I know we are supposed to move on from the nomination campaign at this point, but in case there was any lingering doubt Clinton could still win the nomination, the new deal proposed from the Michigan Democratic Party should be an end to it. Every high-level Michigan Democrat now appears to be behind a 69-59 pledged delegate split, plus seating the superdelegates:
Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.(...)
The state party's executive committee voted today to ask the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would shrink Clinton's delegate edge in Michigan from 18 to 10 and allow the state's 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.
The state's Democratic leaders also pushed back the date of the party's State Central Committee meeting from May 17 to June 14 to give the rules committee time to act. The party is to pick 45 pledged delegates and two superdelegates at that meeting. It chose 83 pledged delegates last month at district conventions.
A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.(...)
The 69-59 split was proposed last week by four prominent Michigan Democrats who have been working for months to find a way to get Michigan's delegates seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and DNC member Debbie Dingell.
While this may not be the exact plan that will pass, it is probably pretty close to the exact plan that will pass. Further, because of hte people backing the proposal, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant, and probably be seated based on something similar to the January 29th results. Here is the delegate count under that scenario:
Clinton's Best-Case Delegate Scenario
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,590.5 |
1,426.5 |
19 |
217 |
1,627 |
| Super |
265 |
284.5 |
0 |
300.5 |
-- |
| Florida |
67 |
105 |
13 |
0 |
NA |
| Michigan |
59 |
69 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
| Total |
1,981.5 |
1,885.5 |
32 |
517.5 |
2,208.5 |
Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 96 delegates when the Michigan Party's plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 96 delegates with 549.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon's best case scenario, Obama only needs 227 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.3%, to win the nomination.
Clinton's best-case scenario still overwhelmingly favors Obama. So yes, the outcome of the nomination campaign is now a foregone conclusion.
Update: Yes, Florida probably won't be seated as is, and I probably should not have written that it would be. Still, that is why this is Clinton's best-case scenario. And it ain't very good.
Update 2: The Clinton campaign rejects the proposal, which isn't surprising because it puts her nowhere near the nomination. However, considering its backers, most of whom are Clinton people, I still say that something better than this for Clinton is extremely unlikely. |
