As Mike noted below, there is a lot of talk today about Michigan and Florida holding new elections. However, I'm not sure if I buy the new openness from Florida, considering the caveat they have attached to a new primary:
Crist told reporters at a news conference that he would be open to another primary, but not if Florida has to foot the bill, estimated by the Florida Democratic Party to be $25 million. He said he discussed the option with Sen. Bill Nelson, the state's senior Democrat. "He said the only way to consider the possibility of that is to have the Democratic National Committee pay for it," Crist said.
This is absurd. A new primary in Florida would generate more than $25M in revenue for the state, and Crist both and Nelson know it. It just wouldn't generate more than $25M in tax revenue. The state of Florida would lose money, but overall it would be a net gain for the population.
Clearly, Crist is just trying to appear as though he is open to a new primary, but does not really mean it. Forcing the DNC to shell out $25M would cripple it for the general election against John McCain, who Crist endorsed. This is not an attempt to have a new vote--it is an attempt to hand the election to John McCain. Of course Howard Dean would refuse this "offer," and of course Crist knows Dean would refuse that "offer." As such, Crist can appear open to a revote, because he knows it will never happen.
What does need to happen is for Michigan to hold a new primary or caucus. My delegate counter shows just what an abomination of democracy it would be for the current Michigan delegation to determine the nomination:
Open Left Democratic Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Other |
50% +1 |
| Pledged |
1,381.5 |
1,234.5 |
26 |
1,627 |
| Super |
202 |
241 |
353 |
NA |
| Total |
1,583.5 |
1,475.5 |
379 |
2,025 |
| Florida |
71 |
113 |
26 |
NA |
| Total |
1,654.5 |
1,588.5 |
405 |
2,130 |
| Michigan |
1 |
80 |
76 |
NA |
| Total |
1,655.5 |
1,668.5 |
481 |
2,208.5 |
For Clinton to narrowly eek out a victory by means of the current 80-1 Michigan delegation would be horrendous. Fortunately, it looks like a new Michigan caucus could go forward:
Michigan Democrats are discussing holding a "firehouse" contest in May or June that would be an alternative to a traditional primary or caucus and run by the state party, said a Democratic Party official who has been part of the discussions. "Firehouse" contests usually have fewer polling places and shorter voting hours than traditional state-run primary elections.
The party official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private, said there was general consensus that it could not be held at taxpayers' expense and would attempt to generate participation from about 1 million state Democrats.
I think seating Florida's delegation as is (105 Clinton, 67 Obama, 13 Edwards) and holding a new Michigan caucus (with 128 pledged delegates at stake) would be an acceptable compromise (more on my Florida position here). Clinton's advantages from the lack of campaigning in Florida would be cancelled out by Obama's advantage in caucuses. Hold the caucus on Saturday, June 7th, the same day as Puerto Rico, and just be done with the whole thing. This way, we can avoid the credentials committee, and probably have a nominee by June 8th, at the latest.
I know that two less-than-democratic contests don't make the overall nomination campaign an exercise in pure democracy, but consider the other options we face. There won't be a new vote in Florida, and all this new posturing for one is pretty much bullshit. Instead, from mid-June through late August, the nomination could be decided at the credentials committee, with none of the following outcomes against the rules:
There are a number of ways this could play out, and they are all "within the rules"
- Status Quo. No delegates from Florida or Michigan.
- The Credentials Committee seats one or both delegations as is. Totally within the rules. The Credentials Committee has the total power within the rules to seat or not seat any delegate as they choose, regardless of any previous DNC rules.
- The Credentials Committee seats the delegates, but makes each delegate worth half a vote, essentially restoring the originally proposed 50% penalty. Totally within the rules.
- The Credentials Committee seats the delegations, but makes sure they are split 50-50 between Obama and Clinton. Totally within the rules
- Either state submits a new delegate selection plan to the DNC. It is approved, and new delegates are selected. Totally within the rules. (And Delaware supposedly did this in a previous election year).
Seating Florida's delegation and holding an early June, cost-effective, party-run Michigan caucus would be a lot better than having the national party twist in the wind for three months without a nominee while the obscure DNC credentials committee becomes the sole arbiter of democracy. This is hardly a perfect solution, but it would give us a nominee by mid-June (which isn't too bad), and also force the Clinton and Obama campaigns to organize everywhere (which is great). Not everyone, or even most people, will agree with this proposal, but it is the best, and most realistic, compromise solution I can think of.
Update: Ben Smith suggests it is possible to hold a new Florida primary for only $5 million. If that is the case, there should be sufficient money to pull it off if several groups all chip in.
Update 2: TNR reports that Michigan is very likely to hold a new caucus:
A member of the DNC's Rules And Bylaws Committee--the committee that stripped Florida and Michigan of its delegates for moving their primaries before February 5th--told me that Michigan plans to get out of its uncounted delegate problem by announcing a new caucus in the next few days.
"They want to play. They know how to do caucuses," the DNC source said. "That was their plan all along, before they got cute with the primary."
So, it looks like if we can come up with $5 million for a Florida mail-in primary, the problem will be solved. Good. |
