Floridians on the delegate controversy

by: fladem

Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:48

44 percent of voters favor counting the Jan. 29 results, with twice as many Clinton supporters as Obama supporters in that camp. If the national party reversed its decision to exclude Florida, Clinton would net 38 delegates in Florida, allowing her to narrow but not close the 100-plus delegate gap with Obama.

Only 8 percent favor holding another vote-by-mail ballot, suggesting the state party made the right call to scrap that idea. The rest of the respondents were split between holding a traditional election, dividing the delegates evenly between Clinton and Obama, and battling it out at the August convention in Denver.

On the central question of whether this was a "real election", the poll provides ammunition to the Clinton campaign.  56% of Floridians thought there were able to make an informed decision in advance of the primary, and only 2% didn't vote because of delegate dispute.

What if no Florida Democrats are seated?   According to the poll:

66% said it would have no impact

14% said it would make them much less likely to support a Democrat

10% said it would make them somewhat less likely to support a Democrat

9% refused

You can read these numbers a bunch of different ways, but my overall impression is surprise at how little damage refusing to seat the delegation would seem to create.  Moreover, the wording of the poll does not tell us what would happen if a 50/50 delegation were seated.  Would the 14% who said they would be much less likely to support a Democrat be satisfied?  

But the most important question is this: who do Democrats blame for the crisis?  At this point most the Republicans (28%), the DNC (25%) and the Florida Democratic Party (20%).   The most crucial finding in this poll is that only 5% blame the candidates , which suggests that the ultimate impact of this debacle on our chances in November may prove far more minor that I have previously feared.  

In the end, I think the way out of this mess is obvious: seat half of the delegates elected on January 29th.  Most Florida voters view their election as legitimate, and imposing the 50% penalty would  be the same penalty imposed by the Republicans.  Importantly, it would also allow Democrats in this state to attack the Republicans for creating this mess, a danger I think Gov. Crist is eager to avoid.

I would hope this last finding creates a sense of urgency among the Clinton and Obama campaigns to find a solution to this issue.  There is at this moment an opportunity to minimize the impact of this mess in Florida and keep alive at least a hope of carrying this state.  For the Obama campaign in particular this is a delicate situation as it is imperative that it avoid the perception that it opposes seating the Florida delegation.