Let's hope (0.00 / 0)

McCain really does have a ceiling of 45% (A theory I saw mentioned second-hand).  We saw in PA how Obama faced that situation in the polls and the final results.  

The Pew post on voter affiliations is very promising as well -- the blogosphere has been talking about the great numbers for the youngest voters, but I'm impressed that GenX/Late boomers have finally switched over to a Democratic advantage.  Democrats now lead in all age groups.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:58:34 AM CDT

The numbers mean nothing (0.00 / 0)

They're within the margin of error, and more importantly, it's just way too early for them to have any significance. If there was a huge (20%) difference, there would be something worth considering here, but that's never been the case.

Assuming the Dem Party has not permanently broken itself, Obama will beat McCain by double digits. McCain has nothing but a fragile image to work with; it won't stand up to a real campaign. I think the only possible threat to a Dem win might be if Clinton is nominated in a way that so enrages Obama supporters that they can't bring themselves to vote for her in the general. But Obama does have to get his act back together and take it to the next level. I have no doubt that he will.

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by: DaveW @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:05:46 PM CDT

Vice President (0.00 / 0)

Yes, things are looking up for Democrats and for Obama.  However, Obama continues to have a problem relating to the white working class.  Perhaps he can win without their support but I would rather have their support to help sew up the deal.  

Obama needs to select a VP candidate that really relates to this segment of our party.  My first choice would  be Dick Gephardt.   When I think of unions, blue collar, and white working class I don't think anyone has a better connection with them than Gephardt.  

Of course, Gephardt has been out of the loop for a while and may not be interested.  He is 67 years old.   The second choice would be Sherrod Brown.  Brown has a great looking resume and he would virtually guarantee Ohio.  

   

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by: richgreer @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:06:50 PM CDT

Pardon me. These are good numbers? (0.00 / 0)

They are statisically tied no matter how much you dice and slice them. Suggest that you sit back rest a spell. There are six months left to go. Rememer Dean.

Clinton in '08. Or give Carter a 2nd term. Vote for Obama!

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by: Joliepoint @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 13:26:35 PM CDT

Yes, good numbers (0.00 / 0)

The narrative for weeks has been "Democrats divided". If we're still tied when our primary candidates are being hit with negative attacks from McCain, the media and each other, then things don't look too bad for November.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 14:06:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

New polls present a different picture for IN, NC (0.00 / 0)

In addition to the PPP and SUSA polls, that show Clinton 6 and 8 points ahead in Indiana, you have the most recent SUSA poll of North Carolina, showing Obama only 5 points ahead of Clinton.

It now seems possible, that there will be no gain in delegates from the contests on May 6th, for Obama.

As well, with the other primaries coming up, it seems very possible that Clinton will win big, especially giving the driving - again and again by the media - of the Wright story.

I would note - this story is unfair to Obama, clearly, and McCain is not being held to the same standard.

But this story - as played as it has been - may easily shift votes as well, in Oregon, Montana, South Dakota.

Which means that, the possibility exists that Obama will back  into the nomination.  The nomination will still be his, given his lead.  You can't pick Clinton, given that Obama would have won, still by over a hundred pledged delegates.

But it really is the worst of all possible worlds, in a sense.  A very damaged Obama, now defined by EXACTLY what he is campaigning against - division into resentments.  

Or Clinton, who is the antithesis of the 50 state strategy, and has baggage of her own - and who knows what new controversy will be generated about Bill Clinton, and the speaking and touring he has done in the last 5 years.

I am not a happy man right now.

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by: JC @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 14:07:21 PM CDT

thumbs up (0.00 / 0)

i'm digging the optimism

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by: dave marley @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 16:09:19 PM CDT

Super Delegates Now Matter Even More…Be Heard Through www.LobbyDelegates.com (0.00 / 0)

If you think these Party big-shots known as Super Delegates should listen to rank-and-file Democrats, go to www.LobbyDelegates.com.  This independent website, launched by the nonprofit StateDemocracy Foundation, is the only 1-Stop portal where grassroots Democrats can lobby ALL their state's Super Delegates to support Obama or Clinton, or even to stay uncommitted.

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by: PowerToPeople @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 00:23:00 AM CDT