| In my diary last weekend, "The Democratic Swing & Independent Swing--What The SUSA Polls Can Tell Us", I amplified Chris's point about the magnitude of the Democratic swing being larger than that of the independent swing, by presenting a state-level analysis using the Survey USA polls with different VP candidates generating the ranges used for the "swing" calculations. I did this for all voters, and for Democrats and Independents. In this diary, I want to take a look at how Edwards on the ticket changed things.
The point here is not to make the case for Edwards--I think I've already done that quite convincingly. Whether or not he would reverse himself and accept if called, his presence on the ticket clearly makes a landslide much more possible. So the point of this diary is just to get a little better fix on what his presence accomplishes in regard to the swings Chris was comparing. Because, one way or another, if Democrats can get to the point that the battlefield looks like it would with Edwards on the ticket, then we are defintely on the road to having ourselves another 1932.
Charts and tables on the flip. |
| Let's start off with a chart to establish the big picture. The thick purple line is Obama alone against McCain, the thick light blue line is Obama/Edwards against the average of four McCain VPs, the dark yellow line is the lower bound for Obama, his worst VP matchup vs. McCain's strongest in each state (not the same matchup across them all), and the light yellow line is Obama/Edwards' worst showing against McCain's strongest VP against them. The two sightly different-colored orange lines (differing only in Nebraska) are the best showings by Obama and Obama Edwards:
Two things are most striking about this chart: First, the lower bound with Obama/Edwards is dramatically higher than the lower bound with Obama alone--and this is true across all states. Second, the worst Obama/Edwards showing is better than the straight-up Obama v. McCain numbers for the same state for almost every state--a shows of remarkable consistency for Edwards helping Obama.
For those who love pouring over numbers, here's a table presenting some of the significant data underlying the above chart. Margins are the thick lines, best are the orange lines, worst are the yellow. Key things to look at are the swing percent change and the worst showing gain. These are the clearest indications of how much Edwards helps Obama, using a comparable measure for all states. There is a remarkable consistency in both measures. Percent gains range from a low of 57% to a high of 74%, but with more than 2/3rs of them in the 60s, and an average of 64%. Gains in worst showing range from 11% to 20% with an average of 14:
| Swing Range Based on VPs-Obama V. McCain | | | Obama Alone v. McCain/VPs | Obama/Edwards v. McCain/VPs | Swings | Worst Showing | | States | Margin | Best | Worst | Margin | Best | Worst | Obama | O/E | Change | % Change | Obama | O/E | Gain | | KS | -10% | -2% | -26% | -8% | -2% | -12% | 24% | 10% | 14% | 58% | -26% | -12% | 14% | | NE | -9% | 4% | -17% | -3% | 2% | -6% | 21% | 8% | 13% | 62% | -17% | -6% | 11% | | NM | 0% | 10% | -17% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 27% | 7% | 20% | 74% | -17% | 3% | 20% | | MO | 2% | 11% | -13% | 7% | 11% | 3% | 24% | 8% | 16% | 67% | -13% | 3% | 16% | | MA | 5% | 20% | -1% | 14% | 20% | 11% | 21% | 9% | 12% | 57% | -1% | 11% | 12% | | MN | 5% | 15% | -8% | 11% | 15% | 7% | 23% | 8% | 15% | 65% | -8% | 7% | 15% | | WI | 6% | 15% | -5% | 11% | 15% | 8% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 65% | -5% | 8% | 13% | | VA | 7% | 18% | -8% | 13% | 18% | 9% | 26% | 9% | 17% | 65% | -8% | 9% | 17% | | CA | 8% | 15% | -4% | 12% | 15% | 9% | 19% | 6% | 13% | 68% | -4% | 9% | 13% | | PA | 8% | 17% | -5% | 14% | 17% | 10% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 68% | -5% | 10% | 15% | | OH | 9% | 18% | -2% | 14% | 18% | 11% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 65% | -2% | 11% | 13% | | IA | 9% | 26% | -8% | 19% | 26% | 12% | 34% | 14% | 20% | 59% | -8% | 12% | 20% | | OR | 10% | 17% | -2% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 19% | 7% | 12% | 63% | -2% | 10% | 12% | | NY | 10% | 20% | -1% | 16% | 20% | 12% | 21% | 8% | 13% | 62% | -1% | 12% | 13% | | WA | 16% | 23% | 5% | 20% | 23% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 11% | 61% | 5% | 16% | 11% | | Avg | 5.1% | 15.1% | -7.5% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 6.9% | 23% | 8% | 14% | 64% | -7% | 7% | 14% |
Next, we take a graphical look at how this is reflected among Democrats. Note how incredibly narrow the swing is with Edwards from Pennsylvania onwards--and how correspondingly large the gap is between Obama' worst showing without Edwards and his worst showing with him:
And a look at how it is reflected among independents. Here it's atill clear how strongly and consistently Edwards helps Obama, but it's clear that nothing can match the strength he brings in nailing down the Democratic base vote:
We can summarize the above charts by putting together the swings of all voters, Democrats and independents into one chart, first for Obama alone, and then for Obama/Edwards.
For Obama alone, the swing ranges from around 17% to about 34%, and the Democratic swing is noticably higher in virtually every state:
For Obama/Edwards, the swing is much lower--ranging from around 6% to about 14%, and the independent swing is larger than the Democratic swing in a number of states:
The following two tables present the data underlying the charts above:
| Swing Range Based on VPs-Obama V. McCain | | | Amount of Swing | Percent of Swing* | | State | Total | Dems | Inds | Diff | Dems | Inds | Diff | | WA | 18.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 40.6% | 33.2% | 7.4% | | CA | 19.0% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 55.6% | 26.3% | 29.3% | | OR | 19.0% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 50.5% | 31.0% | 19.5% | | OH | 20.0% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 59.8% | 34.2% | 25.6% | | WI | 20.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 0.4% | 39.6% | 37.7% | 1.9% | | MA | 21.0% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 57.9% | 48.3% | 9.6% | | NY | 21.0% | 13.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 65.5% | 27.5% | 38.0% | | NE | 21.0% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 41.6% | 15.4% | 26.2% | | PA | 22.0% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 47.5% | 18.6% | 28.9% | | MN | 23.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 42.8% | 28.7% | 14.1% | | MO | 24.0% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 49.5% | 26.8% | 22.7% | | KS | 24.0% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 45.0% | 15.6% | 29.4% | | VA | 26.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 1.7% | 39.4% | 33.0% | 6.4% | | NM | 27.0% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 11.4% | 52.0% | 9.8% | 42.2% | | IA | 34.0% | 12.6% | 13.2% | -0.6% | 37.1% | 38.8% | -1.8% | | Avg | 22.6% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 48.3% | 28.3% | 20.0% | | * Swings are not strictly additive, as they represent maximums from a range of values, but can safely be directly compared. |
| Swing Range Based on VPs-Obama/Edwards V. McCain/VPs | | | Amount of Swing | Percent of Swing* | | State | Total | Dems | Inds | Diff | Dems | Inds | Diff | | CA | 6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | -0.6% | 24.0% | 33.3% | -9.3% | | NM | 7% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 74.3% | 22.3% | 52.0% | | OH | 7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | -1.5% | 37.1% | 59.1% | -22.0% | | PA | 7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 39.3% | 38.6% | 0.7% | | WA | 7% | 1.7% | 3.9% | -2.2% | 24.6% | 55.7% | -31.1% | | WI | 7% | 0.7% | 3.2% | -2.5% | 10.3% | 45.6% | -35.3% | | OR | 7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 34.3% | 29.9% | 4.4% | | MO | 8% | 1.3% | 3.7% | -2.4% | 16.5% | 46.0% | -29.5% | | MN | 8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 41.0% | 27.5% | 13.5% | | NE | 8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 42.8% | 11.3% | 31.5% | | NY | 8% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 89.4% | 29.8% | 59.6% | | MA | 9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 80.0% | 52.0% | 28.0% | | VA | 9% | 1.2% | 3.7% | -2.5% | 13.7% | 41.6% | -27.9% | | KS | 10% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 48.0% | 18.0% | 30.0% | | IA | 14% | 2.7% | 5.3% | -2.6% | 19.3% | 37.7% | -18.4% | | Avg | 8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 39.6% | 36.5% | 3.1% | | * Swings are not strictly additive, as they represent maximums from a range of values, but can safely be directly compared. |
Combined, the figures make it quite clear that Edwards has dramatically reduced the size of the Democratic swing by solidifying the base. There are still a lot of Democratic base votes in play, due to the sheer size of the Democratic base, and to the strength of the Obama/Edwards ticket among independents. But Edwards has dramatically reduced the uncertainty among the base that remained at the end of the primary season.
Conclusion
The above analysis was based on the SUSA polls taken in May. The older of these are now almost a month old, and it is obvious that Obama's campaign has hit the ground running, while McCain is still visibly fumbling. In all probability, Obama has already gained significantly among the Democratic base since the earliest--if not all--of these polls were taken.
Still, the Republican smear machine has not let up, and we can only expect much more of the same. A known, familiar, respected quantity like John Edwards is a powerful guarantor against the dramatic ups and downs that this sort of dirty campaign can bring. Thus, the above figures represent a realistic benchmark, not just for the beginning of the general election race, but also, going forward, for what an Obama team should strive to achieve in narrowing the battlefield significantly in their favor. |
