Notes: The schedule for add-on delegates can be found here. For the add-ons, I am projecting a split in Missouri, a Clinton win in New Hampshire, and Obama wins in Nevada and Texas. The Michigan and Florida delegations include pledged, add-on, and superdelegates.
Interestingly, the various the popular vote percentages correspond pretty well to each of these delegate totals. Also, due to the addition of projected add-on delegates, Obama now leads even with the abomination that is Michigan's delegation included. There is going to be a brokered convention unless there is a revote in that state, and I am less confident today about the possibility of new revotes in Michigan and Florida than I was yesterday. The Obama campaign is showing surprising intransigence on the subject, especially considering that even the announcement of a revote in Michigan would pretty much end the campaign right then and there.
More details on the state-by-state pledged delegate totals in the extended entry. My numbers disagree very slightly with some other sources, but I stand by mine until proven otherwise.
The Michigan Democratic Party has claimed it will send a pledged delegate count of 73 Clinton, 55 uncommitted to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Michigan has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July. For more on the DNC credentials committee, click here.
The Florida Democratic Party has claimed that it will send a pledged delegate count of 105 Clinton, 67 Obama, and 13 Edwards to the national convention. The DNC has ruled that Florida has no pledged delegates. This conflict will be worked out by the DNC credentials committee, sometime in June or July.
There are 795 unlpledged, or "super" delegates, to the DNC convention, plus another 54 from Michigan and Florida. Historically, they have lined up behind the pledged delegate leader. In the event that there is no clear pledged delegate leader in June, they will come into play. In that "tiebreaker" event, Clinton currently holds a large, but declining, advantage.
For more on a possible brokered convention, click here.