Here is some more context to my conclusion in today's nomination at a glance post that the Democratic nomination campaign is pretty much over. Using the poll averages from that post, here is the best possible delegate scenario for Clinton between now and May 6th:
| State |
Date |
Obama |
Clinton |
P. Delegates |
Clinton Poll Margin |
| P. Delegates |
Jun 7 |
1,194.5 |
1,032.5 |
3,253 |
-- |
| Ohio |
Mar 04 |
64 |
77 |
141 |
+7.3% |
| Rhode Island |
Mar 04 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
+13.5% |
| Texas P |
Mar 04 |
63 |
63 |
126 |
-1.0% |
| Texas C |
Mar 04 |
38 |
29 |
67 |
-- |
| Vermont |
Mar 04 |
9 |
6 |
15 |
-25.0% |
| Wyoming |
Mar 08 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
-- |
| Mississippi |
Mar 11 |
18 |
15 |
33 |
-- |
| Iowa* |
Mar 15 |
7 |
7 |
14 |
-- |
| Pennsylvania |
April 22 |
68 |
90 |
158 |
+14.0% |
| Guam |
May 03 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
-- |
| Indiana |
May 06 |
41 |
31 |
72 |
-15.0% |
| North Carolina |
May 06 |
62 |
53 |
115 |
-8.7% |
| Total |
NA |
387 |
391 |
778 |
-- |
I derived all of these numbers by taking the current polling margin in each state, multiplying that margin by the number of pledged delegates in each state, and then rounding up favor of Clinton. In the case of caucus events, for which there are no polls, I used the numbers from Maine, Clinton's best February caucus states, as a proxy. In the case of Mississippi, I used the delegate results from Alabama, which Clinton only lost by 2 despite a 14% popular vote defeat, as a guide. (The three delegate victory for Obama in Mississippi comes from that state having a higher percentage of African-Americans in its primary electorate than Alabama.) In the case of Guam, I used American Samoa as a guide, and then heavily rounded up in favor of Clinton.
However, even in this favorable scenario, the delegate math still does not add up for Clinton. Obama still ends up with a pledged delegate lead of 158.5 after May 6th, at which point only 217 pledged delegates remain (plus another 23 still floating around from states that have already held nominating contests). Overall, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will be able to reduce Obama's pledged delegate advantage to below 150 before the convention. If things go exceptionally well for her and surpass even these already rosy projections, then she will still have to make up at least 130 delegates from Florida, Michigan, superdelegates and Edwards delegates. That doesn't seem very likely in and of itself, but it is still her best case scenario based on current polling.
Clinton now faces an insurmountable pledged delegate deficit. At this point, her only path to the nomination is to vastly outperform polling in most remaining states, and then utterly dominate Obama among superdelegates / uncommitted delegates and also to receive favorable rulings from the credentials committee. However, Obama has more regularly outperformed polling than Clinton, the credentials committee is largely controlled by whoever wins the most pledged delegates, and even all of the superdelegate momentum is in favor of Obama, where he has reduced Clinton's advantage by a net of 33 superdelegates in just two weeks. All of these contingencies are unlikely on their own, but Clinton needs all of them to combine in a perfect storm.
Given all of this, I have conclude that Obama has greater than a 95% chance of winning the nomination at this point. It now feels to me as though we are just killing time, or perhaps engaging in a one-week farewell tour, until the inevitable takes hold. Clinton might continue on to Pennsylvania, but at this point I can barely see how that will make any difference for her chances. The Obama campaign has simply proven too effective in too many ways. My proverbial hat goes off to them. |
