Do these polls factor in the (0.00 / 0)

university and college students?  I don't know the numbers, but I keep hearing that there are huge numbers of college students and young activists that support Obama.  These folks often do not have land-lines and depend on cellphones for their connection to the world.  How are these folks influence factored into the survey methodologies?  Or, are they not factored in?  

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by: cabresch @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:24:51 AM CDT

Obama wins by minus-10! (0.00 / 0)

Clinton by 10%, +14 delegates. Which, of course, will be a huge win for Obama, considering how much ground Clinton has to make up. Though I don't expect the media to notice this for several days...

I'm also curoius about this: since Clinton's last remaining quasi-possible path to the nomination involves winning the overall popular vote, how big of a popular vote win will she get?

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by: Chachy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:27:01 AM CDT

Not enough (0.00 / 0)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- To overtake Barack Obama in the nationwide popular vote, Hillary Clinton needs a bigger win in tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary than she has had in any major contest so far. And that's just for starters.

After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.  

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:44:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Supers Will Decide (0.00 / 0)

With all the upcoming spin that a loss is a win for Obama people are conveniently forgetting that Supers will decide the nomination.

In fact people would like to forget that Obama needs the Supers as much as Clinton does. The only question is who will the supers vote for? Of course because the Supers mandate is to vote their own minds Obama supporters have been on a crusade to change that landscape so that their candidate is favored. In other words they are trying to change the public perception of the rules midstream. Try as they may the Supers will still vote their own minds.

According to AP they are looking to be moved more by "Electability" than by any other factor:

About 250 superdelegates have told the AP they are undecided or uncommitted. About 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings this spring.

AP reporters across the nation contacted the undecideds and asked them how they plan to choose. Of those, 117 agreed to discuss the decision-making process.

- About a third said the most important factor will be the candidate who, they believe, has the best chance of beating Republican John McCain in the general election.

- One in 10 said the biggest factor will be the candidate with the most pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

- One in 10 said what matters most is who won their state or congressional district in the primary or caucus.

- The rest cited multiple factors or parochial issues.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

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by: Super Delegate @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:19:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

''Obama needs the Supers as much as Clinton does.'' (0.00 / 0)

True. But he needs significantly less than she does. As a matter of interest what are you expecting the outcome to be tomorrow?

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:31:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

He may need less (0.00 / 0)

but the big problem is that if he gets what he needs will he win the WH? After all this is what this is all about - winning the WH - not Obama.

Given that Clinton is carrying the majority of the 'lowly working class' White voter as opposed th the highly touted 'creative class' voter things may not look so good for him winning the WH with polls showing that 28% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain instead of Obama. I'm giving an educated guess that those 28% are the same 'lowly working class' White voter who we once called Reagan Democrats and who without cost us the election.

You see winning the WH is really about who we can get to vote for us in the General election. It isn't about who privileged Caucus goers like as they don't represent the typical general election voter in any way. As we have seen the nominee who the Democratic Party has nominated has as of late not faired well at all and much of the reason for our nominee being who they have been is based on Caucuses like Iowa and others which are dominated by the privileged Caucus goers who don't represent the typical general election voter in any way.

So what we have are people picking out nominee based on their criteria which hasn't been the criteria of the majority of General Election voters. History shows that but yet many people in our party just don't get it. They would rater pick their supposedly ideological choice and lose the WH than pick a person that can win the WH. It's bizarre.

Obama loses those 28% of 'lowly working class' Reagan Democrats in key states and we most likely lost the WH. And that is not to mention the voters we will lose by the slime job that will be done to Obama using his own words and chosen affiliations and are bound to cost him even more lost votes. Already we have had the debate last week and Russert on Sunday and that is just the tip of the iceberg.

So you wish for Obama to be the nominee? As the old saying goes: Watch What You Wish For.

As for tomorrow I think the polls are about right and as Chris and several others have said could end up a point or two higher for Clinton.

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by: Super Delegate @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:57:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Fair point (0.00 / 0)

Obviously he has had a weakness in the primary with working-class whites but could it not also be said that she is weak with African-Americans, men, younger voters and liberals? If the presumption is that Obama can't compete with McCain with people he has lost in the primary what makes you think she will fair any better with people she has lost in the primary?

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:12:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You can answer your own question (0.00 / 0)

by asking yourself how many polls have you seen that say Obama supporters will vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee? I haven't seen any.

I doubt that the demographics you mentioned will vote for McCain. And if they are smart they will not stay away from the polls altogether.

You see the working class White Reagan Democrats I mentioned are the Conservative Wing of the Party for the most part and their numbers are many. A guy like McCain can appeal to them just like Reagan appealed to them and the polls bare that out.

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by: Super Delegate @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:47:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

There are plenty of polls... (0.00 / 0)

...to support either view of who is a stronger general election candidate.  But I agree that he has work to do with certain demographics as would she with the independents that he performs better with against McCain. They both have their own strengths and weaknesses which I think tend to cancel each other out.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:57:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

''You can answer your own question by asking yourself how... (0.00 / 0)

...many polls have you seen that say Obama supporters will vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee? I haven't seen any.''

19% of Obama supporters in the latest Gallup say they will vote for McCain over Hillary. Granted, he loses more than she does but 19% is still significant. Seems they both have work to do to make sure Democrats vote for the Democratic candidate.  

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:08:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is garbage (0.00 / 0)

Oh because Obama can't win against another Democrat than that means those who voted for Clinton won't vote for him in the General?

Hello!!  Our economy is crashing.  80% of the country thinks we are on the wrong track.  The occupation is going nowhere.  Our mortgage crisis is potentially a trillion dollar timebomb and all McCain can come up with is more tax cuts for the rich.  Either Democratic nominee will change tactics in the General.  It is a really really simple "Are you better off than you were eight years ago?  Do you feel safer?  Do you believe our children face a better future because of the actions of the Republican Party?"  This is a no-brainer for the other 72% of the country.  People are sick and tired of the Republican Party and after the economy goes off the cliff this Summer folks are going to be really really bitter about paying $4/gallon with their unemployment checks.  Losing a difficult primary to Clinton isn't any harbinger of doom for Obama.  It just makes him tougher and more seasoned to deliver the Democratic message of change in November.  Everyone predicting an Obama meltdown aren't very informed about the sad state of our economy.  "It's about the economy stupid".

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 13:05:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know (0.00 / 0)

just because superdelegates cite "electability" as their main issue of concern doesn't necessarily mean, by any stretch of the imagination, that they support HRC.  Just because her campaign is claiming she's more electable doesn't mean that superdelegates (especially those from red and purple states) agree.  For all we know, a lot of those superdelegates might think Obama is more electable.

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by: expatriatedjerseyan @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 13:52:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know (0.00 / 0)

just because superdelegates cite "electability" as their main issue of concern doesn't necessarily mean, by any stretch of the imagination, that they support BHO.

Just because his campaign is claiming he's more electable doesn't mean that superdelegates (especially those from Blue and purple states) agree.  For all we know, a lot of those superdelegates might think Clinton is more electable.

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by: Super Delegate @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 20:45:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My best guess... (4.00 / 1)

Clinton by 12.

If you watch the trends over the last couple of primaries, she seems to do better with late deciders after Obama closes the gap for a couple of weeks.

Plus, it seems the undecideds are more like Clinton voters than Obama voters.

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by: NGB @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:36:39 AM CDT

52-48 Clinton (0.00 / 0)

  Another victory for Clinton as big as Texas = not very big.  The 10th district will go 3-1 in favor of Hillary in the delegate count there.  I think the 17th district will be a pretty uneventful delegate split.  I think Clinton will be real close to getting a 4-1 split in the 11th and 12th districts, but she won't get it.  No 4-1 splits for Clinton.  81-77 in favor of Clinton.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

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by: cilerder86 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:42:26 AM CDT

I expect her to take the undecideds by a 2-1 margin (4.00 / 1)

So she probably takes it 55-45. With her money problems it wouldn't surprise me if she has to conceed NC and go all in in IN to continue. I think he closes this out with a win in Indiana.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:42:56 AM CDT

Clinton will win... so what? (4.00 / 2)

I predict a 10-12% Clinton win, something like 56%-44%.

Does any of this even matter though? Isn't Obama as the nominee pretty much a done deal thanks to the pledged delegate lead he's already built and having won twice as many contests? I can't see the superdelegates overturning the pledged delegate winner based on Clinton winning the overall popular vote by a tiny margin (which I highly doubt she will even manage to do even including Florida and Michigan with the Michigan uncommitted assigned to Obama). Clinton's arguments to the superdelegates is that Obama is unelectable but hasn't that been thoroughly disproven by the fact that he has won more contests and delegates than her? If he is unelectable, then she is even more so anyway. She needs to win every remaining contest by enormous (>25%) margins to give the superdelegates a real reason to override the pledged delegates. That would demonstrate that Rev. Wright and "bitter" had greatly damaged him. But I don't see that happening. He'll lose Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, and Kentucky by roughly the same margins he would have before these flaps, and he'll win North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Montanta, and possibly Indiana. Unless the superdelegates for some reason buy into her crap about big states, swing states, and states with large electoral college votes, this race is over.

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by: redwards95 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:46:58 AM CDT

I agree (0.00 / 0)

Her best scenario looks like a 56-44 win while his is probably a 53-47 loss. Neither matters either way in the big picture. Obama has been presumptive nominee since Wisconsin.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:05:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Early Voting? (0.00 / 0)

Chris, when referencing "early voting" as a factor in favor of Clinton, do you really mean absentee voting? There is no early voting in Pennsylvania, as seen in Ohio, Texas, California, etc, correct? In many of those states, that made up almost 25% of the electorate, and almost certainly cost Obama California.  

Also, I've read absentee voting is somewhat difficult and limited?

Also, latest Rasmussen released a few minutes ago has it at a 5-point margin, but Obama pronounced this morning that he is going to do very well, thereby heightening expectations a bit.  That tells me his internals are looking quite good (under 5?)  

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by: Mo1239 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:04:32 AM CDT

absentee voting in PA (0.00 / 0)

The voter must be physically unable to appear at the polls, either by illness or by being out of town on that date, and request an absentee ballot well ahead of time. The absentee voter who, contrary to expectations, is physically able to appear at the polls on election day is expected to vote in person, and the absentee ballot is then destroyed.

The Obama people in my red county are out in force and have been for weeks, and all we've had from the Clinton campaign are robocalls.

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by: Joyful Alternative @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 22:04:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Turnout? (0.00 / 0)

What happens if turnout in Philadelphia is huge enough to keep the popular vote as tight as PPP seems to be predicting?, with 45% of the total vote coming from the southeastern part of the state? Will the delegate count still end up around 83-75, as predicted by that reliable old leaked Excel spreadsheet from the Obama campaign?

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by: HatchInBrooklyn @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:12:01 AM CDT

C54 - O44 (0.00 / 0)

I agree with what Matt Stoller said just before "mini" super Tuesday:

I have no idea what is going to happen, but my general rule of thumb is that the most annoying scenario is also the most likely scenario

By that, I predict Clinton will win about +10 (say 54C - 44O).  Enough to get a moral victory, but not even close enough to start eating away at Obama's pledged delegate lead.  Therefore, this prolonged argument about who's the most "electable" continues at least into June.

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by: dmineau @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:40:19 AM CDT

not that annoying (0.00 / 0)

That wouldn't be all that annoying though as it pretty much is what everybody expects. The annoying scenario would be a huge Clinton win (16% or more) which would make the media babble non-stop about how Obama was damaged by Wright and bitter for 2 weeks until he wins North Carolina.  

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by: redwards95 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:48:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clinton by 5 (0.00 / 0)

And I won't be surprised if Obama wins. Obama's upside is higher because his field has been able to focus for so long on PA and because the TV disparity will help him with very-late deciders.

Clinton by 5, but Clinton by 1 is more likely than Clinton by 9.  

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by: Tom Gilpin Jr @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:00:08 AM CDT

Number Crunching (0.00 / 0)

At the district level, I have Clinton +3.

The polls have shown a dead heat in the Philly 'burbs. That probably means that Obama is winning one or two districts while losing the others -- it would be freakish if she won all three of them by two or three percent.

Philly area:
PA-01: Obama +3 (maybe +1)
PA-02: Obama +5
PA-06: even
PA-07: Obama +1 (9.6% African-American, 54% of whites are college degree holders or students, highest % of new voters and switchers outside of Penn State, Delaware County has a smaller % of registered Democrats than Bucks or Montgomery County)
PA-08: Clinton +1
PA-13: Clinton +1 -- this is the swing district
PA-15: Clinton +1 (but I can never tell if Bethlehem/Allentown count as "Southeast" or "Northeast" for pollster purposes)
PA-16: even
PA-17: even (7-9% African-American thanks to Harrisburg should be enough to prevent a blowout)
PA-19: even

Northeast:
PA-10: Clinton +2
PA-11: Clinton +3

Central:
PA-05: even
PA-09: Clinton +1

West:
PA-03: Clinton +1
PA-04: Clinton +1
PA-12: Clinton +1 (maybe +3)
PA-14: Obama +1 (at 20% African-American, he only needs about 25% of the white vote, and the district has enough college students and degree holders)
PA-18: Clinton +1

And the popular vote margin is almost locked in at Clinton +5; she has to get almost 56% of the vote to get to +7.

So I think it will be 83-75. The possible swings are the 1st (to Clinton), the 13th (to Obama), the 12th (to Clinton), and the at-large. So I think at the best it's 82-76, and at worse it's 86-74.

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by: nbeaudrot @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:07:08 AM CDT

My prediction is that Obama wins (0.00 / 0)

With the undecideds heavily going towards him.

Why?  2 reasons.

1 Focus - Obama forced a narrow loss in texas with less time.  I think the more time he has the greater his chances

2 Its much later in the game.  People are less voting for the candidate and more voting for whether or not they want to support the nominee.  The idea of Hillary winning fades with every election and makes the next easier.

3 that PPP poll, If I hadn't seen one positive poll I probably wouldn't have made that prediction.  

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

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by: TerraFF @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:27:23 AM CDT

I agree. (0.00 / 0)

   I don't think Obama will win the primary, but I think he will win a slight majority of the late deciders.  I don't really understand people who predict Hillary winning late deciders 2-1.  She only won 60% of the late deciders in Texas after a really terrible news cycle for Obama.  Obama had more time in Pennsylvania and a better news cycle.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

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by: cilerder86 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:21:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Never (4.00 / 1)

I saw above, and in other places, that 28% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Hillary does not get ther nomination. This is ridculous but it looks good trying to the super delegates to vote for her. THere is no way all those women, and men, are going to vote for an anti abortion canidate. It may take a little time for them to cool down but in the end, except for a few of the "bitter" one, they will all pick the democrat.

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by: khiid @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:00:21 PM CDT

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

Part of it is because they are upset that their candidate isn't going to win. Most will come round but he has fences to mend.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:14:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

10 and 17 (0.00 / 0)

Why would Clinton do better in the district with Harrisburg (large black population) than in the tenth, which is all white?  I also think that, given the way the polling has been of late, Clinton's going to be hard pressed to win any of the 5 delegate districts 4-1.  12th would still be most likely, I guess.

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by: jlkenney @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 15:54:44 PM CDT

The 17th (0.00 / 0)

Having worked the hardest part of the 17th for the past month (Schuylkill County), I don't see any possible outcome other than a 2-2 delegate split.

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by: kjblair @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 22:02:49 PM CDT