OH-10: Kucinich Looks Safe For Re-election

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 13:52


I am relieved to report that Kucinich appears safe for re-election in OH-10, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling:

Kucinich does though appear safe to ward off the challenge he is facing from four challengers in the Democratic primary. Kucinich is currently at 55%, followed by Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman at 29%. The other three candidates register at 5% or lower.(...)

While self identified Democrats intend to reelect Kucinich by a wide margin (59-26), Republicans and independents who are planning to vote in the Democratic primary are not as enamored with him. He trails Cimperman 45-34 with independent voters and has just a 45-35 advantage with Republican voters.

PPP surveyed 470 likely Democratic primary voters on February 25th. The survey's margin of errors is +/-4.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Defeating an incumbent in a primary is just about the most difficult electoral challenge someone can undertake. Kucinich put himself in a potentially vulnerable position by spending so much time running for President, and by using his national small donor base to focus almost entirely on his Presidential campaign. If he was defeated, it would have damaged much of the momentum progressives earned from the Donna Edwards victory, but that does not appear to be a big worry now.

While this wasn't the campaign to become involved with, given the corporate and Republican money Cimperman was raising against Kucinich, at some point it is probably a good idea for the blogosphere to become involved in a primary challenge against a member of the progressive caucus. So far, from what I can tell, the Edwards victory is having much more of an impact on the Congressional Black Caucus than it is on the wider  House caucus. It might be necessary to defeat a member from every caucus, such as Ed Fallon defeating Blue Dog Leonard Boswell, in order for these primary challenges to create the desired behavioral change among congressional Democrats. And every caucus means Blue Dogs, New Dems, Progressives, the CBC, and the Hispanic caucus.  
Chris Bowers :: OH-10: Kucinich Looks Safe For Re-election

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OH-10: Kucinich Looks Safe For Re-election | 18 comments
Implicit in your argument... (0.00 / 0)
is that there are members of the Progressive Caucus who suck worse than the average Dem. Is that really true? My gut reaction is that it would be a poor choice of energy and resources to work to oust a progressive. What am I missing here?

miasmo.com
I don't think that is the only conclusion (4.00 / 1)
I think the argument is simply that there are members of the progressive caucus who could potentially be replaced by better local representatives. The argument is relative to the district, not the Democratic caucus as a whole.  
[ Parent ]
Okay, I see your point. (4.00 / 1)
I think from a practical standpoint, though, you will have a hard time getting people like me to contribute money to oust a progressive outside of their local area. I gave money to Mark Pera and Donna Edwards. I just can't see myself parting with money to defeat anyone but the most corrupt dickheads. But then again, I'm not everybody. I can see the logic of the strategy, but I would target all of the other mentioned caucuses first. If that ever happens, things will already have changed substantially.

miasmo.com
[ Parent ]
You're missing the implied threat (4.00 / 1)
You strike fear into politician's hearts by telling them that no one is safe from a primary challenge.  No past performance will save you from screwing up in the here and now.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both
[ Parent ]
Congressional Black Caucus (0.00 / 0)
So far, from what I can tell, the Edwards victory is having much more of an impact on the Congressional Black Caucus than it is on the wider  House caucus.

Does anyone have any concrete examples of improved behavior? That would be really encouraging to see. My Rep (until they recently reconfigured the districts) was John Lewis. He is great on most issues, but he seemed to kind of suck on telecom issues. I have had several long arguments with his main technology staffer over net neutrality. The guy had totally bought into all the telecom lobbyist talking points. I doubt John Lewis will ever have to worry about losing his seat, so maybe he's not a good example, but has anyone seen any concrete changes in rhetoric or voting from anyone in the black caucus since Edwards' victory?

miasmo.com

No "improved behavior" yet by CBC; still in anger & denial phase... (4.00 / 1)
I assume that Chris is thinking of last week's post by Matt Stoller, on the CBC's anger at SEIU for their strong support for Donna Edwards.  Hopefully this will all lead to improved behavior by CBC members, but right now they are apparently in the early stages of some kind of 5-stages-of-loss dynamic.  Gotta keep the heat on, I reckon.

By the way, Leutisha Stills of CBC Monitor just came out with a very good article over at Black Agenda Report on this very thing.  Also, CBC Monitor released their most recent CBC report card in January -- the 7-page .pdf report card is here, and the related article in BAR is here.

Keep your mind free and clear, Donna Edwards, and don't sell your soul.

[ Parent ]
I swear, Chris, (0.00 / 0)
sometimes I think the very sight of "Kucinich" makes your brain melt down into a chaotic slurry. First you share a sigh of relief that Kucinich looks OK, then promote the idea of attacking progressive caucus members and sound like that would be Kucinich except for his opponent's GOP money. I guess in some land of eternal uv-free sunshine and roses, we could afford to go after congressional lefties. Until that day dawns, however, I'll stick with the likes of Markey and Lieberman, thank you.
What horeshit (0.00 / 0)
"sometimes I think the very sight of "Kucinich" makes your brain melt down into a chaotic slurry."

What horseshit. You have repeatedly accused me of not liking Kucinich for policy reasons, without citing a single example that I did such. And so instead you just go on to accuse me of having some sort of brain defect when it comes to Kucinich.

Kucinich pisses me off because off because he isn't doing enough, or really anything, to build up the progressive movement. I've made that clear on several occasions. If you refuse to ever debate that point on its merits, I don't understand the purpose of talking to you about this at all.  

[ Parent ]
I think promoting progressive ideas and policies (0.00 / 0)
on a national stage does a lot to build up the progressive movement. You don't say what you want him to do, except quit running for president. Do you think the mealy mouth healthcare, Iraq, and electoral reform statements from all the other presidential candidates (except, partially Dodd) are somehow building the progressive movement?

Yeah, I think politics has to start with ideas, not personalities. I'll happily vote for Obama, but can't say he's done much of anything so far to support what I'd call progressive ideas. He, like the rest of the primary candidates, has said little that would get an argument from Richard Nixon. Just what is it you want to build this movement on, if not real universal health care, fast withdrawal from Iraq, deep electoral reform, and making crimes in high places punishable by law?

If you just think Kucinich is just ineffective, fine. Why not stick to saying that? When a post starts out claiming to celebrate Kucinich's prospect of staying in Congress, and then sashays over to a call for attacking progressives in primaries with no visible connective tissue, perhaps you can forgive a slinger of horseshit like myself for wandering into psychological speculation.

[ Parent ]
Overton Window (4.00 / 2)
I think Kucinich's biggest contribution, in addition to his votes in the House, is that his TV appearances help move the Overton Window left. I don't think this is trivial.

He obviously shares a lot of values with most progressives. As much as his ego can seem to be counterproductive, I have a hard time imagining any replacement from his district being an overall improvement. Perhaps now that he is done running for President, some of you high-profile bloggers can have a sit-down with him and try to persuade him to coordinate with some smart progressive movement building in exchange for more support. Or maybe he's too much of a hard head. Has anybody tried?

miasmo.com

[ Parent ]
We All Know (4.00 / 1)
That what Chris Bowers really wants is for Dennis Kucinich to be free to go back to Hollywood and reprise his role as Gollum for The Hobbit.

But seriously, Bowers has a point.  Dennis Kucinich makes for a horrible spokesman for the progressive movement.  His personal motivations at this point seem no different from Ralph Nader's, placing his own ego above any sort of movement.

Also, if Tom Lantos hadn't died, he would have been a member of the House Progressive Caucus worth harassing with a primary challenge, as Jackie Speier had been planning on doing.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
"horrible spokesman" (0.00 / 0)
I question the logic of tossing aside progressive spokespersons until we have at least a handful of them to fill the void. I don't really see anybody else getting on TV. He can promote progressive ideas on TV because 1.) he ran for President and 2.) he didn't have a chance. Any candidates who might actually win always moderate their views to fall within acceptable elite discourse, including Howard Dean and Barack Obama. It was really depressing to watch Obama grovel before the Village Elders and promise to never question our support for right-wing Israeli policies.

So who are the alternative unapologetic progressives getting on TV? Rachel Maddow? Katrina Vandenheuvel? Who else? I can't think of anyone.

miasmo.com

[ Parent ]
two thoughts (0.00 / 0)
1) Dennis Kucinich is a national voice for the progressive movement only because there are no alternatives.  "He's better than nothing" is perhaps the only point in his favor.

2) If he were somehow removed from the political limelight, someone in Congress will probably seek to fill the niche of progressive spokesperson, if only because politicians tend to be opportunistic in seeking such things.  I would argue that whoever fills that void can't possibly be worse than Kucinich. (exception: Cynthia McKinney)



Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
unfortunately there isn't (0.00 / 0)
a progressive in Congress who wants to spend time on TV.

Dennis is not standing in anyone's way.

I wish OpenLeft would spend a little time asking members of the Progressive Caucus why they don't even try to get themselves on TV - instead of trashing Dennis for actually doing what none of them will do, and doing it pretty damn well.

[ Parent ]
The reason why people don't like Dennis.... (0.00 / 0)
...is that he looks goofy.

He's short, has big ears, a nasally voice... he's not the "image" that many progressives would like to have as their voice...

Well, toughski!!

He's our guy, and yes, he's a bit of a goofball, but our goofball, and he is a leader that we can certainly rely on and trust.

The people of Cleveland know that...  He should never have won a single election here, but, hey!  He's one of us... goofy looking and not well liked by the "popular kids"... but, that personifies this town... and lots of other towns, BTW!

I have a message for all the "beautiful people" Dennis haters out there... There are more Dennis Kucinich's than there are of you, so you better get used to it!  We aren't going to be kicked around anymore!

DENNIS!!! For Congress 2008!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
exactly right (0.00 / 0)
Dennis is extremely passionate and articulate and does very well on TV - much better than any other progressive in Congress.

Of course there are only a couple who even try - I see Russ Feingold or Bernie Sanders on TV once every blue moon.

[ Parent ]
Outstanding Idea! (0.00 / 0)
I would guess that there are a few of us here who view the Democratic Party as inherently unreformable and probably the most significant obstacle impeding the development of a serious left alternative.

So it's a pleasure for us to register complete agreement with Chris's outstanding idea to support primary challenges to members of the progressive caucus.

It's unfortunate that Chris wasn't successful in this instance.

Might I suggest that he throw his weight behind challenges to Pete Stark in Berkeley? Barbara Lee? Maurice Hinchey? Russ Feingold?

The next step, in a few of these instances will be the "reverse Lieberman" maneuver whereby the victim runs as a progressive third party candidate.

That would be the first step in bootstrapping a true labor/left party into existence.

From Chris's lips to God's ears!


Just because some poll says Kucinich is safe don't stop now (4.00 / 3)
Forget what the polls say. Kucinich will not have the nomination until every last vote is counted. Don't let your guard down. Don't do something stupid like go to the movies instead of voting just because some poll says Kucinich is safe. The way Cimperman is spending money he just as easily could have bought the poll as anything else. From this weekend on the attacks against Kucinich will be unceasing. Give money,  blog blog blog, and if you live in the Ohio 10th VOTE.

You can see Kucinich's new ad and contribute money here:
http://www.usalone.com/thank_y...

OH-10: Kucinich Looks Safe For Re-election | 18 comments
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