I have updated the nomination at a glance tables to accurately reflect the primary cash on hand for each candidate minus total debt. In lieu of new commentary on the numbers, I thought people might find this statistic notable (source, PDF):
Total 2008 presidential donors under $200: 565,000 (est) for 18% of total money raised
Total 2008 presidential donors at or over $2,300: 47,713, for 45% of total money raised.
Barely more than one half of one percent of the 2004 electorate has given money to presidential campaigns so far in the 2008 cycle. Even among those who have given money, large donors have given 2.5 times as much money as small donors, despite there being 12 times as many small donors. An excrutiatingly small percentage of America provides the resources with which campaigns use to speak to the rest of America. Amidst the buzz about the great new influx of small donors in politics, that does not strike me as a particularly healthy development for our democracy.
Last update: July 29, 3:00 pm eastern State polls taken from June 13th through July 25h
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
December
5
24.0%
17.0%
27.4%
9.2%
New Hampshire
December
5
35.6%
23.2%
10.8%
9.0%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
16.5%
14.0%
6.5%
South Carolina
Jan 22
4
36.0%
27.0%
15.5%
2.3%
Florida
Jan 29
7
39.3%
17.8%
11.8%
3.2%
National
Feb 05
NA
36.2%
23.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Obama actually has more cash on hand than Bush did at the same point in 2003!
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$3M (?)
$0.1M
Iowa
December
4
15.0%
24.5%
15.5%
9.8%
New Hampshire
December
5
19.4%
27.4%
12.8%
15.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
19.0%
21.5%
20.5%
12.0%
South Carolina
Jan 22
3
23.7%
7.7%
20.3%
16.7%
Florida
Jan 29
6
27.2%
8.7%
21.5%
10.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
24.8%
9.9%
20.1%
15.3%
McCain’s cash on hand figure only barely surpasses his total debts owed. Also, while the Romney campaign owes nearly $9M in debts, most of that is in the form of candidate self-financing, I believe.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
“Net Available Cash” equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets. Current numbers are not precise, as all data is not yet available.
For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included.
For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable. One Florida poll included Gore.
February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.
Calendar notes
I am currently projecting both Iowa and New Hampshire to take place in December of 2007. Currently, the two states are working together, behind the scenes, in order to secure that they are first. Given that Iowa wants to take place eight days before New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire wants to take place seven days before any other non-Iowa state, and given that Nevada is scheduled to take place on January 19, 2008, that means the latest Iowa could be held is Friday, January 4th, 2008. Since Iowa is obviously not going to hold their caucuses either that close to New Year's, much less on a Friday, at this point December seems practically a foregone conclusion. Basically, we are now five months from the Iowa caucus, so anyone who was still doing so can stop saying it is way too early to talk about this stuff.
Interestingly, Michigan is currently looking at five possible dates: February 9th, January 12th, January 5th, December 15th, and December 8th. They could very well move up after Iowa and New Hampshire announce the December move. I bet they move up to January 12th, but given the wide range of possibilities (not to mention the lack of recent Michigan polls), it is best to wait for more info before including Michigan in this table. Still, no matter if, where and when Michigan moves, Iowa and New Hampshire will be first. They are willing to hold events in November, or even October, if that is what it takes to stay first.
South Carolina, currently scheduled for January 29th on the Democratic side and February 2nd on the Republican side, has also threatened to move ahead of Florida, which is scheduled for January 29th. It would be a real shock if South Carolina did not move up.
