Information is currently spotty, but right now it appears that Obama won most, but not quite all, of the uncommitted slots at the Michigan district conventions. Relevant news article:
Sen. Barack Obama's supporters appeared to fall short of capturing all the 36 uncommitted delegates chosen Saturday during Democratic congressional district conventions across the state.
In three Southeast Michigan districts, activists supported by Michiganders for Obama, the Illinois senator's ad hoc organization in the state, lost out to union-backed candidates, said Christina Montague, the group's state coordinator. Elsewhere across the state, the Obama group's appeared to fare well, she said.
Michiganders for Obama currently claims 15 delegate victories, but their list is clearly incomplete. I have found news reports confirming that Obama supporters won both uncommitted spots in the 3rd, 7th, and 8th, districts, along with two of the three in the 9th, adding at least another six to Obama's total. Montague also expressed confidence that Obama supporters won both uncommitted slots in the 2nd district, which would increase Obama's total to at least 23 or the 36, although I can't find a confirming news report at this time.
UAW supporters, but not necessarily Clinton supporters, appear to have won at least four of the uncommitted slots, snagging at least one in each of the 9th, 12th, 13th and 14th districts. The UAW in Michigan has not endorsed a candidate, so this move harkens back to old-school, pres-1972 conventions. Back then, unions and local party bosses locked down blocks of delegates, thus giving them tremendous leverage at the convention. The UAW appears to have pulled exactly that off in Michigan, to the tune of at least four delegates, and possibly more. Maybe we should start a "UAW" column on delegate counts, right next to the Edwards totals. If Obama stumbles in upcoming states, the nomination might go through Edwards and / or the UAW.
A complete list of the delegates selected at the district conventions will be released on Monday, making the count far more exact. Right now, my count is 47 for Clinton, 23 for Obama, 4 for the UAW, and 9 that I cannot confirm. While it isn't the 47-36 split that would have been ideal for Obama supporters, it is still a lot better than the 47-0 split that he faced entering the day. Every delegate that Obama managed to pick up in Michigan is important, as it begins to seal off Clinton's last remaining shot at the nomination. Even if Obama only manages to pick up 42 of the 55 uncommitted delegates in Michigan, with 13 going UAW, it increases his overall lead to 60 delegates even with Michigan and Florida included (click here for more). Further, such a total would guarantee that Obama will win a majority of pledged delegates even with Michigan and Florida included. Yet further, and most important of all, it would give Obama a very good chance to reach 2,208 in June.
It is delegate-counting season again. The next big event for Michigan is on May 17th, where the remaining 19 uncommitted delegates will be determined at the state party convention. Obama supporters need to win as many of those slots as possible, since it will improve the campaign's starting position if there are credentials fights. The fewer delegates that Obama has to challenge in order to reach 2,208, the better. Ideally, his campaign will not need to challenge any delegates in order to reach 2,208.
Update: Both 2nd district uncommitteds confirmed for Obama. Still looking for more info in the 12th, 13th and 14th districts. The 24 uncommitteds outside of those districts are confirmed as 23-1 in favor of Obama, with the remaining delegate going to the UAW in the 9th CD by a single vote.
Update 2: Great information provided in the comments by empywheel, and also in this thread over at Michigan Liberal. Some updates:
- It appears that AFSCME, a union that has enodrsed Clinton, was also involved in organizing around the uncommitted delegates. So, there definitely was an attempt by Clinton supporters to secure some of the uncommitted, even if it did not necessarily work.
- Michiganders for Obama was not the only pro-Obama group doing the organizing. So, while some MfO people lost, that does not necessarily mean they lost to non-Obama people.
- Obama supporters won both uncommitted slots in the 11th, not just one. Also, people who claim to be Obama supporters won all three slots in the 12th. So, that makes the count 27-1, with results from the 13th and 14th CDs still unknown. However, these are not exactly the most solid Obama delegates around, as some of them were won by old Edwards supporters, and even some people who switched from Clinton a couple months ago.
In other words, it appears that Obama has ostensibly won just about all of the 36 uncommitted delegates, perhaps only missing one delegate in the 9th because of divisions among Obama supporting groups. However, a dozen or so of the Obama delegates are weak supporters, and might actually be truly uncommitted or even backing Clinton. I'll consider it a 35-1 Obama victory for now, but that number is tentative pending future information. In truth, mistrust of some of the more machine or union oriented Obama supporters who won the uncommitted slots is probably just hard-core Obama grassroots paranoia. If someone publicly says they are for Obama, I see no reason not to trust them until they publicly declare something has changed. |
