I have to agree with Matt when he characterizes the primary campaign as "pretty irritating." It is a once in a lifetime fight in terms of its length and the need to count delegates. However, there are no great ideological issues at stake, the outcome is more than 95% certain, and now it is basically a long electability argument punctured every other week But the real reason I find it irritating is that the general election is so highly winnable, that I just want to get on with it and finish McCain off already.
How can I be so confident when current general election polling shows Obama and McCain in a dead heat? Simply put, it is because McCain's support is extremely soft, and once we can sink out teeth into him in a general election, he has no where to go but down. Consider the following favorable / unfavorable polling on McCain and Obama from polling report:
CBS News/New York Times Poll. March 28-April 2, 2008. N=1,196 registered voters nationwide.
Obama: Favorable 43%--24% Unfavorable
McCain: Favorable 35%--29% Unfavorable
Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. March 28-31, 2008. N=799 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
Obama: Favorable 56%--37% Unfavorable
McCain: Favorable 58%--32% Unfavorable
The key here is to note the difference in the number of undecided between the CBS poll and the Diageo poll. While the CBS poll included an option for "undecided" in its question, the Diageo poll did not. This means that while McCain was slightly ahead of Obama when everyone was forced to register an opinion in the Diageo poll, he was well behind Obama in favorable rating when people had the option of saying they were undecided. In other words, most of McCain's positive favorable ration actually comes from people who do not have not formed a real opinion about McCain, and simply lean toward a favorable opinion when forced to choose. This view is supported by other recent favorable polls that dig deeper into the question:
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). March 24-25, 2008. N=700 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.7
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so.
Obama---McCain
Very Positive: 24%--14%
Somewhat Positive: 25%--31%
Neutral: 18%--26%
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. March 19-22, 2008. N=1,503 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
". . . Would you say your overall opinion of John McCain is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?"
Obama---McCain
Very Positive: 21%--8%
Somewhat Positive: 35%--37%
In these two polls, McCain trails Obama by a small, but significant margin. However, McCain is thoroughly walloped in the "very positive" category. McCain's support comes overwhelmingly from the soft, "somewhat positive" category, that lines up with the above finding of many of the people who view him favorably actually being undecided.
McCain is staying afloat through supporters who are actually undecided and / or soft supporters who only hold a "somewhat" favorable opinion of him. He remains vague and undetermined to the electorate, largely because the focus of coverage remains on the Democratic primary. Once the general election starts, which means the media will actually start scrutinizing McCain and all progressive money is directed toward attacking him, it is extremely unlikely that he will hold all of those soft supporters. Invariably, a candidate's favorable rating drops during a presidential general election, and there is no reason to think it will be any different this time around.
Considering that right now McCain is only managing to draw even with Obama through the aid of a wave of soft and / or actually undecided voters, he really seems like a relatively easy target in the general election. As such, with a large trifecta in D.C. now clearly within our reach, yes, the primary campaign has indeed become pretty irritating. McCain is running on borrowed time, and that loan is coming entirely from the extended Democratic primary. |
