Preliminary Exit Poll Numbers

by: fladem

Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 17:51

CNN (via Markos) has some Exit Poll numbers:

Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O

The last SurveyUSA had Obama winning the African American vote 87-11 and had Clinton leading among seniors 62-32.

Update #1 (5:59)
From ABC:
6 in 10 are female (SUSA had it at 55%, this is good for Clinton) , and "just under half" have a college degree (SUSA had this at 44%, this is good for Obama).  
Update #2 (6:05)
From Time about 20% made up their mind in the last week, versus 30% in Ohio and an average of 31% in the Super Tuesday states.  This isn't a surprise given the length of the campaign.  About 30% where over 65, which represents a significant difference from SUSA's 22% (and good news for Clinton).
Update #3: (6:18) According to the National Review, Drudge has the exit poll reversed, and the right numbers are Obama 52, Clinton 47.  And after citing those two sources in the same sentence, I now feel the need to remind ourselves to take all of this with a grain of salt.  
Update #4 (6:29) : There is no way the National Review can be right: ABC has Clinton winning by 10 among white men.  
Update #5 (6:42) : Via Markos, Mark Blumenthal at the National Journal notes that the 6:00 PM exit polls have consistently favored Obama by about 7 points more than the final result.  The National Review post referenced above links to an analysis also suggesting about a 7 point bias for Obama.  

fladem :: Preliminary Exit Poll Numbers

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If (0.00 / 0)
and I mean IF these numbers are correct, and everything else holds as SUSA predicts it will, that 6 point Clinton lead could really be narrowed.  I'm deeply skeptical, but my fingers will be crossed.

Don't get your hopes up (0.00 / 0)
The early Ohio exit polls gave Obama a 2-point win, when in fact he lost by 10. So if these exits are showing a 4-point Hillary win, I'm guessing she wins by 8-12 points.

These exit polls always cause headaches for Obama by raising expectations way too much. He's not gonna win, it's not gonna be within 5 points, but at the same time Hillary still has no chance to win the nomination.

Hillary started out with a 15-20 point lead. Obama closed it, but there's only so much he can do when they are identical on the issues. And when PA demographics are so tilted in Hillary's favor.

[ Parent ]
You're mostly right (0.00 / 0)
I just think that Pennsylvania demographics are slightly better than Ohio's - enough to boost Obama 2, but probably not more than 4 points.  I'm not trying to draw huge conclusions, but just using demographic trends to see how might underperform and who might overperform.  My prediction is Hillary by 5, probably closer to 8, certainly not more than 10.  I would be shocked if she won by less than 5 or more than 10, but even if SUSA is off by a little bit in Hillary's favor (which might be the case), they only had her at a 6 point lead, and that could be cut by 1-3 points.

[ Parent ]
Could be Clinton by 2% (0.00 / 0)
Drudge is Obama +5, overstates him by 7, so it's Clinton by 2.  I can live with that.  Can she?

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
This looks like (0.00 / 0)
a 3 point loss if it holds, for Obama...

They never hold up (4.00 / 1)
Every time the early exit polls have Obama in good shape, but they are always far from the reality of the vote.

Really? (0.00 / 0)
Didn't the Wisconsin exit polls undercall Obama's win?

I think the only thing you can really say is that the networks will not be immediately declaring anyone the winner at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[ Parent ]
If he is only losing white men by 10... (4.00 / 3) will be close. She won them by 19 in Ohio.

Great Point (4.00 / 1)
but I still think that translates into a Clinton win.

But not a big win.

[ Parent ]
Yeah me too (0.00 / 0)
Am thinking 52-48 might be about right.

[ Parent ]
Which means Drudge is right (0.00 / 0)
and the National Review is wrong....

[ Parent ]
Polls, I believe, also had a bigger discrepancy (0.00 / 0)
Haven't the polls showed her up more than 10 with white men as well?

[ Parent ]
It is beautiful (4.00 / 3)
According to the National Review, Drudge has the exit poll reversed

So now we're left debating leaks that are very likely fake, of exit polls that are very likely wrong anyway. Beautiful.

But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty's forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at one-hundred-and-forty-five million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than one-hundred-and-forty-five millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot. And so it was with every class of recorded fact, great or small. Everything faded away into a shadow-world in which, finally, even the date of the year had become uncertain.

exit polls (0.00 / 0)
exit polls from ABC look good for Clinton. Older voters turned out heavily, African Americans did not, rural people turned out heavily, urban ones not that much.

Plenty of people .. (0.00 / 0)
are just getting home from work at 6pm ... we'll see what happens

[ Parent ]
7 point bias? (0.00 / 0)
So depending on which numbers cited are correct it is either a 4 or an 11 point win. If the demographics are right the former looks most likely but who knows really. We will find out soon enough.

So based on all the exits and all the disclaimers and (4.00 / 2)
all the grains of salt, we can divine from this exit data that it's going to be somewhere between Obama +3 and Clinton +20.

And who said these things aren't accurate?!


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