After spending a lot of time thinking about this over the past few days, I have decided that the only accruate way to count delegates is to present two separate counts: the Obama campaign count, and the Clinton campaign count. Ultimately, because this is a political process rather than an objective, mathematical one, the only accurate counts are the ones claimed by both campaigns. And so, here are the two counts.
Obama Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,494 |
1,333 |
18 |
408 |
1,627 |
| Super |
234 |
256 |
0 |
304 |
-- |
| MI + FL |
184 |
184 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
| Total |
1,912 |
1,773 |
18 |
712 |
2,208 |
The pledged delegate totals are taken from the results center on the Obama campaign website. The superdelegate totals are taken from Democratic Convention Watch, although I have asked the Obama campaign if it will provide a superdelegate total of its own. The Florida and Michigan totals are based on a 50-50 split of the two states, as proposed by the Obama campaign. I have also asked the Obama campaign for more clarity on exactly what it is proposing in Michigan and Florida.
Clinton Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,491 |
1,336 |
18 |
408 |
1,627 |
| Super |
234 |
256 |
0 |
304 |
-- |
| MI + FL |
103 |
167 |
18 |
80 |
NA |
| Total |
1,828 |
1,759 |
36 |
792 |
2,208 |
The pledged delegate totals are taken from Green Papers, although I have asked the Clinton campaign if they intend to publish a public delegate total of their own. The superdelegate totals are taken from Democratic Convention Watch, although I have asked the Clinton campaign if it will provide a superdelegate total of its own. Considering the Clinton campaign's argument that Michigan and Florida should be seated as is, delegate totals from the two states are based on the result of the nullified Florida primary (105C-67O-13E), the Michigan district conventions (47C-31O-5E), and current superdelegate endorsements from the two states. The 80 "remaining" delegates come from the 14 Florida superdelegates, 21 Michigan superdelegates, and 45 Michigan pledged delegates are still to be determined according to this argument.
***
So, we now have two competing delegate totals. The Obama total should be taken as useful indication of when the Obama campaign will declare victory, while the Clinton campaign total should be taken as a good indicator of whether they think a convention challenge will have any success. If the Clinton campaign can't win even according to its own delegate argument, then it is implicitly stating it can't win the nomination even if it doesn't say so in public. By the same token, if Obama has not reached 2,208 according to its own arguments, then it is implicitly admitting that the nomination is not yet warpped up.
It is important to note both that neither delegate total is the "real" total, and that there is no "real" total. There is no objective delegate math, since the credentialing of delegates is controlled by the two campaigns in a political process on the credentials committee, and since delegates are able to switch allegiances if they so desire (though extremely few, will actually do so). What will happen is that both campaigns will fight to make their respective delegate totals reality, and more than likely the outcome will end up somewhere in between. However, Obama not only leads in both delegate totals, but he will also have more political power to make his delegate total a reality, given that he will hold a plurality on the credentials committee, and probably a majority (but at least a plurality) of unchallenged delegates on the convention floor. The situation does not look very good for Clinton at all but, even according to the Obama campaign's own count, he is still 296 delegates short of the nomination. |
