Electoral College: Obama 242, McCain 206, Toss-up 90
National popular vote: Obama 46.6%-44.7% McCain
(Dark Blue (184): Obama +10.0% or more
Lean Blue (58): Obama +4.1%-+9.9%
White / Toss-up (90): Obama +4.0% to McCain +4.0%
Lean Red (62): McCain +4.1%-+9.9%
Dark Red (144): McCain +10.0% or more)
For the first time this election season, the entire 50-state map actually makes intuitive sense (at least to me). Given the results of past elections, the national polls between Obama and McCain, the demographic shifts nationally, the results of the nomination campaigns, and the differences between the two major candidates and the major candidates of the past two elections, this is pretty much exactly where I would imagine the Electoral College to be right now even without the polls to back it up. Given all of these factors, I can't think of a single state that is more than 5% away from where I would imagine it to be,
North Dakota? Well, Obama campaigned hard there, while McCain has ignored it, and in such a small state that can shift the electorate quite a bit quickly. The same can be said for Nebraska-02, where Obama only trails by 4%.
Massachusetts? Obama obviously won't do as well as Kerry, and Deval Patrick can be viewed, in many ways, as the 2006 preview of Barack Obama. As such, in a state where Democrats control everything, at a time when the national mood is so foul, Massachusetts might not be quite so pro-Democratic as it once was.
Virginia? Demographic shifts in that state have been pushing it toward Democrats for a long time, and we have been winning a bunch of elections in Virginia lately. Almost inevitably, Virginia was poised to become a swing state.
Indiana? Well, Obama campaigned extremely hard in the state, while McCain has basically ignored it. Of course it is going to be more pro-Obama than would be otherwise expected.
Florida and Michigan? In contrast to North Dakota and Indiana, this time McCain is the one who has heavily out-campaigned Obama in these states. This was the real problem with the primary calendar. It isn't that Michigan and Florida resented Democrats, but rather that Michigan and Florida were the two biggest states for Republicans in their nomination campaign, while Democrats ignored both states. Simply put, they have a head start on us in both states.
Colorado and Montana have been moving toward Democrats for at least the past four years In fact, in 2004, both states were bright spots in an otherwise dismal year for Democrats. No surprise at all that Obama is doing better than Kerry and Gore in those two states.
In South Carolina, Obama's efforts in the state back in 2007 and in January of 2008 have probably upped African-American registration to the point where the state isn't much different than North Carolina in terms of partisan voting index. The Palmetto state will remain a bit more Republican than it's northern neighbor, but probably not much.
Overall, very few states are currently showing massive blowouts of more than 16%. Only Alabama, Arkansas, D.C., Illinois, Hawaii, Kentucky, NE-03, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont have reached the true blowout stage. The swing, "battleground" states might be extremely numerous this time around, making Obama and Dean's decisions to staff up in every state very smart. Run everywhere for a couple of months, and see what shakes out. If necessary, we can tighten our battleground focus in September, but until that time we should try to win everywhere.
More state by state details in the extended entry. |
Solid Obama: 184 Electoral Votes
Lean Obama: 58 Electoral Votes
Toss-up: 90 Electoral Votes
Lean McCain: 54 Electoral Votes
Solid McCain: 144 Electoral Votes
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
- If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
- Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
- If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
- No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other. |
