There are three new post "bittergate" Pennsylvania polls this morning, from Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac. the three-poll average comes out to 51.3%--41.7%. The three previous, pre "bittergate" polls from these same polling outfits produced an identical average of 51.3%--41.7%.
Obama's remarks do not appear to have any impact on the campaign so far, except possibly to slow his upward momentum. However, even that possibility is hypothetical, since public opinion is not tied to the laws of physics. There is no gravitational force that indicates public opinion will continue to move in a given direction once it has started to move in that direction. It is possible Obama would have cut into Clinton's advantage without "bittergate," but it is also possible that it has made no impact on the campaign whatsoever. As I said, that is speculative.
Now, even though what I am about to write is also speculative, I don't think that Obama has failed to take a hit over his comments because Pennsylvania Democrats agreed with those comments. Instead, I think that this is the sort of controversy that the national media is incapable of effectively using to damage a candidate. Josh Marshall explains why:
n this case, I didn't think what he said was offensive. Of course, I don't live in a small town or in rural America. But then again, neither do any of the other people I've heard sound off on this topic. So I'm in good company. (This has been one of the more comedic aspects of this 72 hours -- watching a cavalcade of extremely wealthy pundits, editorialists and political operatives from New York and Washington tell me how rural Americans won't stand for this.)
It is really possible for famous, rich, urban, NYC and DC television types to effectively portray someone else as out of touch with Democrats in small-towns in Pennsylvania? I'm doubtful. It might be possible that some religious residents of small towns in Pennsylvania found Obama's remarks elitist, but it is also possible that many residents of small town America found it offensive that a bunch rich media elites in NYC and DC are acting as though they know what small town Pennsylvania is like. Here is one pundit's characterization of the voters who will find this story offensive:
[Reuters Washington correspondent Jon Decker]: They do. And let's not forget Barack Obama bowling. You know, this cuts to "is this person real? Do they connect with me as a voter?" You know, for someone who's in a bowling league in northeast central Pennsylvania, in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, they can't identify with someone getting a 37 over seven frames.
Yeah, you know you find this offensive, low-information, drunken, slovenly bowling types from the Scranton- Wilkes-Barre area. It is actually quite reminiscent of DLC-electability speak that openly talks of adopting certain policy positions in order to win more votes. Not only does such talk make the politicians who use it appear to only support given policy positions in order to win elections, but it also makes them look incredibly elitist in that they believe they can openly talk of fooling the electorate.
Yeah, you will vote for me if I shoot a gun. Yeah, you know you like that.
Yeah, you will vote for me if I adopt a third way approach on tax policy. Yeah, you know you like that stuff.
Yeah, you will vote for me even when I say, in public, that I am only doing these things to be elected. You are too dense to possibly notice that detail. Yeah, you know you are.
Yeah, you rural Pennsylvania Democrats will find something offensive if a wealthy pundit in New York tells you that you will find it offensive, because you know that the image that pundit is portraying of you is accurate. Yeah, you know that you are an easily stereotyped caricature.
Yeah, you will vote for me when I do these things, because you are such a bumpkin that you don't know I'm only doing them in order to be elected. Yeah, you know that you have no ability to be skeptical of photo-ops, stump speeches and the news media.
The abundant elitism of wealthy media types thinking they can speak for you, caricature you, and think you won't even notice they are trying to speak for you and caricature you is completely lost on you, because you are such a simpleton. Yeah, you know you like it.
Even if what Obama said was offensive to some, this just isn't the sort of story that the national media can use to effectively damage a candidate. Ultra-elitists just are not going to be able to convince people that someone else is actually even more elitist. And the polls today demonstrate this. |