May 13th Election Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue May 13, 2008 at 18:29


( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

West Virginia: 47% reporting, 28 delegates at stake
Clinton: 65% (16 delegates)
Obama: 28% (6 delegates)
Clinton +63,300 votes

Mississippi-01: 80% reporting
Childers (D): 51%
Davis (R): 49%
Childers +1,104 votes

Update 9--Childers Wins MS-01: The AP and MSNBC just called MS-01 for Childers. That's pretty cool. We are going to win everywhere in November. Landslide city.

Update 8--Very close in Mississippi: Republican Davis closes to only 700 votes, but most of the remaining counties are Democratic, especially the 85%+ Dem county of Prentiss.

Update 7--Narrow Growing Democratic lead in MS-01: Comparing the primary and general election results in the four six ten multi-precinct counties where 90% or more precincts have returns, Democrat Childers is doing better in three of the four four of the six seven of the nine seven of ten. That is a pretty good sign, though not enough to call the race yet. Almost, however.

Update 6--Kleebn wins Nebraska Senate primary: Even though only 5% is reporting, Scott Kleeb is ahead by an absurd amount in the Nebraska Senate primary. Pretty easy to call an election when someone is ahead by 50%. I won't update this one anymore.

Update 5--McCain still only at 76%: McCain is only at 76% in West Virginia, which is pretty much what he did in Indiana. Kind of funny that about one-quarter of the Republican electorate is still voting against McCain, more than three months after Super Tuesday. Pretty funny.

Update 4--Deceptive margin in MS-01: Childers is well ahead in MS-01 right now, but SSP reports that he is running about even with his results from the primary. So, it still looks like it will be a very close result in MS-01.

Update 3--Tee vee watching is painful: Election nights are the only nights I watch tee vee news. Its pretty painful, as TPM shows, but I did learn that Obama is wearing a flag pin now. I guess the key is just to attack him from the right.

Update 2--Other Dems Still on Ballot: The reason the numbers don't add up to 100% in West Virginia is because the other Democrats are still on the ballot. In particular, Edwards is probably getting a decent percent, and would have been strong here if he was still in the campaign.

Update--Clinton Wins West Virginia: Everyone calls West Virginia for Clinton. No surprise. Let's see what the various final margins will be. Exit poll can be found here. Quick extrapolation from the gender numbers indicates 65%--32%.
Chris Bowers :: May 13th Election Results Thread

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May 13th Election Results Thread | 65 comments
Sorry, confused now (0.00 / 0)
the West Virginia Democratic primary (polls close at 6:30 p.m. eastern)... West Virginia: Polls close at 7:30 p.m

Sorry, just want to be clear... is this a typo, or do you have different time zones reprsented here?

I do believe it is 6:40 eastern right this moment?

Typo (4.00 / 1)
7:30 is correct. Will fix.  
[ Parent ]
This is the first primary (0.00 / 0)
this election season that, rightly or wrongly, I have no concern about its outcome.  Before you bust a blood vessel about this I think it would be instructive to remind you that despite the inherent value of counting the votes of WV voters (which, I respect) we also must recognize that the outcome will not/does not change the results of the democratic primary.  This is the first election this primary season that I have no care regarding its results.

Ok.  Blast me if you will--I know what I have written can be twisted around any which way, and I'm fine with that.  

huh? (4.00 / 1)
Do you expect someone to blast you and twist your words around? Is that something you expect on this site, or are you projecting your feelings from elsewhere?
[ Parent ]
To be fair (4.00 / 1)
We have had a handful of active users in the comments section recently who've brought with them the nostalgia of the pre-strike era on the Daily Kos.
[ Parent ]
Oh it changes things alright (0.00 / 1)
It shows once again that Obama cannot win the general election without the voters he continues to lose to Clinton.

So far he has lost the White vote in about 12 states or so, all east of the Mississippi including Florida - a crown jewel of any general election.

Don't think Supers will not be taking notice of that. And don't think State delegations who want to win the WH and can change their votes at the convention are not noticing that either.

And don't think voters or Supers or dedicated delegates did not notice all the Republican hugging and Republican praising Obama did on Fox News.

[ Parent ]
12 states (4.00 / 1)
How many of those 12 states would Clinton have a realistic chance of winning against McCain?

How many of those 12 states would Obama have a realistic chance of winning against McCain?

[ Parent ]
Go do your homework (0.00 / 1)
Without looking at those specific states, and instead looking at the available electoral projection maps that show Clinton getting significantly more electoral b=votes than Obama I'd give an educated guess that Clinton would would more of the states in question. After all she did win the states in the primaries and by significant margins in some and with significant margins with White voters in all of those states.
[ Parent ]
you made the claim (0.00 / 0)
... so its up to you to back it up.

and instead looking at the available electoral projection maps that show Clinton getting significantly more electoral b=votes than Obama

What maps are those? The ones I've seen show Obama with 280 electoral votes vs. 276 for Clinton.

[ Parent ]
BTW (0.00 / 0)
CNN exit polls show Clinton winning White Democrats

71% to 26%.

Nah! Obama has no problem whit White voters east of the Mississippi.

[ Parent ]
FYI (4.00 / 5)
[ Parent ]
See? You should have waited a little longer N/T (4.00 / 4)

[ Parent ]
Well I would remind you (0.00 / 1)
that in the last Presidential election around 122 million people voted and in 2006 about 81 million people voted. that is a difference of about 50% more people in a Presidential election. You can't fairly compare Presidential years to off years.

Given that Whites are still the majority in the US it stands to reason that more of them makeup the 50% more people in a Presidential election.

Write-off that 50% at your own peril.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, you are right (4.00 / 1)
You can't compare 2006 and 2004. Because in 2006, the electorate was 79% white, and in 2004 it was 77% white. So, the electorate got whiter, Democrats still lost whites, and yet they pulled out the biggest electoral victory since 1984.

You are just wrong on this one. Your stats suck.

[ Parent ]
Thank you (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Mass Hallucination (0.00 / 0)
Hillary clinched months ago, but Obamamania is such a potent drug that his fans still believe he's winning.

(Just kidding!)

[ Parent ]
The Reality-Based Community Misses You (0.00 / 0)
It's over, okay?  Everyone knows how the rest of this is going to play out, the SD's are moving to Obama, and around June 6th it will be a done deal, most of Hillary's SD's will flip after MT and SD make the last actual votes of the primary.

Hillary's win scenario was always a long shot, but it's passed from long shot to lottery ticket.  It would take a "red mist" scenario to make her the nominee now.  Even Jerome at MyDD and Big Tent Democrat at TalkLeft are showing they're ready to climb down and accept the facts.  Next week Obama will win Oregon (including working-class whites) and lose Kentucky by about as much as WV.  On 5-31 the Rules committee will accept the MI compromise of 59-69, and probably recommend seating FL at half votes.  The next day Obama will lose PR, two days later he'll win SD and MT.  By that Friday, 6-6, he'll gain 150-200 supers, including a lot previously declared for Hillary.

It's time to take off your game face and start figuring how to help Obama beat McCain.

[ Parent ]
Richardson apparently has a goatee now (0.00 / 0)
I looks great, IMO.  Makes me feel confident in my vice presidential straw poll vote
Exit poll male/female split says 65-35 (4.00 / 1)
What did I predict? 65-35. Could have been worse.
Gas Tax (0.00 / 1)
Interesting stat form the CNN exit polls:

Suspending Federal Gas Tax During Summer

Good Idea - 63%

Bad Idea - 34%

Seems that people generally disagree with the blog position on the gas tax. Oh well.

[ Parent ]
It's not the "blog position" (4.00 / 1)
It's the position of EVERY major economist in the country. Nice attempt at a popular appeal fallacy, but it's just that, a logical fallacy, and if you actually used logic (which you admittedly claim not to), you would realize that any person with a passing grade in Econ 101 knows the idea is bunk. Just because a lot of people disagree doesn't make it wrong, anymore than a poll saying 2+2=5 wouldn't make that true either.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Phew... (4.00 / 3)
Thank God I'm here. Never made this comment before on this site, but one of the reasons I joined MYDD four years ago was Chris Bowers great analysis. And now Jerome Armstrong's front page diary is a three line hit job comparing Obama to George W Bush. What is going on there...

OK. End of outrage. At what level does Obama's low ratings really effect the delegate split in WV?

Depends on what the definition of "effect" is (0.00 / 0)
Sorry, I couldn't resist. I haven't looked at the congressional district break-down (if there is more than 1 CD, pardon my ignorance about WV) but I've heard 75-25 is the threshold for extra delegate allocation.
[ Parent ]
My spelling was affected... (0.00 / 0)
...by a brief sojourn in inferno. But the after effects wore off. And now I'm as pedantic as hell to.

Thanks for the info. So Obama's unlikely to go below that threshold statewide I hope.  

[ Parent ]
I wasn't picking on your spelling (0.00 / 0)
Just that a state with a total of 28 delegates does not have a big impact on the overall delegate count.
[ Parent ]
Oops. Then I correct my correction (0.00 / 0)
London time, early in the morning. Have to stick matchsticks on my eyelids to see the computer screen
[ Parent ]
Further clarification (4.00 / 1)
Ok, I have now looked it up.

Working off a baseline of 19-9 with a net delegate win of 10 for Clinton:

There are 3 congressional districts and breaking 75% (relative to the two of them) will flip one delegate from Obama to Clinton. If she does worse than 58.3% in any district, a delegate flips the other way.

Breaking 78.5% will give Clinton an extra at-large delegate. If she does worse than 64.3%, a delegate flips the other way.

I doubted any effect because of the relatively few delegates at stake.

 

[ Parent ]
Am I reading the CBS Exit Polls Correctly? (0.00 / 0)
It seems like 60+ of the African American vote in WV went to Clinton.  Is that what other people understand?  I find those results pretty interesting.
A link would be helpful (0.00 / 0)
Looking at the exit poll, I don't see any black people... and not in a Stephen Colbert way either.
[ Parent ]
If you look beyond the age questons... (0.00 / 0)
they have some stats for AA voters, about 2% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
You're right (4.00 / 1)
Maybe they just said that because they were scared of getting beat up in that WV crowd... you gotta admit, the numbers (and likely the feelings behind them) are pretty strong. I'd look for a reverse Bradley effect in those numbers, though it would be too small to really show up in the results.
[ Parent ]
Media Narrative (4.00 / 1)
Watching the CNN talking heads.  I knew, when we discussed it last week, that they were simply rebooting.  Already we're on "gives Clinton new life" and "Obama does poorly with working class" and so on and so forth.  Le sigh.
CNN's always shilled for Hillary (4.00 / 2)
  Why waste rods and cones on their "coverage"?  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn
[ Parent ]
"Obama is a flip-flopper" (0.00 / 0)
"He's been wearing a flag pin!!!"

Someone kill me now.

[ Parent ]
Chill (0.00 / 0)
  If the media couldn't kill Obama's candidacy with the 24/7 Wrightfest the week before NC and IN, that's a pretty good indication that they're nowhere near as influential as they think they are.

 Barack will be fine.

 And I am usually NOT an optimist.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Agreed (0.00 / 0)
It's just that the stupid... it BURNS.
[ Parent ]
Jerome is a sore loser (4.00 / 1)
and I have to refrain from ever visiting that site ever again.  
I'm a few months ahead of you (0.00 / 0)
I stopped visiting the site a few months ago and am now lurking there from time to time, just to see if the most ardent Clinton supporters (read Obama bashers) are coming around. There were a few good signs immediately after last Tuesday but it's back to what it was before, now.
[ Parent ]
clinton supporter sets high expections (0.00 / 0)
West Virginia State Senate majority leader Harry Truman Chafin, speaking at a Clinton campaign rally yesterday:

"You think this crowd's noisy. Just wait til we win like 80-20," he said. "We've got to give her a vote tomorrow of 80-20 or 90-10. Let's get the national media's attention."

So, does Clinton get the media's attention with 65%?

Yes (4.00 / 1)
The media is easily distracted by shiny objects.
[ Parent ]
Less than 100% (0.00 / 0)
As of this instant, you say:

2% reporting, Clinton: 63%, Obama: 30%

CNN says:

3% reporting, Clinton: 58% Obama: 36%

63% + 30% = 93%
58% + 36% = 94%

What's up with the other 6-7%? I don't remember there being an uncommitted/other vote that large since way earlier in the primary season.

Is it just me, or is that 6-7% indeed a relatively large number...?

Other candidates still on ballot (0.00 / 0)
Particularly Edwards, who would have been strong here.  
[ Parent ]
I am reminded... (0.00 / 0)
  ...of Howard Dean's thundering victory in Vermont in 2004.

 Hillary will get one last positive media cycle -- this is the last time a state friendly to her will have an election night to itself. Then reality will set in for good.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

Puerto Rico (0.00 / 0)
PR votes on 6-1.  She'll probably win there, then two days later she'll lose SD and MT.  Then it's all over.  I expect by that weekend, many of her supers and nearly all the undeclareds will be in the Obama column.
[ Parent ]
Other (0.00 / 0)
So, according to Politico, "Other" is at nearly 6% right now (3% of results). I'm assuming this is the all-important segrement of the West Virginia Democratic party that is both racist and sexist.

Also, I think this is the first time Obama has won the expectations game, even if only because they were set so, so low by everyone. I find myself looking at the cuurent 36-O/58-C results and thinking that I would be pretty satisfied if he kept the margins that close.

Thank you, Bill Clinton and crazy WV Democratic party Hillary shill whose name I can't remember for your crazy 80/20 and 90/10 predictions!

White vote? (0.00 / 0)
I can't wait till Or's results come in next week. This is a 50-50 state politically, with very few blacks. No caucus, either.

Wait till you see what the 'white vote' thinks of Obama here. I wonder how many pundits will even bother to note how perfectly it counters the narrative pushed in the last 5 primaries.

Oregon is the perfect place to declare victory from, esp when the supers push his numbers above 2000 delegates next week.

Childress WINS (0.00 / 0)
This race has been called, checkmark and all, by the Clarion-Ledger
MS-1 Called For Dems! (0.00 / 0)
The Clarion Ledger has just called MS-1 for the Democrat, Childers.  He's up 2%, and the majority of outstanding precincts clearly favor him.  I've been thinking it was over for about 15 minutes now, but now there's local media calling it as well.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
Beat you by 120 seconds (0.00 / 0)
But we can race for the Wikipedia edit...
[ Parent ]
Nah! You Won Fair And Square (0.00 / 0)
I'm just into basking mode right now.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
How many GOP-held districts are R+10 or less? (0.00 / 0)
Because they got a message tonight.

We're coming for you.

103 Seats (0.00 / 0)


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
Totaled out at +8 (0.00 / 0)
He finished out winning by 8.  Now, there's no way that R+18 is the new R0.  Especially not against incumbents.  But this has to be scaring the piss out of them.  They pre-viewed their anti-Obama tactics, spent equal money, and got trounced in a solid red district.

+40 seats might in fact be a lowball estimate for this november.  Might be another rash of retirements coming in the next couple of weeks.

[ Parent ]
49 Battleground Seats at R+10 Or Less (0.00 / 0)
pretty much sayz that that you're probably right.  +40 seats is not looking like a ceiling these days, especially if the retirements you speculate about start rolling in.

They just have to know that retiring before being kicked out is the better career option.  Cause career options are probably the only thing they know jack shit about.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
You were right - I was wrong (0.00 / 0)
Not sure if you'll see this comment, but I just wanted to say you were right on WV and I was wrong.  I had questioned your projection in a couple of threads, but I was way off.  Sorry 'bout that.

Of course, my projection was based on Obama campaigning in WV more than 2x, but nonetheless you nailed it.  Good job.

Meanwhile we did defeat a crooked Supreme Court Justice and Obama still received more votes than McCain, so maybe not all is lost in WV.



In a good conversation everyone speaks. In a great conversation some even listen.

May 13th Election Results Thread | 65 comments
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