Here are two photographs I took on opposite sides of City Hall today, both during rush hour traffic.
In addition to being on different sides of the street and / or with their backs to each other, these dueling rallies that featured clearly different demographics of activists, and were making chants clearly riffing off each other. There was a lot of car honking, but it wasn't clear which rallies were receiving the support because they were so close to each other.
I wrote two posts today about ending the campaign, which you can read here and here. After walking around and thinking about it for a while, I have come to the conclusion that the party just isn't ready for the nomination campaign to be over yet. The Obama campaign, and Obama supporters, are still attacking Clinton, clearly a sign they don't consider the campaign to be over. Clinton is still raising money at nearly the same level as John Kerry in 2004, clearly a sign that Democratic activists are not ready for the campaign to be over. Clinton still leads in four states and jurisdictions that have yet to vote, clearly a sign that Democratic voters are not ready for the campaign to end. Hundreds of media personnel and millions of viewers tuned into the debate last Wednesday, clearly a sign that the media and the general public are not ready for the nomination campaign to end.
The nomination campaign will end when the party as a whole is ready for it to end. Right now, I just don't see it, not even from the Obama campaign. Canceling the North Carolina debate today is a sign that the desire to end the campaign is growing, but that desire is still not at a critical mass. When there is a critical mass, Clinton's support in national polls will collapse, her fundraising will dry up, superdelegates will start to move en masse, and the media will stop covering it because the general election is getting more ratings. All of those things are happening to different extents already and, unless Clinton manages to pull out a victory in Indiana, after May 6th I expect a rapid acceleration of the process.
No one can force the campaign to end before the party is ready for it to end, not even Clinton. In order to keep the party unified in the fall, Obama needs to build up a dominating lead among the rank and file during the nomination campaign. Right now, even though he is virtually assured of winning the nomination, he just doesn't have it. National polls put him right at 50%, according to both Pollster.com and RCP. The unifying process has to happen, in significant measure, during the nomination campaign itself. While we are slowly moving in the right direction, we have not yet reached a sufficient point. If the nomination campaign were to end before the rank and file was ready, then the unification process would be more difficult to the pre-emption of acclimation and closure. In six or seven weeks time, I'm pretty sure that the party will be ready, and that the process will take care of itself. For now, however, I'm fine with working toward that point while the process continues to play itself out. The remainder of the primary season is part of the party's healing process. It won't be over until more of the party is ready to move on from Clinton. |
