Updated Primary Results Maps

by: dreaminonempty

Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:34


Another primary come and gone - and still the race goes on.  Here's the county-by-county map of yesterday's results:

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We see pretty good continuity across state borders, and, again, urban and collegiate islands where Obama has greater support.  The patterns we have seen across the country stayed pretty much the same in Pennsylvania - there certainly were some improvements for Obama according to the exit polls, but no changes on the order of highly educated whites suddenly favoring Clinton by 20 points.  This, of course, is why Poblano was able to use various demographic and electoral variables to predict the outcome of the PA primary within a couple points.

Nationwide maps below the fold.

dreaminonempty :: Updated Primary Results Maps
Updates and review of the primary season thus far:

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From left to right, state results, county results, county cartogram (weighted by population), and results from Democrats abroad.

Notes:  Michigan county results are estimated from county results for Clinton and Nobody and exit polls, Texas county results are from the primary, Kansas results are shown by State Senate district, and Nebraska results are shown by House district.

Cross posted at DailyKos.


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West Virginia (0.00 / 0)
Anybody care to guess who's gonna win WV?  :)

or Kentucky? (4.00 / 1)
Based on this proximity analysis, Indiana should be interesting, bordering parts of Ohio that were strong for HRC, while IL and Wisconsin that voted heavily for Obama.  

[ Parent ]
Yup. (0.00 / 0)
Kentucky is definitely friendly territory for Clinton as well.  As far as Indiana, Southern Indiana has some similarities with Kentucky, and NW Indiana is basically part of Chicagoland, so it will be the more interesting contest to watch, I think.

[ Parent ]
Home state (0.00 / 0)
But will that home state bias cross the Illinois border?

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
Probably (0.00 / 0)
The question is to what extent.  Gary and environs share media markets and sports team loyalties with Chicago, and Chicago is definitely a major influence, but they are also have their own identities and, after all, Obama is not the Senator from Indiana.

[ Parent ]
It looks like... (4.00 / 1)
OR, SD, MT, NC are going Obama. WV, and KY are Clinton territory, and IN will be the last competitive state.

There's the caucus factor. (4.00 / 1)
Obama does do better in caucus states, and (I think) OR, MT, and SD are all primaries.  So we wouldn't expect him do quite as well in those states as in the surrounding caucus states that have already held their contests.  Nonetheless, I think it's pretty likely he'll win big in those three states.

[ Parent ]
Not sure about that (0.00 / 0)
Obama did just as well in the primaries in those regions as he did in the caucuses...see Utah and Wisconsin.

[ Parent ]
Obama has (0.00 / 0)
a ten to twenty point lead in NC and a ten point lead in Oregon.  Those state's combined population are about the same as Indiana, Kentucky, W. Virginia combined.  It looks like a draw from here on out.  The only way Clinton can win is if she figures out a way to convince people that up is down.  I suspect the Clinton camp will highlight Indiana as a state that Obama must win, but why weren't Wisconsin and Virginia and Maryland and Minnesota and Missouri and Colorado and Washington and on and on and on must win states for Clinton?  Fatigue has set in.  Clinton ran a good race for the most part.  Obama ran a good race for the most part.  Obama wins unless Clinton takes two really must win states: North Carolina and Oregon.  Otherwise, turn out the lights, the party's over.

Must-win (0.00 / 0)
I suspect the Clinton camp will highlight Indiana as a state that Obama must win

I think you're right, but who is she to tell the frontrunner what state he needs to win? I think the burden is on her to win more states - outside of states she where she holds a natural advantage. Unless she can pull an upset - like Oregon or NC - I don't see why anyone (Supers included) would be impressed with her simply winning states she is poised to win.

Besides, it doesn't get much redder than Indiana. I would almost be happier if they both stayed away, lest they start running to the right and trying to out-conservative each other to win one of the least competitive states in the nation.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra


[ Parent ]
Your forgot Pol... erm, Puerto Rico. (4.00 / 1)
I'm waiting for the conference call where Wolfson says Puerto Rico is a must win for Obama; if he can't carry Puerto Rico in the primary, how could he win it in the general election?

I would agree that Indiana is a must-win state, if we complete the sentence:  Obama must win Indiana in order to change the media narrative, shut down Clinton, and prod the supers off the fence.  But if he doesn't win it, we have the status quo: Obama still has the numbers, we just have a messy path in front of us.


[ Parent ]
Great Dems Abroad Map! (0.00 / 0)
Very cool.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

More (0.00 / 0)
Here in an old diary.  Different color scheme - blue/green instead of blue/yellow.

[ Parent ]
Poblano's data (0.00 / 0)
My quick speed read of Poblano's data does not bode well for the general no matter who is the Democratic nominee.

It looks like the same voters that gave us all Dubya & Darth will once again vote against their personal interests.

You can only take a horse to the water. You can't make it drink. Unfortunately we are on the same boat as these folks and may have to go down with the ship.


I'm not sure about that. (0.00 / 0)
A lot of the apparent poor results for Dems in GE polls is probably from the 20-30% of Dems saying they won't vote for Clinton or Obama because of the bitterness of the primary.  I'll bet a lot of that goes away once the primaries are over and people are faced with '100 years more war in Iraq' McCain.

[ Parent ]
Obama has more ways to win (0.00 / 0)
Poblano's maps and numbers show that Obama only needs 2 or 4 out of 6  or 8 swing states to win. In particular, his Western strength could be a map-changer for future elections. Virginia may also swing Obama's way. That gives him a lot of paths to the winning the electoral votes.

Clinton finds quite a few of Obama's swing states out of reach, especially in the West, meaning she really has to win two of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Sounds like 2000 and 2004 all over again.

In either case, we are 200 days out, so things will change as we get closer.


[ Parent ]
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