Is Clinton Outworking Obama?

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 16:15


Before the February 19th Wisconsin primary, Barack Obama had made 17 campaign appearances in the state, while Hillary Clinton had only made 7. Since that time, however, the Clintons have held twice as many campaign events in primary states as the Obamas. According to the Washington Post's Campaign Tracker (click here for Clinton and here for Obama), the differences are stark:

Candidate Events In March 4 through May 6 primary states

  • Ohio: Clinton 46-29 Obama
  • Rhode Island: Clinton 2-2 Obama
  • Texas: Clinton 60-37 Obama
  • Vermont: None
  • Wyoming: Obama 7-5 Clinton
  • Mississippi: Clinton 11-3 Obama
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton 77-38 Obama
  • Indiana: Clinton 56-23 Obama
  • North Carolina: Clinton 48-19 Obama

While Obama is heavily outspending Clinton on paid media, the Clinton campaign is holding far more events on the ground. The differences in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina are particularly stark, with Clinton holding 181 campaign events in those three states, compared to 80 events for Obama. And the gap appears to keep getting larger. This is important for several reasons:

  • It helps Clinton's image as the candidate for "working people."
  • It reinforces the notion that campaigning on the ground still matters, and it isn't all about television ads. C
  • Smaller might be better. While Obama's large rallies are impressive, almost all campaign events draw significant local media coverage. There is a point where the size of the crowd does not matter quite as much in terms of news coverage, especially if the candidate with smaller crowds is hlding so many more campaign events.  
  • Clearly, Bill Clinton is much more of an asset to the Clinton campaign than he is given credit for, since more than half of this advantage comes entirely from his non-stop campaigning.
  • It makes a mockery of the notion that Clinton should drop out, and also hurts Obama's perception as the presumptive nominee. If he is the presumptive nominee, then why do the Clintons seemingly have so much more energy?

Stats like these make me wonder if Obama's massive activist corps seems to be working harder than Obama. As an Obama supporter, I have to say that I am not in the least bit happy with these numbers. If he wants to put Clinton away, the campaign needs to start holding a lot more events in upcoming primary states.

Note: Hillary Clinton herself has more events than Barack Obama himself. It is not all Bill Clinton, and some of the Obama events are Michelle Obama. Hillary Clinton is doing more events than OBama in key states. If you think that  ins't a problemn, fine. If you think that is a problem, get annoyed at the Obama campaign, not me.

Chris Bowers :: Is Clinton Outworking Obama?

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What are the #s head to head between Barack and Hillary? (4.00 / 1)
As you referenced in the post, Bill has a lot more time not being a parent to two small children, and is probably a huge factor in the numbers you cited.

That said, Obama's PA bus tour is the time when his numbers improved there, and that should be done again in both states this week.

John McCain won't insure children


Do #s include Chelsea too (4.00 / 3)
Having a smart 30 year old daughter, rather than two daughters under age 10 helps too.

It sure seemed to help today in Puerto Rico.

John McCain won't insure children


[ Parent ]
Numbers don't inclue Chelsea (0.00 / 0)
But they do include Bill and Michelle.

It would be a lot of work to find out the exact numbers of just Hillary vs. Barack--like several hours worth. I might look into it to get those numbers, but a quick search seems to indicate that Hillary has about a 33% lead in the head to head.  


[ Parent ]
If 33% is true (0.00 / 0)
then that's inexcusable for Obama.

John McCain won't insure children

[ Parent ]
As you noted, Chris... (0.00 / 0)
Bill Clinton is doing an insane amount of events. It's quite unfair to expect Obama to match both him and Hillary...the fact that he's done as well as he has, basically having to run against 3 people at the same time (Hillary, Bill, and John McCain), speaks to how strong his campaign is at the grassroots level - where it matters the most. The Obama campaign is much better about organizing on the ground, whereas Clinton relies heavily on more impersonal phonebanking.

He's also had to run against... (0.00 / 0)
...the right wing noise machine, the GOP as a whole, the Canadian government, his former pastor...  Next thing you know, the ambassador from Brussels will be coming after him!

The fact that he's still standing is a true testament to his character!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
hate week continuuuuuuuues (0.00 / 0)
do we know if these count Bill Clinton events? if so thats just not a fair count. I think you need to figure out if these really are all HRC events before you can charge Obama is not working as hard as his volunteers. If these do not include Bill Clinton events then she is definitely working her tail off - credit to her.

Btw - Obama has been doing small events for weeks, not large ones. I think that started in Ohio and Texas.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare


oh and Chelsea too! (0.00 / 0)
she's doing her own events so its really like 3 on 1. But whose really counting ever since Barack went on Fox News and sold out humanity.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
Michelle & Barack Have Young Children (4.00 / 1)
Come on man, it's really not that cool of you to criticize the Obamas over this. Bill is out doing 3 or 4 different events a day sometimes. Michelle does her part, but keep in mind she and Barack are raising two young daughters. Frankly I would be surprised, not to mention disappointed in her as a parent, if she were able to keep pace with Bill's stumping. I'm sure Barack is more than keeping up with Hillary, but he's not two people.

Obama has changed his campaign events. (0.00 / 0)
He's been doing many smaller townhall meetings lately. I just watched one with Barack and Michelle on cnn.com. Very intimate setting, good questions by the audience. The interaction between them was great. But Michelle cannot campaign non-stop with two small children. It's basically Barack by himself most of the time. There are 3 Clintons campaigning 24/7. You can't really compare.

Its 2 against 1 and we are still winning! nt (0.00 / 0)


Uhh.. no (0.00 / 0)
Obama has been losing for weeks.

Excuses like the daughters don't account for the fact that Bill and Hill can put in insane workdays, and they have been campaigning together since they married 30 years ago.  They knew as a family what they were in for and they were ready.

Truth is, Michelle is just not as well cut out for the role of campaigner as Bill is.

Bill has been charming and winning audiences in state after state; appearance after appearance he talks directly to Hillary's strengths.

Michelle talks to Obama's perceived weaknesses:  Patriotism and elitism.

She has killed him with her comments about not being proud of America, and comes off a bit haughty and bossy on the TV appearances I've seen.  


[ Parent ]
This is not a valid criticism (4.00 / 2)
I think it is deeply unfair to criticize the Obamas for doing fewer events when, unlike the Clintons, they have two small children at home.  Do we really expect Michelle Obama to drop her two girls and hit the trail like Bill Clinton?  

I'm a father of two toddlers, I battle every freaking day with the work/life balance, and I have an enormous amount of respect for the way the Obamas have managed their time, even if that means less time on the trail.  It's the kind of daily struggle the Clintons have not faced in many years, and it brings Obama closer to the reality that working families like mine face.  In other words, if Hillary is working harder right now, and I don't agree that she is, it is only because she can.

Sorry, but this one hit a nerve.


I agree with others about Bill Clinton... (4.00 / 1)
Bill Clinton is a former president who's been campaigning relentlessly for his wife.  While Michelle Obama is great, she's not exactly the draw that a former president is.

Not only that, I take issue with this final comment:
"It makes a mockery of the notion that Clinton should drop out, and also hurts Obama's perception as the presumptive nominee. If he is the presumptive nominee, then why do the Clintons seemingly have so much more energy?"

Why?  Because they have no choice when their basically up against impossible odds.  Since Obama is almost guaranteed to be the nominee, if Hillary wants to have any chance of competing, she had better be trying to hold as many campaign events as humanly possible.

Now, that's not to say that Obama shouldn't be holding more events... perhaps he should (although I feel like his schedule is hard to come by, and he actually ends up having more events than specified on, say, Halperin's The Page), but if there's a reason why Clinton has been holding more, it's because, quite simply, she's desperate.


Your commenters have already raked you over the coals, (0.00 / 0)
but come on Chris, what were you thinking?

If you want to defend your point, post the Hillary vs Barack head to head numbers, and leave Bill and Michelle out of it.  You may still have a valid point here, but Bill and Michelle are so wildly uncomparable figures that I'm shocked you would even consider making the argument you just did.


Then maybe Obama should wait (0.00 / 0)
until his children are 30 before he runs for President.

Numbers are inaccurate, too (4.00 / 2)
On April 30, Clinton is listed as appearing simultaneously in both Whiteville and Lumberton, NC, at 3:30 PM.  On April 12, she held two rallies in Wilson, NC, at 11:30.  Wow!  

Who can compete with a candidate who can not only appear in two places at once, but also twice in the same place at the same time?  We're doomed against that kind of voodoo.


Chris didn't look at the data (0.00 / 0)
he doesn't need to this week to pass judgement.

this is all so beyond stupid. "Obama isn't working hard" what a joke of a criticism. does anyone seriously believe that Obama isn't doing everything he and his aids think are in the best interest of him winning every day? You can disagree about strategy, about where Obama should be spending his time, but you simply can't be serious if you think Obama is not working hard.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare


[ Parent ]
I see Chris has jumped on the wagon (0.00 / 0)
of getting annoyed at Obama for not winning this thing hands down. Panic is setting it. Fear of losing momentum.

Instead taking that fear and putting it into action. People come to blogs to write. (Yes I know this sounds hypocritical as I'm writing on a blog.)

Getting annoyed doesn't help. Action does.


This is how Obama fails to close (0.00 / 0)
Similar things happened before. It's annoying.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

I'll defend the post. (0.00 / 0)
To some degree.   I think the problem is that it feels like Obama is getting lapped by the Clintons, they their campaign is more vital.    The whole Obama camp needs to put more wind in the sails I think.  Obama is fighting on at least 2 fronts, 3 if you count Wright.   So more surrogates have to get in there?  Gergen said as much yesterday.  

I agree Chris (0.00 / 0)
As an Obama supporter, this pisses me off. True, Obama has been a little busy dealing with Wright nonesense, but he needs to get in gear here.

Other appearances (0.00 / 0)
One thing this doesn't capture is how much time Obama and Clinton spend with local TV, local newspapers, soft outlets like Rachael Ray, etc. My hunch is that Obama spends more time on this stuff than Clinton, but it's very hard to gauge.

I also wonder if the fact that Obama himself is expending more time convincing superdelegates than Clinton is is eating into that. But again, no way to gauge it.


RE: Note (0.00 / 0)
I HATE OBAMA!

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Okay... (0.00 / 0)
I guess size does matter.

Obama is up against Hillary, Bill and Chelsea (0.00 / 0)
How can you say he is being outworked?  He alone is campaigning against 3 people. It is one on 3!  Plus he is fighting the media and the Republicans.

who has the most delegates not the most appearances (0.00 / 0)
What the heck is this post about? It almost sounds like one of those dumb Clinton campaign arguments that Hillary should get the nomination because she is leading in some obscure irrelevant statistic like most big states or states with the most electoral votes.

about (0.00 / 0)
I think it's about what's happening now, this week, in the campaign.  If you think the campaign is over, then it's irrelevant.  If the campaign is still going on, for whatever reason, then it is something to think about.  
I do not see anything in it remotely suggestive of the creation of a new metric for supers to consider.

[ Parent ]
fighting hardest where he has the best chance (0.00 / 0)
Maybe Obama spends his most effort in states he knows he can win like Wisconsin and he conserves his strength by not campaigning all out in person in lost causes like Ohio and Pennsylvania?

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