Once all final numbers are in, an effect estimate would be great (0.00 / 0)

Whether that is 5%, 3%, etc shift to Clinton.  Would be nice to know.

On the other hand, I have no objection for Limbaugh voters to get in the habit of voting Republican - but that 82%, would vote for McCain, doesn't seem like this is going to happen.

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by: JC @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 18:53:48 PM CDT

As of now, in Indiana (0.00 / 0)

The numbers stand at 13% of Clinton voters prefer McCain over Clinton, and 4% of Obama voters prefer McCain over OBama.  That's a shift of 7 points for Clinton and 2 points for Obama in the Clinton/Obama matchup.  

If the final number ends up being 53/47 Clinton, for example, it would have been 51/49 instead without the Limbaugh voters.

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by: dreaminonempty @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 19:13:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

7% of all voters in IN voted for Clinton but will NOT vote for her in November (0.00 / 0)

According to the IN exit polls, about 7.4% of the total number of voters in the Democratic primary voted for Clinton but said that they would not support her against McCain.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
See page one, second question from bottom.  Answers to that question showed that 17% of all voters would support McCain in November if Clinton were the nominee and 9% of all voters would not vote for either in a Clinton-McCain match-up.

Of the 17% who would vote for McCain against Clinton, 41% answered that they had voted for Clinton!! 0.17 x 0.41 = .0697.  Of the 9% who would not vote in a Clinton-McCain matchup, 5% voted for Clinton.  0.09 x 0.05 = 0.0045.

Since 0.0697 + 0.0045 = .0742 this shows a huge contamination of the primary vote, either by racialist white voters who voted against Obama, or by Ditto-heads participating in Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos!!  Total such voters for Clinton = 92,700.

There were also about 2.5% of the total voters who voted for Obama, but said that they would not support Obama against McCain.  (See answers to Obama-McCain match-up question on page 3 of the CNN report on the exit polls - webpage shown above.)  Total such voters for Obama = 30,900.

There are approximately 1,260,000 total voters in Indiana, perhaps more with uncounted absentee ballots, etc.  The ten per cent that voted for a candidate that they will not support in the general election were not legitimate participants in the primary.  

Clinton's current total is 637,389; if we deduct the 92,700 contaminating votes for Clinton, her total is 544,689.

Obama's current total is 615,370; if we deduct the 30,900 contaminating votes for Obama, his total is 584,470.

Clinton's edge in the votes counted is about 22,000, which is about 1.75% margin in the total votes. If we exclude the numbers of contaminating votes for each candidate, Obama leads by almost 40,000 votes in Indiana.  That margin is about 3.5% of the non-contaminating votes.

Excluding the illegitimate votes, Obama won Indiana by 51.75% to 48.25%

Maybe this will be a talking point for the Obama campaign in working on super delegates IF Clinton decides to carry on her campaign in a truculent and negative manner.

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by: hardheaded liberal @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:43:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

look at the question (0.00 / 0)

Note the exit poll question is: who would you vote for if it were between Obama and McCain. So anyone whose preference order is Clinton-McCain-Obama would pick McCain; those aren't necessarily Chaosians.

As I say in the thread above this one, a better guess for Operation Chaos is about 6-7% of all voters.

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by: Chachy @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 19:12:15 PM CDT