First, the Clinton campaign is publicly making a distinction between caucus delegates and other types of delegates:
Well, that was the pre-March 4 Clinton spin. The new Clinton spin? Create THREE categories of delegates: pledged, caucus and supers. Here's Hillary Clinton in an interview with Newsweek.
Asked how she can win the nomination despite the math, Clinton: "It doesn't look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose.
Some Obama supporters have taken this statement as an indication that the Clinton campaign was going after pledged Obama delegates, rather than simply stating the technical truth that elected delegates are not legally obligated to vote for their candidate at the convention. I think, rather, that Senator Clinton was simply revealing too much about her campaign strategy. Many caucus states, including the delegate-rich contests of Colorado (55), Iowa (45) and Washington (78), have not yet allocated all, or in some cases any, of their pledged delegates. Rather, these are "multi-tiered" contests where the caucuses continues to a second and sometimes third level before the delegates are determined. Three weeks ago, the Clinton campaign confirmed to me that they are still organizing in multi-tiered states:
Because of this, I put a question into both the Obama and Clinton campaigns to see if they had organizers still working on the process in states with multi-tiered delegate process. The Clinton campaign confirmed to me that yes, they do in fact still have organizers in states with multi-tiered delegate selection processes, even if those states have already held primaries or caucuses. The Obama campaign declined to comment, but indicated that information on the subject would be available to the public later this week.
Now, some Obama supporters are screaming bloody murder about this, as the comments to this well-recommended diary at Daily Kos shows. However, why would any well-organized campaign stop organizing in a caucus state if the caucus itself is not over? Strikes me as a really bad idea to declare yourself the winner at halftime and then head home, especially while the other side is still playing:
I was at my Adams County assembly last weekend. Obama won the county on caucus night 55-45, but at the assembly Clinton tied him. The same, I hear, is happening in other counties. Clinton actually still has a paid operation here working these county assemblies. At these county assemblies, delegates are chosen for the state convention, where, finally, the delegation to the national convention is chosen. So Adams county will be sending the same number of votes for Clinton as for Obama to the state convention. If, as anecdotally appears to be the case, Clinton does five points better at county than on caucus night, you could see her gaining several delegates that are currently being given to Obama. Potentially as many as 5-6. Most caucus states have similar systems, btw.
Now, the above diary is wrong on the facts, since Obama only actually won the county 51-46 on Super Tuesday, making a draw from the Clinton campaign on the second round not impossible at all if some Obama supporters didn't show up (or if the 3% of uncommitted delegates switched to a candidate). This is, after all, a caucus, and caucusing continues until the delegates are selected. And no, this is not thwarting the will of the popular caucus electorate, or at least not thwarting it any more than a caucus already thwarts the popular will. There is no will of the electorate in many caucus states--aka, there is no popular vote--only delegates to the next level of the caucus.
Now, I don't think that Obama supporters have too much to worry about here, unless they themselves are caucus delegates who didn't bother to show up to the next level of the caucus. So far, the Clinton campaign has not done a very good job of organizing in caucuses, since by my count Obama leads in projected caucus delegates 326-190. Also, caucus delegates tend to be dedicated activists for one candidate or another, and the Clinton campaign has probably hurt its own chances to win more delegates from these states by openly dissing red-state caucus delegates in the past. So, it seems unlikely that Clinton can improve upon the pledged delegate projection I listed above. However, they are at least giving it a shot, breaking absolutely zero rules and thwarting no popular will along the way.
Among the many different locations that the Clinton campaign can look for pledged delegates right now, second or third level caucus states is one of the most above board, transparent, and fair. It is certainly better than trying to convince superdelegates to ignore the popular will. It is much, much better than trying to seat the abomination that is the current Michigan delegation. Caucuses in some states are simply not over yet, and the Clinton campaign is playing straight through to the end of the game. That is smart, because as the 1984 campaign taught us about caucuses, don't declare yourself the winner at halftime and then go home. Some delegates in caucus states might change hands between now and June. |
