Obama Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,494 |
1,336 |
19 |
404 |
1,627 |
| Super |
255 |
275 |
0 |
266 |
-- |
| MI + FL |
184 |
184 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
| Total |
1,933 |
1,795 |
19 |
670 |
2,208.5 |
The Obama campaign has started to keep a running count of superdelegates on its results page. While it does not provide a list of the superdelegate endorsements, the total is still a useful public service. Also, I can understand why they wouldn't want to list the individual superdelegates, given that any errors could cause real problems from them. At this point, I'm fine that they only provide totals.
Some might object that I am not accurately portraying the position of the Obama campaign on Michigan and Florida. While I list the Obama campaign arguing for a 184-184 split of the 368 delegates from those two states, the results page on the Obama campaign website lists each state as receiving zero delegates. However, this is a contradiction from the Obama campaign, not an error on my part. While the campaign lists each state with zero delegates, it has also stated that it wants to see Michigan and Florida both seated at the convention, but with a 50-50 split of delegates. So, the campaign is arguing for 184-184 in some places, and 0-0 in others. Since we all know that both states will be seated at the convention, I will stick with 184-184 for now.
Clinton Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,490.5 |
1,339.5 |
19 |
404 |
1,627 |
| Super |
253 |
284 |
0 |
313 |
-- |
| Florida |
67 |
105 |
13 |
0 |
NA |
| Michigan |
31 |
47 |
5 |
45 |
NA |
| Total |
1,841.5 |
1,775.5 |
37 |
762 |
2,208.5 |
Clinton has actually picked up a couple of delegates recently, one in Pennsylvania (now projected at 85-73 by Green Papers) and one half in American Samoa (now projected at Clinton 2-1 Obama by Green Papers), for a net of three delegates.
I have also separated out Michigan and Florida in these tables so that they make more sense. The 45 remaining delegates from Michigan will be chosen on May 17th at the state party convention, I believe. At that convention, according to her campaign's count, Clinton will pick up twenty-six more delegates and net at least seven. After that, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will hold a hearing on Michigan and Florida on May 31st. If nothing changes from that meeting, then the Credentials Committee takes over the matter.
Here are the future delegate projections, with the state projections based on current polls:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
This brings us to the following, dueling projections:
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Obama Total |
2,140 |
2,002 |
19 |
211 |
2,208.5 |
| Clinton Total |
2,048.5 |
1,992.5 |
37 |
335 |
2,208.5 |
Clearly, under the Obama count, the nomination campaign is effectively over. Obama is still favored even under the Clinton count, since he would only need 46.9% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number.
Clinton's path to the nomination involves a combination of two rather unlikely steps. First, force a the campaign all the way to the convention by preventing Obama from reaching the magic number under Clinton's most favorable count. This will require both forcing an extremely favorable deal on Michigan and Florida and significantly improving upon her current projected delegate totals in remaining states. Second, it will require her to destroy Obama as a viable general election candidate to such a degree that Obama superdelegates actually start shifting to Clinton. To date, not a single Obama superdelegate has switched to Clinton, so once again this seems extremely unlikely.
The nomination campaign is taking a while, but it certainly seems like Obama is headed to victory, probably sometime in mid-June. |
