I have decided to discontinue my personal pledged delegate count, and just go with the pledged delegate count from the Green Papers from now on, since I agree with their count 100%. For superdelegates, I will still be using Democratic Convention Watch, which is the best source out there. Although it was not a factor in choosing these two sources, it is kind of cool that two DIY sources are the best places to go for accurate delegate counts on the 2008 nomination campaign. Who needs big media, anyway? Here are the latest totals:
The Green Papers pledged delegates, plus my superdelegate detailed count, give overall totals of Obama 1,682--1,524 Clinton. With a magic number of 2,022.5 (the two vacancies reduce the magic number by 1), Obama needs only 41.5%, or 340.5, of the remaining 821 uncommitted delegates to win the nomination.
The delegate projection for the remaining primary and caucus states is as follows, based on current polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.6%
48.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
44.3%
51.3%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
266
300
Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948--1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan. In order to have any chance, Clinton is going to need to significantly outperform current polls in remaining states, come up with a convincing new argument for superdelegates, and somehow finagle a good deal for Michigan and Florida. And even if she pulls all of that off, each aspect of which is unlikely, Obama will still be favored because he will have more than zero delegates in Michigan. In other words, it would be a shocker if Obama wasn't the nominee, and if the nomination campaign wasn't functionally over by the end of June.
Obama nets a delegate in American Samoa. The often reported Clinton 2-1 Obama delegate count for American Samoa is inaccurate, and is actually 1.5-1.5. Green papers first noticed this inaccuracy. The problem was that American Samoa is actually sending six delegates to the convention with half a vote each, rather than three delegates with a full vote. As such, Clinton needed 58.33% of the vote in American Samoa to reach 2-1. Instead, she came in at 57.39%, leaving her exactly three votes shy of a 2-1 margin.
Clinton nets two delegates in Louisiana: Also as reported by Green papers, it turns out that the official delegate breakdown in Louisiana is Obama 33-23 Clinton, not Obama 34-22 Clinton. There has been conflicting reports on these numbers for some time, but the final totals now appear official, and Clinton picked up a delegate in one of the congressional districts at the March 1st congressional district caucuses.
The projected add-ons are based on the list of states that Obama and Clinton have won to date. Add-ons are projected as winner take all, except in Missouri, where a split is projected. Clinton is projected to win the New Hampshire add-on, while Obama is projected to win the Texas and Nevada add-ons.
Three vacancies are currently projected for Obama: one of the at-DNC members (an SEIU member), the Illinois DNC member, and Donna Edwards. Jackie Speier is projected as the vacant super for Clinton. The vacant Arizona DNC spot, and the second vacant at-large DNC spot, are not projected at this time.
The Pelosi Club delegates are all projected for Obama, since he is a lock to win the pledged delegate total.
The non-public Obama endorses are based on my personal, behind the scenes whip count.
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