General Election Swing (and other) State Polling

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 14:11


No matter whether the Democratic nomination campaign ends on March 4th, or whether it continues on to Pennsylvania on April 22nd, the transition to the general election has begun. For example, state polls for the general election has now more common than state polls for the primary. Check out the latest wave of Survey USA and Rasmussen IVR polls in more than a dozen states:

Alabama (Survey USA)
McCain 57%--37% Clinton
McCain 58%-34% Obama

California (Survey USA)
Obama 61%--34% McCain
Clinton 58%--35% McCain

Colorado (Rasmussen)
Obama 46%--39% McCain
McCain 49%--35% Clinton

Florida (Quinnipiac, Rasmussen)
McCain 44%--42% Clinton
McCain 41%--39% Obama

McCain 49%--43% Clinton
McCain 53%--37% Obama

Iowa (Survey USA, Rasmussen)
Obama 51%--41% McCain
McCain 52%--41% Clinton

Obama 44%--41% McCain
McCain 47%--37% Clinton

Kansas (Survey USA)
McCain 50%--44% Obama
McCain 59%--35% Clinton

Massachusetts (Survey USA)
Clinton 52%--43% McCain
Obama 48%--46% McCain
(WTF bay staters? Does Dawson have a crush on McCain or something?)

Michigan (Rasmussen)
Obama 47%--39% McCain
Clinton 44%--44% McCain

Minnesota (Survey USA, Rasmussen)
Obama 55%--40% McCain
Clinton 40%--45% McCain

Obama 53%--38% McCain
McCain 47%--42% Clinton

Missouri (Survey USA, Rasmussen)
Clinton 51%--44% McCain
Obama 49%--43% McCain

McCain 43%--42% Clinton
McCain 42%--40% Obama

Nevada (Rasmussen)
Obama 50%--38% McCain
McCain 49%--48% Clinton

New Hampshire (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%--36% McCain
Clinton 43%--41% McCain

New Mexico (Survey USA)
Obama 55%--40% McCain
Clinton 50%--45% McCain

New York Surey USA)
Obama 57%--36% McCain
Clinton 52%--41% McCain

Ohio (Quinnipiac, Survey USA, Rasmussen)
McCain 44%--43% Clinton
McCain 42%--40% Obama

Clinton 52%--42% McCain
Obama 47%--44% McCain

McCain 42%--41% Obama
McCain 46%--43% Clinton

Oregon (Survey USA, Rasmussen)
Obama 48%--47% McCain
McCain 49%--41% Clinton

Obama 49%--40% McCain
McCain 45%-42% Clinton

Pennsylvania (Qunnipiac, Rasmussen)
Clinton 46%--40% McCain
Obama 42%--41% McCain

Obama 49%--39% McCain
McCain 44%--42% Clinton

Virginia (Survey USA, Rasmussen)
Obama 51%--45% McCain
McCain 48%--45% Clinton

McCain 49%--44% Obama
McCain 51%--41% Clinton

If there were Wisconsin polls, this would be just about a complete survey of swing states. Compared to Clinton, Obama holds an overall polling advantage against McCain, but Clinton keeps it close by polling better in Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. If Clinton were to start winning some primaries, her general election polling would also improve.

And seriously, WTF is going on in Massachusetts?

Update: From commenter schul:

Wisconsin (Survey USA)
Obama 52--McCain 42
McCain 49--Clinton 42

Update 2: I also added some slightly older Quinnipiac numbers for a little more context. Hat tip: fladem.
Chris Bowers :: General Election Swing (and other) State Polling

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General Election Swing (and other) State Polling | 29 comments
Wouldn't that be hilarious? (0.00 / 0)
A Democrat winning the WH by picking up VA, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH and LOSING Massachusetts!
Mass (0.00 / 0)
It's the Romney endorsement! We have to face it, Massachussetts is lost in November, there is just no stopping a candidate endorsed by Romney in a state where Romney once lived.

Just kidding. It's obviously a statistical blip. But hey, if McCain wants to spend some of his precious limited funds there, fine by me.

Mountain States? (0.00 / 0)
no stopping a candidate endorsed by Romney in a state where Romney once lived

Does that mean we're going to give up on winning Utah?

[ Parent ]
Interesting, but this will all change.... (0.00 / 0)
once Dems have a nominee. So I take it with a grain of salt and a heavy dose of skepticism. Just like the polls before Iowa and NH!

Certainly not a reason to vote for one of the two. Electability is a slippery concept.

Timing of the Polls (0.00 / 0)
were they conducted before or after the NYT story?
all before (0.00 / 0)
I believe they were all conduced from February 10th-February 17th. That would make them all before the story.  
[ Parent ]
Good (0.00 / 0)
that certainly makes them more indicative of where they really are or will be.
[ Parent ]
What about NC, GA, MS, and TX? (0.00 / 0)
Isn't there at least some chance that Obama can put those states into play? He's winning 2/3s of the Latino vote in NM, 3/4ths in CA. McCain doesn't appear to have any goodwill there. And we have no idea what African-American turnout will be in the South with Obama on the ticket.
Patrick (4.00 / 1)
Deval Patrick, who ran on the same themes as Obama, isn't exactly super popular in the Bay State. Residents may be thinking that they're going to get the same kind of ineffectiveness with Obama that they got with Patrick. I certainly think that this played a role in Clinton's primary victory in the state and is probably playing a role in keeping Obama's numbers down.
Can you tell us .. (0.00 / 0)
more about what happened?  Why is he disliked so much now?
[ Parent ]
re: patrick (4.00 / 1)
he got in some hot water for some spending on upgrading the gov's office & entourage right when he took office. It knocked him down a bit, but he was still above water.

In december, SurveyUSA had him at 48-42. A lot of people are grumbling about the health insurance plan. I mean, there is broad support for it, but a lot of that is probably grudging support. Patrick is taking some of the blame.

[ Parent ]
Time to stop looking at polls for (0.00 / 0)
a few days and hit the MCCAIN IS SWIMMING IN A CESSPOOL OF LOBBYISTS story over and over again.
well (0.00 / 0)
as has been the case for some time the story line is going to be the whole "experience" vs "no experience" BS line.  Maybe hit the old, McCains experience is in swimming in a cesspool of lobbyists, McCain is "in bed" with washington lobbyists.  We shall see!
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Poll (4.00 / 4)
SUSA - poll (published 2/18)

Obama 52 - McCain 42
McCain 49 - Clinton 42

John McCain hates children. Expose McCain!  

thank you (0.00 / 0)
updated
[ Parent ]
these are reassuring (0.00 / 0)
It certainly seems there is a good shot in Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, and some other states.  Florida seems to be slipping further out reach each election, so it is good to know we have some good targets.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Boston? (0.00 / 0)
Historically, Boston had the reputation of being a rather racist city, what with the busing riots and the history of the Red Sox as arguable the most resistant team to integration.  Could this play a part?
Numbers look good (0.00 / 0)
I would have to say the electability argument continues to gain traction with these state-by-state polls that are coming out. Obama certainly matches up much more favorably than Clinton does.
You are missing the Quinnipiac Polling (0.00 / 0)
of Ohio, Pa and Florida:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x288...

Quinnipiac was pretty good in 2004, and I have been generally impressed with them through the years in polling Florida.

One thing I am working on is a comparison of how Obama does versus McCain depending on whether the primary has been completed yet.  The intuition is that Obama's GE numbers improve once he has campaigned in the state.  Eg of this include Iowa and Missouri.

Florida
McCain 44, Clinton 42
McCain 41, Obama 39

Penn
Clinton 46, Obama 40
Obama 42, Clinton 41

Ohio
McCain 44, Clinton 43
McCain 42, Obama 40

Susa polls so frequently that they produce outliers - as they should given polling theory.  In 2004 they had one poll showing Kerry up only 3 - and everyone freaked out.

My guess is we are seeing the same thing with the Mass number.

SUSA (0.00 / 0)
Was pretty accurate when is came to the Dem. primary in Mass., even though they were widely mocked before...

John McCain hates children. Expose McCain!  
[ Parent ]
It is very early (0.00 / 0)
but generally this news is not the least bit surprising.

Obama has a chance to win in a landslide, something akin to Clinton's '96 reelection. With a party split down through several seams, and with limited resources and popularity, and going up against a candidate like Obama capable of massively increasing turnout, the Republicans will find themselves scrambling to hold the reddest of states.

I stress that this is just one possible chance out of very many. But it is plausible nonetheless.

Do you mean an Electoral College landslide? (4.00 / 1)
Because I don't think Clinton broke 50% in the popular vote in '96 (three-way race and all).
[ Parent ]
Yep. n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
hmmm! (0.00 / 0)
Obama is polling much better than Clinton at this point. Maybe thisis due to his winning streak of 11-0 but considering his potential upshot, he would be a better general election candidate than Hillary who has total name recognition. Remember she has 35 years of experience as Goldwater girl, Walmart board member, and first lady.  

ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB
A bit of Seseame Street... (0.00 / 0)
Remember she has 35 years of experience as Goldwater girl, Walmart board member, and first lady.

One of these things is not like the others.  One of these things just doesn't belong.  Two of these things are, arguably, bad things to have been.  The third is not.

(Actually, another of these things doesn't really belong: The Goldwater Girl bit predates the era she includes in her 35 years of experience.)

[ Parent ]
These surveys are misleading (4.00 / 1)
None of the surveys take into account the enormous turnout that Barack Obama will produce in the general election, nor do they take into account the only token turnout you'll see for John McCain.

This election is going to be one of the biggest landslides in US history, the Republicans are going to lose states that they haven't lost in 30 years, it's going to be such an overwhelming victory for Barack Obama and the Democrats that it will take the Republicans 20 years to recover from the embarrassment.

PS thanks for all the troll ratings, I hold them up as a badge of honor here and on Markos blog. Please give me more.  :-)

I hope you're right (0.00 / 0)
I'm also thinking that the Obama campaign will or should launch the largest voter registration drive of this generation.  That will bring us all sorts of voters that are off the radar of traditional campaigns.
[ Parent ]
massachusetts (0.00 / 0)
clinton does well in democratic machine states, no doubt this will change in favor of Obama once he wins.
General Election Swing (and other) State Polling | 29 comments
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