Looking only at national polls for the Democratic nomination, it would appear to the casual observer that Barack Obama is going through a rough patch in the presidential campaign. Both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics show Clinton making up an 8-10% gap on Obama, to roughly draw even in national polls. Any off the shelf political pundit, manufactured in abominable environmental and human rights conditions in China, can tell you that this change is due primarily to Obama's supposed elitist and patriotism problems associated with concepts like Rev. Wright and the dreaded arugula leaf. However, the unfortunately high lead content in the analysis produced by these pundits can be damaging to the consumer's political eyesight, as it misses an important fact: Barack Obama is rising in general election polls against John McCain.
Take a look at Pollster.com's national Obama vs. McCain poll trend, and you will see that Obama is rising, and in fact now has the lead for the first time since early March. Much the same can be found at Real Clear Politics's national poll trend, where Obama has his second largest single-day lead against McCain since March 12th. On a state by state basis, Obama is also gaining ground on McCain, moving from a slight electoral deficit to a slight electoral lead over the past week. In terms of favorable ratings, Obama's numbers have stayed within the margin of statistical noise for the past four months, although there might be a statistically significant rise in his unfavorable rating. However, even if there is, an election is a zero sum game with only one winner and one loser. While Obama's unfavorables might have increased, he is still rising relative to John McCain, and that is all that matters.
The extensive focus on the Democratic nomination campaign rather than the general election has obscured an important fact about the state of the race: Obama isn't sagging, but Clinton is surging. Hillary Clinton is performing better against John McCain than she has all year, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Her favroables are higher than they have been in a year, according to every polling outlet. In terms of electoral votes, once again she is doing better against McCain than she has done all year, or possibly ever. This isn't an Obama sag, this is a Clinton surge.
And no, it is not a mix of Obama dropping and Clinton rising. This is because, once again, presidential elections are zero sum games where only one person wins, and no one else takes office. This isn't a congressional campaign where someone runs one year to build up name ID, and then runs again two years later to win. The only consolation prize someone can ever take from losing a presidential election is to become Vice-President, and thus eventually one day become President as a result. However, that has only ever happened twice to losing presidential candidates in the seventy years, LBJ and Bush Sr. So, if we are basically dealing with a zero-sum game, then Obama is not sagging even as Clinton surges. This is because he remains the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Barring a catastrophic polling meltdown in North Carolina, he will continue to be the overwhelming favorite after tonight. Obama's chances to become the next President have not decreased over the last few weeks, and have in fact increased in the last few days.
For Clinton, her surge is impressive, even if it is a little too late. She seems to, at long last, have tapped as deeply into the white working class vote as her husband did in his two successful presidential campaigns in 1992 and 1996. She is now seen as tough and populist, and performs pretty well among Independents. Overall, Hillary Clinton seems to have successfully shed the caricature image of her that conservatives built up over the last sixteen years, or at least successfully performed a judo flip on it. Whereas once she was too tough to be feminine, now she is tough enough to be President. Whereas once she was elitist, now she is populist. Whereas once she was too liberal, now an ideological gap has opened up in the Democratic Party and she is winning the moderates and the conservatives.
But, in a zero sum game where only one person can be the nominee, a quick look at the delegate scenarios indicates that the Clinton surge is too late. Then again, maybe it is not a zero sum game, and perhaps it is enough at this point for her to have secured a position as the next Vice-President. After all, she does appeal to a somewhat different set of voters than Obama, and polls make it clear at this point that she is anything but an electoral liability. As far as the attacks that Clinton and Obama have hurled at each other, what better way to invalidate them and wash that all away by joining on a ticket together? At this point, it might be unavoidable. |
