After a long pause, delegate counts will start to increase again for both candidates. On Saturday, Obama will win 36 of the 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan:
Thousands of Democrats will gather across the state Saturday to choose the 83 people and 15 alternates they want to represent them at the national convention in Denver in August.(...)
So Michigan is going ahead with its congressional district conventions at 10 a.m. Saturday, where 83 delegates will be selected based on the outcome of the primary, which Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York won with 55% of the vote. She will receive 47 of the delegates and 13 alternates while the people who voted "uncommitted" will get 36 of the delegates and two alternates. Another 45 delegates will be selected at the May 17 meeting of the Democratic Party's state central committee.(...)
Some Obama supporters have said they're worried Clinton supporters will try to poach some uncommitted delegates.
"But it's highly unlikely that's going to happen," Brewer said. "There's going to be some pretty intense questioning of these candidates."
So, in all likelihood, Obama will win 36 of the uncommitted delegates from Michigan on Saturday, and then win the remaining 19 at the Michigan state convention on May 17th. Michigan will then have a pledged delegate breakdown of Clinton 73-55 Obama. Everyone knows that Michigan will have a delegation seated at the convention, and the 73-55 looks like the only option right now. In the same vein, Florida's delegation will almost certainly be Clinton 105, Obama 67, and Edwards 13. For all the wrangling and arguments over Michigan and Florida, the deal will just end up being what I proposed from the beginning: seat Florida as is, and give Obama Michigan's 55 uncommitted delegates.
While this solution might not be perfectly democratic, neither is the nomination campaign. The important thing is that is reasonably fair, and that it will end the increasingly irritating argument over these two states. Obama probably would have pulled even with Clinton in a Michigan revote, but nine delegates strikes me as a reasonable penalty for pulling his name from the ballot. This is especially the case given that Edwards would have won some of those uncommitted delegates if he was still in the campaign.
With the outcome of Michigan and Florida coming into focus, it is time to start counting delegates with Michigan and Florida included. Here is my first stab:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,416 |
1,253 |
18 |
566 |
1,627 |
| MI + FL |
122 |
178 |
13 |
0 |
NA |
| Super |
233 |
267 |
0 |
279 |
-- |
| Add-on |
8 |
3 |
0 |
70 |
NA |
| Total |
1,771 |
1,698 |
31 |
915 |
2,208 |
From this point, Obama needs 437 delegates to win the nomination, or 47.8% of the remaining delegates, while Clinton needs 510 delegates, or 55.7%. Given that an Obama lead of 73 delegates sounds significantly less imposing than the previous leads we have seen, does Clinton have a chance to catch up? According to current polling, here are projections for the remaining pledged delegates:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
| State |
Date |
O % |
C % |
P. Del |
Obama Del |
Clinton Del |
| Pennsylvania |
Apr 22 |
42.0% |
47.4% |
158 |
75 |
83 |
| Guam |
May 03 |
-- |
-- |
4 |
2 |
2 |
| Indiana |
May 06 |
45.0% |
40.0% |
72 |
38 |
34 |
| North Carolina |
May 06 |
53.5% |
36.0% |
115 |
67 |
48 |
| West Virginia |
May 13 |
27.0% |
55.0% |
28 |
9 |
19 |
| Kentucky |
May 20 |
26.0% |
62.0% |
51 |
16 |
35 |
| Oregon |
May 20 |
52.0% |
42.0% |
52 |
29 |
23 |
| Puerto Rico |
Jun 01 |
37.0% |
50.0% |
55 |
24 |
31 |
| Montana |
Jun 03 |
-- |
-- |
16 |
8 |
8 |
| South Dakota |
Jun 03 |
46.0% |
34.0% |
15 |
8 |
7 |
| Total |
June 10 |
-- |
-- |
566 |
276 |
290 |
This leads to the following projection:
Democratic nomination campaign delegate projection
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Total 1 |
1,771 |
1,698 |
31 |
915 |
2,208 |
| Projected |
276 |
290 |
0 |
-566 |
-- |
| Pelosi Club |
6 |
-1 |
0 |
-5 |
-- |
| Vacant |
3 |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
-- |
| Add-on |
37 |
33 |
0 |
-70 |
-- |
| Total 2 |
2,093 |
2,020 |
31 |
271 |
2,208 |
From this point, Obama would need 115 of the remaining 271, or 42.5%, of the non-add-on, non-Pelosi Club superdelegates in order to secure the nomination. Clinton would need 188 of those same 271 superdelegates, or 69.4%, in order to win. The thirty-one Edwards delegates might also come into play here, making an Edwards endorsement key. If Edwards were to endorse Obama, it would effectively end the campaign. If Edwards were to endorse Clinton, it would breathe new life into her chances, and give her a legitimate, though still unlikely, shot at winning the nomination.
The final delegate selection events take place on June 21st, when seven add-on delegates are chosen at six state conventions around the country. It is a reasonable bet that the nomination campaign will continue until that point. Superdelegates have been given a deadline of July 1st by many party leaders, and it is difficult to imagine they would continue to wait much longer after June 21st anyway. Also, Edwards should be pushed to make an endorsement if the campaign remains undecided by that point.
As far as the popular vote goes, I don't think it will come too much into play. If Michigan and Florida are included in the totals, and if most or all of the Michigan uncommitted are allocated to Obama, and if popular estimations from caucus states without popular votes are included, and if one takes into account the likely 200K to 300K Clinton will gain in the popular vote between now and June 3rd, the difference between the candidates will be very small, and also quite debatable. In the end, this is 4,415 separate, small campaigns to elect delegates, and those delegates will decide the nomination. It looks like Obama has enough, but barring a surprise victory in Pennsylvania, I don't expect him to seal it up until June. Clinton dropping out after a big Obama sweep on May 6th is possible, but with West Virginia on May 13th, and Kentucky on May 20th, I won't hold my breath.
Update: Post edited to reflect new polls that now show Obama ahead in Indiana. |
