Mississippi And IN-07 Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 18:56

( - promoted by Matt Stoller)

Two elections of national note tonight: the Mississippi Democratic presidential primary, and the special election for IN-07. The former is expected to be an easy win for Obama, while the later is expected to be a fairly easy win for Democrat Andre Carson, son grandson of the late Julia Carson who previously held the seat.

IN-07 results can be found at Blue Indiana and the Indianapolis Star. Polls close, I believe, at 7 p.m., eastern.

For Mississippi, results can be found at the websites for most national news outlets. Polls close at 8 p.m., eastern. Also, even though the polls have not closed yet, we can already project the delegate count reasonably well (see here and here for more):

  • At-large and PLEO delegates: Of the 11 delegates determined on the statewide vote, the split will be either 7-4 or 6-5, with I believe 59.1% being the over / under line for Obama. Or at least I think that is how it works, and the at-large and PLEO are not determined separately. If they are determined separately, than 6-5 Obama is a virtual lock. Updated: They are counted separately. This will be 6-5 Obama, unless he shockingly reaches 62.5% of the viable candidate vote.
  • MS-01: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama, but probably 3-2 Clinton. Update: Looks like Clinton narrowly (3%) hangs on for 3-2.
  • MS-02: Probably 5-2 Obama. Update: 5-2 Obama it is.
  • MS-03: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama. Update: 3-2 Obama. I should have favored Obama here all along. This was never close.
  • MS-04: Probably 3-2 Clinton. Update: In a surprise, Obama is hanging on for a 3-2 lead here right now. Can he hold it? The lead might be due to his precincts reporting early. This is the difference between 19-14 and 18-15. Right now, I'll go with 19-14.

Overall, that means we start with a delegate count of 17-13 in favor of Obama. Three "loose" delegates could go either way, and two of those three lean toward Clinton. While that does not seem like much to watch for, there are two interesting sub-plots. First, whoever wins two of the three "loose" delegates wins the most pledged delegates for March. Second, if Obama wins the state by more than 20,000 votes, he takes the overall popular vote lead in even the most favorable count for Clinton. A more complete count shows that Obama is already ahead.

There, don't you feel better now that I gave you the results before the polls closed? Oh yeah, and "momentum" does not matter at all here, because there are six weeks until the next primary.

This is an open thread for tonight's election results, which I will not be updating closely.

Update: OK, Carson is ahead 52%-45% with 73% reporting, so it looks like a win but not a very comfortable one. Obama is ahead 59%-39% with 78% reporting, which is right at the dividing line for a number of delegates. The delegate count currently stands at 17-14, with two delegates left to report. Obama needs both to win March, but his 60,000+ popular vote victory tonight guarantees that he is ahead in even the most pro-Clinton popular vote count.

Update 2 2.5: Looks like the Mississippi delegate split will be 18-14, pending the results of MS-04. Without the remaining delegate from MS-04 included, the March pledged delegate total stands at 207-207. Also, Carson's lead is expanding, and now sits at 53%-44% with 77% reporting. That is good enough for me to call it, even though I can't find any news outlets who have done so.  

Chris Bowers :: Mississippi And IN-07 Results Thread

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PV (0.00 / 0)
Does anyone know by the way, when Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine will release their popular vote total?

There is no popular vote total in Iowa (0.00 / 0)
The totals on the first and second round at an individual caucus are neither recorded nor reported.

The only thing reported is the breakdown of the delegates to the county convention.

[ Parent ]
MS-03 (0.00 / 0)
Should probably lean Obama

What the heck happened? (0.00 / 0)
I don't understand why African-American turnout is so low, relative to their share of the Democratic party in Mississippi. It looks like they're around 60% of the vote. In theory they should be something like 65-75% of the vote, and Obama should be winning 70-30. Clearly the Obama's GOTV campaign among African-Americans makes a big difference; compare MS and AL to GA, SC, and VA where they competed more strongly.

pleo and at-large delegates are awarded separately. It's not a 6-5 lock; Obama might win the pleo's 3-1, but I agree that's unlikely.

MS-03 is not that loose; it favors Obama substantially, though Clinton should win it. MS-04 probably favors Clinton. MS-1 is something of a toss-up. I still think MS-2 might go 6-1 for Obama. I think the likely case is 3-2, 5-2, 3-2, 2-3, 5-2, 2-2, for a total of 20-13. But it could go somewhat higher. And exits in VA and WI were both revised upwards as the night went on.

erm (0.00 / 0)
MS-03 favors Obama, though clinton could win it.

[ Parent ]
60% seems to be typical (0.00 / 0)
if you look at it historically.

[ Parent ]
Also consider the mischievous Republican crossovers (0.00 / 0)
MSNBC exit poll said an eighth of the votes in the Dem primary last night were Republicans and they went 3 to 1 for Hillary.  I bet almost all of these were white voters.  This would help explain the relatively low percentage of African American voters.

[ Parent ]
a good link (0.00 / 0)
This diarykos diary is worth checking out Mississippi Primary: Tracking the Delegate Vote, complete with maps and pictures.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

Meritocracy versus Dynasties (4.00 / 2)
Democrat Andre Carson, son of the late Julia Carson who previously held the seat

While I certainly hope the Democrat wins, I hate this.  More and more I see both in politics and other professions people just doing what their parents did.  What happened to meritocracy?  When did we fall back into a feudal society?

Long before I decided I actually liked Obama I decided I didn't want Clinton to win primarily because of the dynastic implications.  I don't want to live in a country ruled by dynasties.  

Nor do I want to live in a country where people just do what their parents did.  I thought we were better than that.

Grandson, actually (0.00 / 0)
But questions were raised about the probity of his selection and his qualifications for office (parliamentary blood aside) are about six months on the city council. And there's nothing to suggest that he's much of a progressive.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
Its Congress (0.00 / 0)
It's a rank and file congress position.  Its a job that calls for smoozing skills.  Seriously, Sonny Bono did this job... what real qualifications do you need.  Unless you are leadership, it doesn't matter.

[ Parent ]
To be a representative, sure (0.00 / 0)
But a backbencher placed in his seat by his grandmother's inner circle with little in the way of experience, energy or popular support is unlikely to be a highly effective member of congress. I could be wrong, he could be willing to lead and he might be effective at constituent service, but the prognosis isn't great. AN Other backbencher shouldn't be good enough. There are too many of those already.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
Elrod's an interesting candidate (0.00 / 0)
He seems less doctrinaire than most Republican candidates and much more socially liberal. I wonder if he might be the start of a new breed of Republican congressional candidates. Certainly, those of the Paultards who remain in the party could well end up running similar campaigns in the future, especially if they tone done the Ayn Rand worship a little.

Obviously, we wouldn't want Carson to lose, but I wouldn't mind a narrow victory. Elrod would probably be harder than Jim Ogonowski to spin as proof that the Republicans are going to do well this November, meaning we'd lose less of the positive news bump from the Foster win, and it'd weaken Carson for the May primary, which I am very definitely in favour of.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

Who Expects Mississippi to Be an Easy Win?? (0.00 / 0)

Mississippi (0.00 / 0)
  CNN calls it for Obama.  The electorate was heavily polarized along racial lines.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

Err... (0.00 / 0)
  And CNN retracts the projection to "Obama leads in exit polling."  OK...

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
CNN Just Reported (4.00 / 3)
the Florida Dems Cong. Delegation has not only rejected a vote by mail, but any form of redo

Clearly they're in the pocket of Obama... (0.00 / 0)
What other explanation could there be?  He must have used that $50 million to pay off every one of them.

And, /snark for those that missed it.

[ Parent ]
Boy (0.00 / 0)
They are really stupid then.  I hope they get left out for that stupidity.

[ Parent ]
They're in the tank for Hillary n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Oh Well (4.00 / 1)
Another disappointing 10-15 point win by Obama. MS must be another one of those latte-sipping boutique states.

10-15 points would be a slight disappointment... (4.00 / 1)
Would probably mean a max of +3 net delegates.

[ Parent ]
Obama sent an e-mail saying he's erased Clinton's lead (0.00 / 0)
Obviously not the most unbiased source, but from Obama's e-mail:

"Between those two states, we picked up enough delegates to erase the gains by Senator Clinton last Tuesday and add to our substantial lead in earned delegates. And in doing so we showed the strength and breadth of this movement."

Battle in MS-04 (0.00 / 0)
  Your calculations assume that Obama loses MS-04, but the tally looks very close right now.  There are still 2 Clinton counties left to report and Obama has a slim lead.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

Actually (4.00 / 1)
I'm assuming Obama wins MS-04. I am also assuming a 6-5 split in the delegate count, since I have discovered that the at-large and PLEO delegates are counted separately. If Obama doesn't win MS-04, the state goes 18-15 for Obama.  

[ Parent ]
Winning March (0.00 / 0)
Which candidate won January and February?

John McCain

Obama won both (4.00 / 1)
He won January 63-48, and decisively won February, by about 100 pledged delegates.

[ Parent ]
After 3 months (0.00 / 0)
So the first month Clinton wins will probably be April. That's mathematically sort of weird.

Not "really worth thinking about" weird, mind you. Just, sort of weird.

[ Parent ]
Obama takes CD-4 (0.00 / 0)
With only 7% of Jackson outstanding, he has a slim lead (50.44%-49.56%, or a 734-vote lead). The only reason this might be inaccurate is it includes some of Jasper, which went large for Obama.

Looking like 19-14 (0.00 / 0)
I'm using USA Today's results at:

98%PLEOs = 2-2
98%AtLar = 4-3
99%MS-01 = 2-3
95%MS-02 = 5-2
98%MS-03 = 3-2
96%MS-04 = 3-2

MS-04 is still pretty close, but in the last 20 minutes Obama's lead has grown from 304 to 1204 votes.  Interestingly, I just observed this:
12:07 = 99% 42,636-41,768 = 868 lead
12:12 = 96% 41,900-40,696 = 1204 lead

as of 12:22, MS-02 is 95% 88,276-26,811 for 76.7% needing 78.571% to get the 6-1 split.  Not likely, but might not be impossible.

Wow, Obama has a good delegate counter (0.00 / 0)
I don't like spin so I tend to distrust Obama's delegate count, despite being a strong supporter, but they're really amazing. Once again, I've now noticed, they were right (about OH and TX) and everyone else was wrong. This just keeps happening over and over again. For those who don't know what I'm talking about, Obama's count gave them 1 of Clinton's delegates in both Ohio and Texas on March 5th while the best counts out there (including Chris) did not... they were right again and got 2 delegates previously thought to be Clinton's.

In Mississippi, CD 4 has a good enough margin now and will be Obama's, so it's 208-207 for Obama in March.

Let's hope he keeps them... (0.00 / 0)
...there have been reports of delegate poaching from the Hillary Clinton team in CO.  Who knows where else they will try.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Will wait to see some actual confirmed reports... (0.00 / 0)
I know there was an "eyewitness" account, but I'm going to wait until we hear something more definitive about it.  I'm not going to panic about this just yet.

[ Parent ]
Obama has enough former Clinton allies... (0.00 / 0)
...to know what they're capable of. They're outperformed Clinton's campaign so far, I really doubt they'd act like rookies on this issue.

[ Parent ]

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