Adding On To Delegate Math

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 09:30

Democratic Nomination Campaign Delegate Projection

Delegate Type	Obama	Clinton	Other	Remaining	50%+1
Pledged	1,389.5	1,238.5	26	599	1,627
Super	206	243	0	270	NA
Projected Add-ons	36	27	0	13	NA
Total 1	1,631.5	1,508.5	26	882	2,024.5
Florida	71	116	13	10	NA
Total 2	1,702.5	1,624.5	39	892	2,129.5
Michigan	1	82	55	18	NA
Total 3	1,703.5	1,706.5	94	910	2,208

Notes on the table can be found in the extended entry. Before the detail of the numbers obscures all else, I wish to make a couple of observations on the table.

First, according to Total 1, Barack Obama has already essentially wrapped up the nomination. First, he requires only 40% of the remaining pledged delegates to reach 50%+1 in that category, which is virtually guaranteed. Second, According to Total 1, he would need only 395 more delegates to win, or 44.64% of the remaining delegates. He has at least a 95% chance of accomplishing that goal, given that even on March 4th he won 49.19% of the pledged delegates available that day. If that is the biggest defeat he can suffer, 44.64% should be a shoe-in.

According to Total 2, Obama has a decent lead, but the nomination is not out of Clinton's reach. Obama would need 47.94% of the remaining delegates in order to clinch the nomination. While the odds would be in favor of Obama pulling that off, it is unlikely that he would supercede his magic number of 429 by very much. There is a real chance that Clinton delegates plus Edwards delegates plus undecided superdelegates would be a majority heading into July and August.

According to Total 3, neither candidate has any realistic chance to have the nomination sealed by July. Both candidates would require 55% or more of the remaining delegates in order to reach the magic number, a virtually impossible task. In this scenario, the 55 unallocated delegates from Michigan, along with Edwards delegates and undecided superdelegates, would either decided the nomination behind closed doors / at the credentials committee in July and August, or on the floor of the convention in late August.

Total 3 is what we must all work against, and also why a revote in Michigan is absolutely imperative. In that scenario, an obscenely unbalanced Michigan delegates of Clinton 82, Obama 1 would force the nomination campaign at least into July, and also guarantee that it is settled behind closed doors in smoke-filled rooms instead of by the voters. It guarantees that large swaths of Obama and Clinton supporters will be extremely upset at the outcome of the nomination, no matter who ends up winning. In short, it leaves the Democratic Party pretty much screwed. A revote in Michigan is essential to ending the nomination in June and producing a winner widely accepted as legitimate. That is what is necessary to unify the party, win in November and maintain a positive image for the party. It has to be done.

I honestly don't care if there is a revote in Florida or not. Simply put, I don't think a revote will change the results all that much, although Obama probably gain a handful of delegates compared to current projections. Mainly, I just want a quick resolution to the Florida situation that both the Obama and Clinton campaigns accept, so that we can focus on other matters as all this process talk doesn't help the party much. By contrast, a revote in Michigan is absolutely essential in order to avoid a gigantic mess once the voting is over in June. Without a revote in Michigan, we are headed to smoke-filled rooms behind closed doors, then to the credentials committee, and then to the floor of the convention in late August. And whatever happens, people will leave the party in droves once it is all over. That simply cannot be allowed to happen. There absolutely must be a revote in Michigan. The progress on this front is hopeful, but there is not much time left and a deal needs to be completed soon.

Now, given that Hillary Clinton is talking about pledged not delegates not being fixed either (which is technically true, but most of them are heavily vetted activists for one candidate or another), we are probably going to the convention no matter what happens. However, there is a difference between going all the way to the convention without a presumptive nominee, and going all the way to the convention with a presumptive nominee. The latter is easily acceptable, every candidate's right, and something that happens almost every cycle anyway. However, for all of the reasons stated here, the former is a serious problem for the party, and needs to be avoided. We need a presumptive nominee by the end of June who is viewed as legitimate by virtually everyone who participated in the nomination campaign. There is a chance that won't happen, even without any smoke-filled arm-twisting rooms or credentials committee disputes, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.

• Pledged delegate totals are more own, and more detail on my projections can be found here. In states where all pledged delegates have not yet been chosen, I have projected the final pledged delegate count. In cases where my projections disagree with other sources, I stand by my numbers until proven otherwise.
  
• Superdelegates totals are taken from Democratic Convention Watch, minus the two add-on delegates already allocated to Clinton and the one add-on delegate already allocated to Obama.
  
• Projected add-on delegates are derived from this chart. For now, all add-on delegates are assumed to be allocated to the popular winner of the state in question, which means Nevada and Texas are projected for Clinton. I will work on finding more information on these delegates and update projections according to that new information.
  
• Numbers for Florida and Michigan are based on the disputed primaries held in those states back in January. Totals for those states include pledged delegates, superdelegates, and projected add-on delegates.