Opening the Day: McCain Is Done

by: Matt Stoller

Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:54


I'm watching a duet of arguments from Katie Couric and Keith Olbermann about sexism in the primary.  Couric thinks Clinton had the worst media treatment she's ever seen, because of tolerated sexism, for which Olbermann calls her the 'worst person in the world'.  Very bloggy exchange.

Here's what I'm seeing this morning.

  • Obama launches http://www.fightthesmears.com.  Good for the campaign.

  • Bush fired Karl Rove at church. Classy.

  • 14 Republican Congressmen are refusing to endorse McCain.

  • McCain is going to lose, and lose big.  I just watched McCain's full strategy briefing by Rick Davis, which you can see here.  It reminds me of a dot com business plan from 1999, with unbelievably ridiculous assumptions.  In the path to victory section, Davis encourages us to 'keep a close eye on California'.  Crash.

    He brags that the campaign is ahead in Wisconsin, though the latest poll shows him 14 points behind.  Crash.

    And can compete in New Mexico because of his appeal among Hispanic voters, despite two recent polls showing Obama leading McCain among hispanics by thirty points.  Crash.

    Davis also says that no public poll has shown Obama leading McCain among independents.  What about this one?  Crash.

  • Chuck Schumer sees as many as 11 Senate seats going to the Democrats this cycle.

  • Washington is no longer a swing state, with McCain down by 18.  This can only help downticket candidates like Darcy Burner.

  • According to Rasmussen, Cornyn is up by 17 against Noriega.  This race is a gamble, and will rely on Cornyn doing something really stupid and Noriega taking advantage.

  • Dion Nissenbaum of McClatchy reports that a strike on Iran is back on the table.

  • New Obama economic policy director Jason Furman picks up some defenders.

What are you reading?
Matt Stoller :: Opening the Day: McCain Is Done

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Opening the Day: McCain Is Done | 21 comments
Obama leads 45-39 in New Jersey (0.00 / 0)
That and more in Blue Jersey's newsroundup.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
New Jersey always polls weird (0.00 / 0)
In both 2000 and 2004 New Jersey looked like a swing state based on polling, but it was never close. Likewise, in 2006, it looked like Republicans had an outside chance of picking up a senate seat, but it wasn't even close when people actually cast their ballots.

It doesn't make sense to me that New Jersey would poll about the same as national polls right now - it's just not a 50/50 state. Is it just that folks in New Jersey really like to bad-mouth their Democratic politicians but vote for them anyway?

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
SW PA Partisan Trends (0.00 / 0)
Looking at the McCain presentation, the Ohio/Pennsylvania slide really stood out to me.  Living in Pittsburgh, it is a beautiful piece of deceptive and lying powerpoint. I have some county by county SW Pennylvania partisan trend analysis over the Newshoggers.  Basically the big population centers lean Dem (Pittsburgh's county is about D+9)and the rest of the counties with one exception have minimal population.  
[ Parent ]
Yet another VP possibility... (4.00 / 2)
I was just thinking - and he wouldn't be my first choice - but Lincoln Chafee could be on the list of potential VP picks. Sure, he's a Republican, but he basically defines the term RINO. He's got a more liberal record than at least half the VP names being bandied about (e.g. Chuck Hagel, Evan Bayh, Sam Nunn, etc.) He's got a good record on core issues like the environment and reproductive rights and he voted against the Iraq war, which is more than I can say for a lot of Democratic senators.

The big advantage is that it would make the media (and some independent voters) swoon with their post-partisan fetish, without actually compromising in any significant way on the issues. On the other hand, he adds nothing to the ticket demographically or geographically. His only real claim to fame is being the last of a nearly extinct species.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

if Chaffee became President (0.00 / 0)
I would walk in front of a bus
[ Parent ]
Really? (4.00 / 1)
Is it really that bad?

I was just throwing it out there because I just got done with jury duty and decided that I sure as hell didn't want the job.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
Caroline Kennedy for VP? (0.00 / 0)
Caroline Kennedy could be an interesting choice for VP -- and at the least, another name in the mix that will make the debate interesting.

Obama knows her, since they've been campaigning together; she brings more cred than anyone who's never been elected to high office, and as much cred as many of the politicians that are being considered.

She's smart, capable, charismatic, and understands what is at stake -- and she brings a unique appeal to the ticket.

So -- what's not to like?

[ Parent ]
Maybe she will pull a Cheney and pick herself! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Has she ever held elected office? (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure what kind of "cred" comes from having a famous last name. That's the same kind of sentiment that gave us Bush 43.

miasmo.com
[ Parent ]
No elected office (0.00 / 0)
If people really want an Obama/Kennedy ticket the running mate should be this lady:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

[ Parent ]
No elected office either. (0.00 / 0)
I really don't think picking someone for whom the general election for the presidency would be their very first time running for office. I think that's setting the bar a bit low.

miasmo.com
[ Parent ]
RE: Caroline Kennedy for VP? (0.00 / 0)
Hmmm.  That might actually be pretty cool...
[ Parent ]
He's not a Republican any longer. (4.00 / 1)
I'm almost certain he's a register Independent, now. He's not anywhere near the top of my list, but I kinda love picking an anti-war ex-Republican who blasted Democrats for caving to Bush. If only he were from Ohio ...
[ Parent ]
Time on smear site (0.00 / 0)
Karen Tumulty has a nice article on why Obama made the website.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Even Bush was scared of confronting Rove (0.00 / 0)
Bush "Thanks for all the smash mouth bullshit, stealing it for me in FL and OH, Valerie Plame, selling the war, but there's just too much heat on you"

Just like a mafia government "there's too much heat on you", yeah, makes sense, he probably really said that to Rove.

I don't blame him. (0.00 / 0)
I hear Rove has a bit of an anger management problem.

miasmo.com
[ Parent ]
"Cornyn doing something really stupid" (0.00 / 0)
A macaca moment from a douchebag like Cornyn might be a long shot, but not that much of a long shot.

miasmo.com
The moment I found out about McCain's ex wife (0.00 / 0)
I knew he was gonna lose.  

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com
Very Bloggy Exchange (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, it sure was. A woman complains about sexism, and an apparently progressive Obama supporter tells her to sod off.
Defending the village (0.00 / 0)
The exchange doesn't really seem to be about Clinton or sexism at all.  

Couric's job is in trouble.  She probably believes that she is a victim of sexism just as much as Clinton is.  Her comments may be related to shoring up her own position in the village, claiming victimhood indirectly through Clinton.

But - oops! - she's so desperate she forgot the rules.  She took the step of actual making a criticism against the media, not in a vague way, but by identifying statements that can actually be traced back to members of the MSM.  This is absolutely forbidden.

Which is why Olbermann is so incensed - he spends most of his rant defending the honor of one of the journalists she critiqued.  It isn't her opinions about Clinton or sexism, but her betrayal of the tribe, that makes her the "worst person in the world."

I have no use for either of them - they are both vapid, overpaid, cowardly careerists.  But, as always with media types, whenever it seems they are talking about something important, they are really just talking about themselves.

[ Parent ]
What am I reading? Have just finished Bad Money by Kevin Phillips and he has (0.00 / 0)
convinced me that Wall Street has had too much control over financial policy.  For that reason I have considerable reserve about Mr. Furman.  I've just finished Phillipe Sands, Torture Team, which describes how to prosecute members of the administration through an international court.  Sands has lain out the case in detail.  Finally, I'm finishing Jim Webb's A Time to Fight: Reclaiming a Fair and Just America.  While Webb is the best writer IMHO, each of these authors has made me glad I've made the selections.

Earlier this summer I read Cliff Schecter's The Real John McCain and Paul Waldman and David Brock's Free Ride.  My concern continues to be how to get McCain's record before the voters.  The MSM is pretty bad.  I haven't seen any substantive discussion taking place thus far.  

I'm hoping Obama will continue to soar. It's going to be a long five months.

Opening the Day: McCain Is Done | 21 comments
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