Obama Widens Lead: Tracking Polls in Agreement

by: tremayne

Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 14:57


A picture is worth a thousand words so here is the Gallup daily tracking poll through today:

 

 

Often during the primary season the Gallup tracking poll and the Rasmussen poll were at odds. But not now. Here is the Rasmussen picture:

 

 

The margin of error on Gallup and Rasmussen is +/-2 so Obama is ahead outside the margin. But, when you have two polls with differences in methodology and each shows Obama with 48 and one has McCain at 40 and the other 41, you can drop that margin of error even further.

Kevin Drum is predicting a near permanent lead of this size for Obama. One can hope for that. It could also be a bounce from the June 3rd speech night where Obama did his thing and McCain did his lime-green thing. And Hillary Clinton's recent endorsement is obviously another likely factor.

At any rate, this is a faster poll improvement than I expected and I'm an optimist. Contrarily, I've heard some pessimists say in comments that these national polls mean nothing and that Obama could finish with a 5-point lead over McCain and lose in the electoral college. While there are reasons to believe that Obama could get "Gore"d with an even higher popular vote margin than Al, there is virtually no way he'll lose in the electoral college with a 5% margin in the popular vote (Gore's margin was only 0.5%). While you can carefully construct a scenario where he loses each and every close state and wins California and New York with 75% of the vote, it won't happen that way.

As we get closer to election day and there are more and more state polls to look at, we can turn our attention to those. For now, the national polls remain a useful yardstick on the state of the race.

tremayne :: Obama Widens Lead: Tracking Polls in Agreement

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Obama Widens Lead: Tracking Polls in Agreement | 20 comments
winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college (0.00 / 0)
Of course, now that Nate Silver has sabermetricized politics, we can say - with the confidence that only quoting people smarter than ourselves can instill - that:

There is a 2.57% chance that Obama will win the popular vote and lose the electoral college; but, there is a 5.43% chance that Obama will lose the popular vote and win the electoral college.

i think (0.00 / 0)
there's at least 2.59 chance not a 2.57 chance. But I spilled Coke on my calculator so maybe not.
[ Parent ]
Actually, (0.00 / 0)
There's a 2.59 chance that was not Coke at all, but a cheap Homer Simpson knock-off.

After all, you spilled it, didn't you?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
by the way (0.00 / 0)
Nate's "scenario analysis," at fivethirtyeight.com, where I got those numbers, also shows the mildly fascinating fact that there is a 0 in 10,000 chance of Obama winning exactly the states that Kerry won and a 1 in 10,000 chance that he'll win exactly Gore's states.
[ Parent ]
I expected a bigger unity bounce (0.00 / 0)
This is a disturbingly small a lead given Dem's advantages.

McCain remains a relatively popular republican.... (0.00 / 0)
as indicated in the "favorability" ratings.  But Obama remains -- after all of the negative press this spring -- more well liked than McCain.  Coupled with the underlying dynamics of the year, this bodes well for our chances in November.  But we still have work to do to define McCain as just another Republican.
[ Parent ]
McCain gets adoring press (0.00 / 0)
  And STILL doesn't get beyond the low forties.

 I expect the Obama campaign to hack away at that adoring press.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
I agree (4.00 / 1)
The polling history shows that McCain has a ceiling of about 46%.  

The Politics of Bruno S.

[ Parent ]
I didn't (4.00 / 1)
I've read in various places that GOP operatives were expecting a 10% bounce and just assumed it was expectations setting.  He'll probably get a bigger bounce from the convention considering his oratorical skills and probably from the VP selection if he can work the Hillary issue out first appropriately.

To me the most telling data occurred months ago when he was getting terrible press in a divisive primary and still wasn't falling more than a point or two behind McCain.

The Politics of Bruno S.

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's done (4.00 / 1)
But I also think that Obama needs at least a 5% cushion because some people will lie to pollsters about voting for him.  I'd like to see a consistent 10+% lead.

But I think he's going to win, probably a decisive electoral majority.  McCain isn't going to wear well.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
I Agree. Expect A McCain Meltdown (0.00 / 0)
The guy's cranky, old, unstable, and accustomed to being coddled and adored by the press.  In his own way, he's even more of a bubble boy than Bush.

He's already showing crack-up signs, and Obama's still shooting warmup.

A 60-40 blowout remains a distinct possibility.  Remember the last time a Senator from Arizona?  That's exacly what happened then.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Why would you expect (4.00 / 1)
a bigger bounce one week out after a contested and bitter primary?
[ Parent ]
3 day vs. 5 day (0.00 / 0)
It is great news, but it is worth noting that they changed their methodology from a five day average to a three day average, so greater volatility in the numbers is not surprising.

That the 48 number stayed firm even though they dropped out a trailing 46 implies that yesterday was a one day bump and a new 46 entered the picture.

The light drop from 42 to 41 suggests that a 44 came in to replace McCain's trailing 45. That also points to yesterday just being a short bounce.

It is entirely possible that this is the starting tip of a big move up for Obama, and my gut says that is exactly what it is, but it could also be a one day Hillary related spike. We'll see. At any rate, it isn't a sign of disunity by any measure.

I would also probably disagree that adding two polls together lowers the margin of error, but my stats isn't good enough to make a good case why. It just seems intuitive to me that a lot of bad information pointing to the same result doesn't mean you must have good information afterall.

Are there any valid historical comparisons? (0.00 / 0)
Does history teach us learn anything at all about whether the current bounce is likely to persist?

I assume that the answer is "no," but I am curious.  Specifically, have past campaigns witnessed similar bumps once a nominee becomes "presumptive"? If so, do the bumps last?

Kerry's spring bump (0.00 / 0)
Did NOT last. He was ahead about 5-6 in early June of 2004 according to Gallup. Of course he clinched much earlier.
[ Parent ]
As I posted yesterday from Real Clear politic (0.00 / 0)
Kerry didn't have a bump so I am not sure what you mean by that?
[ Parent ]
"bounce" may not be the word (0.00 / 0)
but Kerry was ahead in most June/July 2004 polling:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

He was essentially the nominee much earlier of course. Here's the March/April/May data which is closer but Kerry is mostly ahead especially in May:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Things started to turn Bush's way in latter August.

[ Parent ]
it was a statistical deadheat (0.00 / 0)
for most of the time, and on top of this, we are fundamentally in a different year with both a) a contested and fractious primary b) a week out from that primary. Frankly, I think your expectations and those of others seem a bit unrealistic. It's summer. People aren't paying attention to politics. The fact he's up this high at all is a surprise to me.
[ Parent ]
Sure--Dukakis' 17% lead (0.00 / 0)
Over Poppy Bush in the summer of 1988.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
that was the post-convention bounce (0.00 / 0)
if i recall.
[ Parent ]
Obama Widens Lead: Tracking Polls in Agreement | 20 comments
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