*Prints out this post, tapes to side of monitor* (4.00 / 3)

For when I have that feeling of creeping doom and kind of want to curl up and gibber.

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by: LockeOak @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:22:52 PM CDT

I'm fretting, so sue me (0.00 / 0)

Sure, right now, more states have to vote.  And it's good that more states get to be part of the processs.

But still - as Chris says, we are looking at a floor fight, that gives McCain lots and lots of time, and the Democrats less time, to prepare for November.

How bruising will the floor fight be?  How bad could it get?

If I was Hillary, and has as big a base as she does in the democratic party, I wouldn't step off.  So the ineluctable logic, leads us to a floor fight.

Sorry, I fret.

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by: JC @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:25:11 PM CDT

Skeptical (0.00 / 0)

I don't know, I'm still skeptical of a floor fight.  I realize Clinton is not likely to give up easily, but I have a hard time seeing her being taken seriously after the final states have voted, even if she does stay in to the convention.  There is the very real possibility that the media will keep alive the horserace narrative for the ratings, yes, but even that I'm not sure about.

If Clinton performs very well from here on out, all bets are off.  But I think after NC and Indiana and Oregon, people are going to start considering Clinton done, and her money will start to dry up, and the press will start to get interested in the general election.

I hope so, anyway.

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by: aimlessmind @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:41:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm with you (0.00 / 0)

I hope the same.  

Let's see what happens in Indiana.  If demographics are destiny for these two candidates (at least 90% destiny), and each base is going to stubbornly cling to their candidate - hopefully we'll get an idea of what will happen in NC and IN.

Barack needs to get to the magic number though - she isn't going to concede until that happens.

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by: JC @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:50:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Magic Number (0.00 / 0)

I definitely agree on the magic number.  At the end of the day, Obama needs to seal this off, lock it down.  I can't imagine Clinton not going to the convention if he doesn't have the necessary delegates locked down to win.  Even if he does, she may try to flip them.  But in that scenario, I don't think she'll have much traction--either in terms of actually flipping delegates or even in the media or public opinion.

But yes, Indiana will be key.  If the recent polling leads hold and Obama wins the state, I have to think that kills any Clinton momentum and truly begins the process of ending this thing, whether or not she drops out.

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by: aimlessmind @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:56:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm worried about it being an open primary... (0.00 / 0)

...lots of Limbaugh republicans coming in to muck up our train!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

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by: lord_mike @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 23:08:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

no, dont spoil it for me (4.00 / 3)

I'm now rooting for Hillary die hards who are threatening to vote for McCain if she loses to actually do so. They'll get what they deserve and I'll get their house at 1/3 of the price.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

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by: Will @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:39:31 PM CDT

Excellent Benchmark (0.00 / 0)

I think it's already been established that R+7 is is ours for the taking.  Now we've upped that three points.

Of course it should be harder against incumbents.  But, then, those are the folks who were actually part and parcel of everything folks don't like about the GOP, so maybe not.

We really could take 50+ seats in the House.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:40:54 PM CDT

that's the attitude! (4.00 / 1)

Just saw Bob Herbert saying the stars would have to perfectly align for either Obama or Clinton to win the White House. I don't get it. And I'm not an optimist by nature. But every single imaginable macro trend is screaming that the Democrats will win big this year.

I guess if it comes as a huge shock to folks in the media, that'll just make it all the more impressive to them.  

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by: Chachy @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:59:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If the Democrat were a white guy I'd be with you (4.00 / 1)

That's the big macro factor not in our favor. And it's a pretty big one.  

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by: Korha @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:23:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've been tempted to get a bumpersticker (0.00 / 0)

"Annoy the media, vote Democrat!"

But I just can't bring myself to copy the Reaganistas.

Montani semper liberi

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by: Sadie Baker @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 09:55:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

But You'd Be Annoying Them, Too! (4.00 / 1)

In situtations like this, I think you've got to go for the two-fer.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:02:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

fretting is fine (4.00 / 2)

just don't lose sleep over it.

All the pro-choice women who support Clinton aren't going to rush to McCain if she doesn't get the nomination.  All the blue collar workers who back Clinton won't fall for the blue blood scams again.  Republicans can't fake an economic miracle before the election so anyone who is remotely concerned about their paycheck isn't going to trust more of the same McCain to help them through these hard times.  All the soccer moms who thought security was the most important issue in 2004 are four years closer to having their kids serve in Iraq.  They are going to reconsider how secure their kids are going to be riding shotgun on a lightly armored Humvee.  Democrats have turned out in unprecedented numbers to show their support for their candidates.  That sense of "now's our time" isn't going to go away just because one has to lose this battle.  What great competitors.

What lame crap can Republicans run on?  More fear.  That's overrated this time.  Economics?  Give me a break.  We might be seeing a political decline on par with the Whigs.

Fret but don't fear.  After this epic battle the Democratic nominee is going to enjoy taking the tongs to McCain.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 22:45:52 PM CDT

well (4.00 / 1)

It's a good think we didn't nominate Kerry again, because then all the things you said won't happen would have happened (again). I think either Clinton or Obama will be better with the rapid response type stuff, and will do a better job defining the opponent...

But I think McCain will definitely pull a page out of Lieberman's blurring-the-lines book. In fact, McCain wrote that book, so we KNOW that's going to be his narrative. He'll spout out things about honor and steadiness to please the hardcore 30%ers (I guess it's less than 30% these days) and at the same time try to put Bush at arm's distance enough to appeal to independents. Lieberman pulled it off in '06 with Republicans and a large enough chunk of independents who were opposed to the Iraq war. So expect to see a mix of message about winning the battle against war, with continued warnings about the dangers of pulling out but AT THE SAME TIME oxymoronic platitudes along the lines of Lieberman's "Nobody wants to bring the troops home more than I do".

I like the messaging on youtube tying Iraq directly to the economy. That is one of the angles to attack from that can reach so-called swing voters. (And I don't mean to bring back the swing voters from the 90's when the idea was to win them by being hawkish, but to illustrate that we have to win those voters by contrasting McCain from the Democratic nominee).

"I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that."
-Lawrence Summers

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by: kbuck @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 23:19:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Vote Suppression and Disinterest (4.00 / 1)

I'm not certain the issue is whether former Clinton or Obama supporters will vote for McCain in the GE, should their candidate not be the Dem nominee.

The issue is that they might simply stay home on election day - or leave the top of the ticket blank.

Thus far, however, the huge turn-out numbers in the primaries says that such is not a real concern - yet.  Personally, I think this may be the benefit of this "protracted" primary campaign: it has maintained voter interest.  Maybe I'm jaded and cynical, but I'm relatively certain that the GOP actively works to suppress voter turn-out by trying to convince folks that their tiny little vote really means very little.  

Whether the eventual Dem nominee gets the full benefit of the apparent wave of interest and support for the party depends upon whether the two candidates still standing can bring this whole exercise to conclusion without driving away the supporters of the other.  Its an up-hill challenge because the M$M is (I believe) on the side of suppression and the status quo.  Both candidates talk about "unity" and "bringing people together" - the time for those words to become reality is approaching.  Let's hope they are not just flapping their gums.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

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by: SpitBall @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 08:21:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ticket-splitting (4.00 / 2)

Nothing here suggests that voters aren't going to split their tickets and decide a bigger Democratic Congressional majority and a McCain Administration isn't the best way to provide that lovely bipartisanship they keep being told they're supposed to want.

Democrats are going to be just fine in the Congressional races no matter what happens with the presidential race. But by no means does that Congressional strength automatically translate over to that presidential race.

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by: Robert in Monterey @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 23:22:14 PM CDT

Given That The Press Is McCain's Base (0.00 / 0)

It was always a given that he'd be far and away the strongest GOP candidate. So this could definitely still happen.

But there have been repeated signs that his base may not stay solid for him.  I think that netroots activisim can play an important role in facilitating that fragmentation, which could prove crucial in defeating him.

But nothing is given.  It has to be taken.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:05:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Democrats will be fine if... (0.00 / 0)

Democrats will be fine if both candidates are on the ticket. They've gotten lots of voters out, and if both sides are represented in whatever fashion, only the foolish would run vote for McCain or sit it out.

Obama will take the nomination if he gets enough to win. He hasn't done that, and this constant presumption that just because he's ahead he'll get it is a bit irritating, but I don't really care - it's over when it's over. Just as delegates have shifted towards Obama, they can shift back again.

Obama fans would do well to get their worries about Bill Clinton behind them - he hasn't shown up on the Senate floor from what I've seen.

None of the blood on the floor makes much difference if both candidates are working together - it is a "buy one get one free" situation (and a better bargain than Republicans gave us in 2000/2004).

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by: Desider @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:16:03 AM CDT

They will not be on the same ticket (0.00 / 0)

I'm favor of Clinton/Obama myself... but let's face it, it ain't happening. Obama/Clinton is even more impossible and not even a good idea.

P. S. Never underestimate the "foolish" vote.  

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by: Korha @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:27:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hillary will be in the senate (4.00 / 2)

And she will have every reason to mend fences.  

I'd agree that this election should be a cakewalk.  The vietnam war gave republicans 30 years of cultural realignment.  The Iraq war will do the same for democrats

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

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by: TerraFF @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:35:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Forest (4.00 / 1)

Matt's third paragraph is a great description of the forest, not the trees, and it is to be commended for its economy of words.  Still, if we get the most annoying scenaro two weeks from tonight and something else goes wrong it could get a lot worse.  For the first time in awhile I guess I'm less optimistic than most here.

One of the worst things about this race is how distractions are becoming the main story, streams are becoming rivers, sidelights are hogging the spotlight.  It's beginning to remind me of the general election campaign of 1988.  That was not a good year.  Might we be hearing a LOT more about flag pins soon?  I still am an optimist about the tide, its rising and its on our side even as the country sinks a little deeper into the mud.  The difference, now, is that the most annoying is slowly becoming the most realistic.  

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by: howardpark @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:30:07 AM CDT

Okay- that's kind of impressive. (0.00 / 0)

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by: bruhrabbit @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:48:06 AM CDT

I would still tend to agree that Democrats will be just fine.... (4.00 / 5)

.... but I'm only willing to take that as far as 2008. I think by far the biggest factor in my conclusion is that the Republican brand is deep into the toilet and the GOP keeps flushing itself more each day. I'm more than concerned, however, that the Democratic Party on the national level, for the most part, has not done much to change the terms of the debate in this country (or even really tried) nor has proven that it's up to the task of governing. So, I expect to see pickups, perhaps sizable, in both the House and the Senate and a better than even shot at the presidency. But that alone won't move the country nor the party forward.

So, despite continued optimism for 2008, I fear 2010 and 2012. Especially if we wake up on third base on January 20, 2009 convinced that we hit a triple. That's why sites like OpenLeft, which have worked so hard to change the debate and put tireless effort and thought into much more than the presidential campaign and election year politics, are so important. I'm deeply troubled that an idea shop such as (George Lakoff's) Rockridge Institute is closing up shop when tens of millions of dollars are going into what are mostly brute force efforts... and here we are not much farther along than we were two years ago.

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by: randy g @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 00:52:53 AM CDT

MS-1 and counting (0.00 / 0)

Democrats "won" the party primaries in MS-1 by amasssing about 35,000 votes to about 32,000 for the Republicans.  This number is similar with hundreds of votes for the non-running Democrat and the Green preventing a straight out victory.  Here, once again, Childers was the top vote-getter.

FWIW, Democrats currently hold half a dozen seats worse than an R+10 (but no R+10) including Gene Taylor's MS-4, the district with the highest PVI in the state (R+16).  The others are MO-4, ND-At Large, TX-22, UT-2, and Chet Edwards TX-17 (R+18).  I don't see SD on my list but I'm sure it belongs there.  Republicans most D district: DE (+7).

MS-1 voting drew over 100 comments at Swing State Project.  That's a very big number there.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:56:25 AM CDT

true and false (0.00 / 0)

"And then macro factors, the economy and Iraq"

This is very true and should insure the election of a Democrat this November.

"and McCain's general insanity and old crazy man persona is going to hurt him badly"

This is a lazy self delusional coomment.

Barrack Obama cannot write off the 50,000,000 white voters over 60 and be elected president....

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by: bluesmoke @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 07:32:03 AM CDT

What's That SUPPOSED To Mean??? (4.00 / 1)

McCain is, in effect, talking about taking away their Medicare.  Obama is not.  Just who, exactly is writing them off?

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:05:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McSane wins, I'm moving to New Zealand. (0.00 / 0)

And I hate Marmite, so that's saying something. Seriously, with the state this country has been brought to in eight years of GOP rule, the mere fact that Grandpa Munster is polling over 20% is a sad reflection on this country. If he actually wins the GE, it will be the final proof that this country is too stupid to live.

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by: Hoooey @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:09:37 PM CDT