The answer to this question is obviously yes, since it will be a crushing media narrative against Clinton that will effectively end the nomination campaign tonight. However, the real answer to the question is no, since a 1% Clinton victory and a 1% Obama victory in Indiana swings only one PLEO delegate, and maybe one or two district-level delegates (or, maybe no district level delegates). The gap between the reality and the media narrative does tell us several things:
The established media was never covering the nomination campaign. The simple fact is that is that the media was never covering the campaign according to the structure and rules of the campaign. The Democratic Presidential nomination campaign is not, and has never been, about "winning" states according to the popular vote of a given state. It is, instead, about winning delegates according to a series of complex rules that are based more on congressional district results and margins of victory than on winning states. They have been covering the wrong concepts all along.
The national polls don't matter. This isn't exactly a news flash, but national polls don't matter in the nomination campaign. Over 90% of the population has already had their chance to vote. The rules for voting vary from state to state, ranging from closed caucuses to open primaries with same day registration. Further, the staggered system means that the country does not all vote at once, so only state polls matter. So, national polls are covering the campaign even worse than the national media is.
The narratives are having little impact. Despite the overwhelming media focus on certain topics, such as Rev. Wright, the truth is that there has not been much movement in the polls over the past few months. Sure, maybe 4-5% here and there, but really 4-5% is extremely small since there is that other 95%-96% of the voting public and that 40-50% that doesn't even vote. In other words, it takes a mountain dropping on a molehill in order to have any impact, and the big stories don't make much of a dent for the vast, vast, vast, majority of the population.
Here is the bottom line: no matter the final popular vote outcome of Indiana, very few delegates will change hands and Obama will remain the overwhelming delegate favorite no matter what happens. This was as true entering tonight as it is right now. That the news media covering the campaign isn't bothering to point this out demonstrates just how detached their coverage, and their metrics, have always been from the actual campaign. In this case, following the idiotic, arbitrary, unrealistic media rules benefits Obama, but overall it means we are still playing by their stupid rules.
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