73 Clinton, 55 uncommitted to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Michigan has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July. For more on the DNC credentials committee, click here.
  • The Florida Democratic Party has claimed that it will send a pledged delegate count of 105 Clinton, 67 Obama, and 13 Edwards to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Florida has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July.
  • There are 796 unlpledged, or "super" delegates, to the DNC convention, plus another 54 from Michigan and Florida. Historically, they have lined up behind the pledged delegate leader. In the event that there is no pledged delegate leader in June, they will come into play. In that "tiebreaker" event, Clinton currently holds a substantial advantage, 238--165.5.
  • For more on a possible brokered convention, click here.

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Have you seen (0.00 / 0)
the delegate tracker at Obama's site? Fairly similar to yours, although it has more allocated to both Clinton and Obama.

Thanks taylormattd (0.00 / 0)
I've been looking for something like this.  I think the "methodology" used by a lot of major news outlets (that DemConWatch uses for delegate counts) is faulty because it is more incomplete than it needs to be.

I've been playing with delegate calculations myself and was astonished to see that I came up with the same numbers the Obama campaign did for Wisconsin:  42-32.  As an Obama supporter I would be much happier with +12 that the grid above currently shows, but +10 looks highly probable.  Granted that ALL precincts have not finished yet.  But based on where numbers currently sit and how far they would need to move to change the delegate count it is fairly safe to say that 42-32 will be the final, official result.

So I'm wondering why can't we project a number in pledged delegates for a state like Wisconsinn at this point?  After all many other states' numbers are subject to multi-tier caucus processes (that's why the NYT is off), some districts not being counted yet, some absentee ballots not being counted yet or even simply not having an official count yet.  Many of the numbers a subject to change for one reason or another.

Just a few days ago we saw a shift in California pledged delegates and superdelegates numbers are constantly shifting from one candidate to another.

I think the projection method the Obama campaign is doing is quite sound.  And based on my observation over the weeks, I think they are doing it cautiously and conservatively.  I plan to rely on their numbers.

Thanks again for the link.


[ Parent ]
Can Obama officially "seal" the nomination? (0.00 / 0)
Here's a question (which I could probably answer myself, but have been too lazy to look up ;) ).

For the sake of argument, lets assume that Clinton and Obama basically split the delegates from OH and TX.  If Clinton drops out of the race at this point (which of course would result in an Obama nomination anyway), are there enough delegates left for Obama to "sweep" the races and actually gather enough pledged delegates to "clinch" the nomination, without the help of Super Delegates?

I know that it wouldn't really matter, since, if Clinton drops out the Super Delegates would obviously give the race to the only one left standing, but I was just curious about that math.  In a way, I feel like this would still be psychologically "preferable" to people because it would completely remove Super Delegates from the equation.


Hey Chris (0.00 / 0)
Think you will have the up-to-date popular vote numbers to post sometime today?  

Don't think so (0.00 / 0)
Maybe tomorrow, though.  

[ Parent ]
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