Obama 242, McCain 220, Toss-up 76
(Dark Blue means "Solid Obama," or Obama +10% or more
Light Blue means "Lean Obama," or Obama +4.1%-+9.9%
White means "Toss-up," from between Obama +4.0% to McCain +4.0%
Light Red means "Lean McCain" or McCain +4.1%-+9.9%
Dark Red means "Solid McCain," or McCain +10.0% or more)
Several new state polls today have caused a few, mainly pro-Obama, changes to the map:
- A new California poll leaves the state in the "Lean Obama" category.
- Colorado moves from "Lean McCain" to "Lean Obama" based on a new poll.
- A new poll from Florida shows positive movement for Obama, but the state remains in the "Lean McCain" category.
- A new poll from Missouri makes the state more competitive, but it is still "Lean McCain."
- New Mexico moves from "Toss-up" to "Lean Obama" based on a new poll.
- A new poll from North Carolina, but it remains unchanged at "Lean McCain."
- A new poll from Pennsylvania, but it remains unchanged at "Lean Obama."
- A new poll from Virginia, but it remains unchanged at "Lean McCain."
- A new poll from Utah pushes the state even deeper into the "Solid McCain" category. Any hopes in Utah should be dashed now.
There are still some seeming outliers in this map, most notably Indiana, Massachusetts, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Texas. It is pretty surprising to see these states in the "swing" category, but that is what the polls currently show.
There is actually a logic to Indiana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. John McCain has held exactly one non-fundraising event in those three states combined (a February 22nd town hall in Indianapolis), and probably doesn't have a campaign office in any of those states. Obama, by contrast, has campaigned heavily in all three states, with 34 campaign events total. Obama is organizing in Indiana and Nebraska, while McCain is not. Why shouldn't it be closer than past elections? This is, after all, one of the main principles behind the 50-state strategy. If we campaign everywhere, and they don't, we should win in some surprising places.
And even in North Dakota, where Obama only made one appearance, the campaign is spending heavily, to the tune of four offices and ten staffers. With only 310,000 people in the North Dakota electorate, a sizable amount of uncontested campaigning spending can go a long way. Democrats have proven they can win in North Dakota, as we hold both Senate seats and the House seat. One of those Senators, Kent Conrad, is actually pretty progressive and voted against the war. You only need to sway 40,000 North Dakota Bush supporters in order to win the state. With the Obama campaign working on North Dakota, and McCain leaving it untouched, it does not strike me as inconceivable at all that Obama would be close there.
The same thing is probably true for Texas, where Obama campaigned heavily and where, with proper organizing, changing demographics will one day make it a swing state. As far as Massachusetts goes, I'm not really sure what the problem is. South Carolina is probably a bad poll, but with no other information to go on, I have to leave it in the toss-up category.
State-by-state details can be found in the extended entry. |
Solid Obama: 130 Electoral Votes
| State |
EV's |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
# Polls |
| Connecticut |
7 |
51.0% |
36.5% |
+14.5% |
2 |
| D.C. |
3 |
-- |
-- |
+80.0% |
0 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
61.0% |
31.0% |
+30.0% |
1 |
| Illinois |
21 |
59.0% |
34.0% |
+25.0% |
2 |
| Maine-AL* |
2 |
52.0% |
38.5% |
+13.5% |
2 |
| Maine-01* |
1 |
-- |
-- |
+17.0% |
0 |
| Maine-02* |
1 |
-- |
-- |
+10.0% |
0 |
| Maryland |
10 |
52.0% |
38.5% |
+13.5% |
2 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
51.5% |
38.0% |
+13.5% |
2 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
52.0% |
36.0% |
+16.0% |
2 |
| New York |
31 |
49.5% |
36.5% |
+13.0% |
2 |
| Oregon |
7 |
51.5% |
40.0% |
+11.5% |
2 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
47.5% |
34.0% |
+13.5% |
2 |
| Vermont |
3 |
60.0% |
32.5% |
+27.5% |
2 |
| Washington |
11 |
52.5% |
41.0% |
+11.5% |
2 |
Lean Obama: 112 Electoral Votes
Toss-up: 76 Electoral Votes
| State |
EV's |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
# Polls |
| Indiana |
11 |
45.5% |
49.0% |
-3.5% |
2 |
| Michigan |
17 |
43.5% |
43.0% |
+0.5% |
2 |
| Nebraska-01** |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-1.0% |
0 |
| Nebraska-02** |
1 |
-- |
-- |
+4.0% |
0 |
| Nevada |
5 |
44.0% |
45.0% |
-1.0% |
2 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
42.0% |
43.0% |
-1.0% |
2 |
| Ohio |
20 |
43.0% |
44.0% |
-1.0% |
2 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
45.0% |
48.0% |
-3.0% |
1 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
45.0% |
45.0% |
Even |
2 |
Lean McCain: 112 Electoral Votes
Solid McCain: 108 Electoral Votes
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-01 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
- If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
- Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
- If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
- No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other. |
