Interesting titbit (4.00 / 2)

Actually wonderful Kosser POCKETNINES (hat tip) explains among other things there is an add-on delegate for the winner of the caucus (if I understand it correctly) so technically a 7-5 win actually mean a 3 delegate advantage for Obama.

Pocketnines also explains the numbers provided by CNN are misleading because they are not the number of state convention delegates. Obama's percentage is actually slightly higher than reported (although not enough for 8-4 at this time)

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by: benjaminomeara @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 12:46:22 PM CST

Why (4.00 / 1)

would the caucus in Michigan be a caucus "in name only?"

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by: Brett @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 12:49:55 PM CST

firehouse caucus / primary (0.00 / 0)

It would be called a caucus because it would be run by the state party, but the polls would be open for around 8 hours and it would be a secret ballot (I think).

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by: Chris Bowers @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 12:54:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

In the Recent Past, such as 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004 Michigan (0.00 / 0)

...had a Firehouse Caucus, operated by the state party, secret balloting, many less polling places than for a state operated election.  They have a lot of experience operating Firehouse Caucuses in MI. (BTW - I'm not sure what they did in 1996).

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by: howardpark @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 16:49:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Even with only 3 delegates (4.00 / 1)

The Texas caucus results, and the swing of 8 delegates in California, at this point, with those 3, isn't Obama ahead in delegates, of where he was before last Tuesday?  By only a delegate, but still.

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by: JC @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 13:47:57 PM CST

A victory is a victory... (4.00 / 1)

...and will allow Obama to change the narrative after a bad week.  It doesn't matter if it's one vote or one delegate.  Politics of hope vs. politics of fear.  AND he stayed above the mud.

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by: Jaded @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 13:56:09 PM CST

besides (0.00 / 0)

when all is said and done in Texas, it appears Obama will win the caucus piece and take the delegate lead by 3 as NPR reported this week.
Can someone tell me why it will take til month end to figure this out?

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by: Metrix @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:39:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It appears Omaba Will Come Up Short of 64.286% (0.00 / 0)

Obama ran strong in Alabany County, where Laramee, is located, winning 75%-25%.  Laramee County, where Cheyenne is located (confusing isn't it?), has yet to report.  Even assuming a similar victory in Cheyenne County as Laramee County, Obama will only get 62% of the vote.  

Saxby Chambliss, worse than disgraceful; he's reprehensible.  

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by: gunnar @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:01:10 PM CST

Obama's caucus "advantage" (4.00 / 2)

While I'll acknowledge that caucuses do favor Obama (see Texas), I think that point can be given too much weight if we don't also realize that most of the states that hold caucuses are also the more favorable states for Obama (Midwestern and Western states).

I expect Obama to do very well in the remaining western states holding primaries (Montana, SD, Oregon).

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by: moreaxe @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:12:50 PM CST

Can we get a diary outlining Clinton's (0.00 / 0)

paths to the nomination...how much she needs to win states by,  if Fl and Mi re-vote or not...etc.

Assuming Supers don't overturn the people.

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by: cardboard @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:25:46 PM CST

Delegates (0.00 / 0)

I would like to see this too. There has been a lot of talk about her needing wins in the 60-70% range in most of the remaining states to overtake Obama's pledged delegate lead. But this is complicated by Obama's delegate collecting pattern - he tends to keep the delegate count close, or even win more delegates, when losing the popular vote. Clinton has a much better chance of overtaking the popular vote than of taking the lead in pledged delegates (esp. with Florida back in the mix).

But I don't really buy the popular vote thing. Does anyone know what the facts are regarding caucus vote counts? My understanding is that an accurate popular vote count is not possible given the mechanics of many caucuses.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:39:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

check your percentages... clinton's seems too high (49) (0.00 / 0)

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by: seabrook @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:29:35 PM CST

Maps, maps, maps (4.00 / 1)

Now that there's a pause in the action:

Click to enlarge.

Close-ups of last weeks election can be found in this diary.

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by: dreaminonempty @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:34:21 PM CST

I love these (0.00 / 0)

Thank you!

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:43:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Math? (0.00 / 0)

Obama 59% to Clinton 49%?

That's 108%. Am I missing something?

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by: CaptCT @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:45:48 PM CST

Should it be... (0.00 / 0)

59% Obama to 40% Clinton?

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by: CaptCT @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 14:50:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The real numbers are (0.00 / 0)

59/40.  I voted in the Wyoming caucuses this morning.  These caucuses are pretty un-caucuslike. The wait in line was about 2 hours to get into the Civic Center auditorium in Laramie County.  Then another hour of speechifying by local party officials and state legislators.  Then the vote.  It was done on hand-marked paper ballots counted by hand. There was no attempt at persuasion or conversation other than neighborly chit chat.  The only difference between this and a primary was the wait at the door.  The crowd in Laramie County was estimated at about 2000-2500.  This would represent an increase in turnout over 2004 of around 700%.

Sentiment among working class Wyomingites in SE Wyoming is strongly anti-Bush, with a hardcore of ignorant Repigs who would like to see Bush made emperor and canonized, not necessarily in that order. Statewide, party registration is around 66/33% Repig.  

Education levels and quality here are high, on paper, but there is a deeply imbeded strain of ignorance, obliviousness, and nativism.  I miss California.

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by: Querent @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 17:50:36 PM CST

Thanks Wyoming (0.00 / 0)

Glad that they won. I'm still  mystified at him winning states where the only time they see Black people is
a) on tv
b) in a movie theater.

But, it cracks me up to no end.  

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by: rikyrah @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 20:15:17 PM CST