Here are the latest numbers, with all polls conducted entirely since the February 12th Potomac Primary:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
38
1,194.5
1,032.5
3,253 / 3,566
Ohio
Mar 04
7
41.4%
49.6%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
2
39.0%
52.5%
21
Texas
Mar 04
8
45.8%
47.5%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
2
58.5%
33.5%
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
0
--
--
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
0
--
--
33
Iowa*
Mar 15
0
--
--
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
2
34.0%
48.0%
158
Guam
May 03
0
--
--
4
Indiana
May 06
0
--
--
72
North Carolina
May 06
3
45.7%
37.0%
115
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
The March 4th polling situation appears to be stabilizing. Obama is way ahead in Vermont, and will score an easy victory there. Clinton appears to have decent leads in Ohio and Rhode Island, the former of which is slowly shrinking while the latter remains stable. Texas is very close, but Obama will almost certainly win the delegate count there because 1/3 of the delegates are determined via caucus and because Clinton tends to be strongest in four-delegate districts that are very difficult to score a 3-1 edge. Toss in Wyoming and Mississippi in the week following March 4th, and it is hard to see how Clinton makes up any ground in pledged delegates between now and Pennsylvania.
I think commenters are correct when they write that the outcome of the popular vote in the Texas primary will play a big role in determining whether or not Clinton continues on to Pennsylvania. Bill Clinton indicated as much today when he said the following about the caucuses:
The doors open at 7 and they close at 7:15. It would be tragic if Hillary were to win this election in the daytime and somebody were to come in at night and take it away.
Clearly, the Clinton campaign is laying the groundwork to declare victory in Texas solely on the basis of the primary vote, not the caucus or delegate count. While I still think that Hillary Clinton will continue on to Pennsylvania as long as she wins Ohio, I grant it is possible she drops out if she loses the primary vote in Texas.
