NY-13: Republican Apocalypse Continues

by: Chris Bowers

Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:32


Soon, there won't be any Republicans left:

Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) has acknowledged that he is the father of a 3-year-old daughter with divorcee Laura Fay, the retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who picked him up from an Alexandria, Va., jail last week after he was busted for DWI.

"I have had a relationship with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three year old daughter," the married Fossella said in a prepared statement e-mailed to reporters by consultant Susan Del Percio. "My personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain to the people I love and I am truly sorry."

Ms. Del Percio said Fossella would not personally address the media today.

Fossella and his wife, Mary Pat, have three children.(...)

Fossella was arrested for DWI in Alexandria around 12:15 a.m. last Thursday. He told cops that he was on his way to Grimm Drive, which is where Ms. Fay lives, because his daughter was sick and had to go to the hospital.

Fossella's blood alcohol level was .17, court papers said, more than twice the legal limit of .08 in Virginia. He faces a mandatory five-day jail sentence if convicted of DWI. He could also face a House ethics probe if he remains in office.

There is a lot going on here. First, 0.17 is really, really drunk, as Horse's Ass previously explained about 2006 Washington Republican Senate nominee Mike McGavick, who was also arrested for a 0.17 DWI.

Second, he is going to jail over this. Usually congresspeople don't go to jail while they are sitting in the House. That kind of looks bad.

Third, he had a child with a different woman while he was in Congress and still married to someone else. The way I figure it, people should live anyway they want to. However, this clearly involved a lot of lying to his legal wife and family, and a lot of neglect to his other family.

Fourth, NY-13 is a very purple and winnable seat. It actually has a partisan voting index of D +0.8. After all of this, Republicans probably have a better chance if Fossella resigns than if he stays in office. And, in a year like this, their odds in an open-seat race in a district that is slightly lean-Dem in an even year, are not very good.

The number of house seats that keep showing up for Democrats is remarkable. We should reach at least 250 seats (235 right now), and probably 260. For all intents and purposes, a margin of that size should put progressives in control of the House.

Update: Fossella is co-hosting McCain's NYC fundraiser.  
Chris Bowers :: NY-13: Republican Apocalypse Continues

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NY-13: Republican Apocalypse Continues | 13 comments
VINO Fossella (4.00 / 1)
is how he's now being referred to in some circles, according to one account I read.

Guess he's not a beer guy, either.

But, really, 250-260 seats.  That's way low, from where I sit.  Here's that damn chart again:

260 seats is a gain of 25.  That's the number of battleground seats from Swing State Project a month or so back, with PVI R+3 or less.  But we've been winning open seats with PVI shifts of 5-10 points.  Naturally, open seats are the easiest.  And we're not going to win all those battleground seats.  But we will certainly win some that have much higher GOP PVIs.  So I can't help but feel that 260 should be a floor, rather than a ceiling, for our House expectations this year.

We could easily pick up twice that many seats, given that catastrophic failures have a way of reinforcing one another--unpopular policies, people leaving the party, shitty fundraising, mounting scandals, booming Democratic participation rates--looks like perfect storm time to me.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

It is not good to be married .. (0.00 / 0)
and have your mistress(whom you have a child by) bail your ass outta jail ... Vito is toast with a capital "T"
[ Parent ]
VinoFossella.com (0.00 / 0)
It went live last night and tracks the news that has arisen since Fossella's arrest.  

NY13 Blog
VinoFossella.com

[ Parent ]
Vito is going down (0.00 / 0)
I love that there will be no GOP in NYC

John McCain is dishonest
must be an amazingly expensive district (0.00 / 0)
Imagine the costs of advertising in New York City.  This is a big potential hit to the NRCC, or else they will have to let the local candidate fight on his own.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Rarely any TV ads (0.00 / 0)
Fossella never really did TV ad buys and his democratic candidates never had the money to.  The district relies on the Staten Island Advance for news over the Times, Post or Daily News.  TV buys if any are local cable buys.  It is a strange district in that there seems to be little media saturation.

NY13 Blog
VinoFossella.com

[ Parent ]
He's the only Repub. house member in all of NYC! (0.00 / 0)
Should indeed be very vulnerable.  
Staten Island, Dude! (0.00 / 0)
You know, the Siberia to which Detective Logan was sentenced to for more than a decade.

It's a BIG difference.

But, still, marginally Dem PVI, and boy is that shifting.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Point taken. (0.00 / 0)
But his opponent last time, Stephen Harrison, got 43% of the vote last time and is running again. So things are looking damn rosy for Stephen Harrison.
[ Parent ]
Harrison (4.00 / 1)
has some conservative views. He leans to the right and that would help in the more conservative part of the borough which predominantly white and Catholic. He might have taken the seat two years ago if the DCCC had thrown him some money and some advertising. Then Iraq War was the big issue, now it is the economy and the war and health care. Foreclosures are up 101% on SI in the last quarter which is very bad news for a community that is mostly home owners who are seeing their investment dwindle.

"By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes" Wm. Shakespeare, "Macbeth"
[ Parent ]
3/29 R seats left (0.00 / 0)
After 2008. My bet is we pick up 2/3 in terms of Reynolds, Walsh, Kuhl, Fossella. Wouldn't it be hot to be one of a handful of states with entirely Democratic delegations?

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Okay (0.00 / 0)
I have to say this stuff really makes me feel good about our chances in November.  
Staten Island is a conundrum (4.00 / 1)
The Island is divided physically and demographically by the SI Expressway (I-278). The northern half is more ethnically diverse, liberal(progressive, if you prefer), middle and low income working class (with a couple of small pockets of affluent neighborhoods), has a higher crime rate and, historically has voted Democratic. The southern shore is predominantly white, middle to upper income, mostly single and two family homes with some townhouse, condominiums and garden apartment developments, 3 NYC Housing project with very tight residency requirements. The crime rate is lower but the common denominator is traffic, public transportation, pollution, health care and city services. There are only 3 hospitals, none are public and all are having difficulties with finances and over crowded E.D.'s. There are more public parks on SI than any other borough (% wise) and the fewest park employees, the exception is Gateway National Park which appears to be better managed and staffed. None of these issues have been addressed on a national level by Mr. Fossella. His current problems aside, he was very vulnerable in the last election. His Democratic opponent made significant headway in unseating Vito despite being out spent and the support of a very Republican newspaper, the SI Advance.
The DCCC needs to get behind a candidate. i do not agree with Mr. Harrison on all issues, such as abortion (he leans pro-life) but he certainly stands a good chance of defeating either Mr. Fossella or his replacement on the ticket.

"By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes" Wm. Shakespeare, "Macbeth"
NY-13: Republican Apocalypse Continues | 13 comments
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