Important New Iowa Poll Shows Clinton (And Edwards) Ahead

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 15:53


Some of you might remember an old hobby horse of mine, The Inflated Clinton Poll Theory. The original hypothesis that led to the theory was that Hillary Clinton drawing disproportionate support in national and early state polls from Democrats who were less likely to vote. In the end, I concluded that thesis was incorrect, and instead argued that Clinton’s support was only overstated by the degree to which different polling firms would push undecideds to make a choice. However, a new Iowa poll suggests that, at least in Iowa, the Inflated Clinton Poll Theory might actually be valid:
University of Iowa poll, 425 Democratic Caucus Goers, MoE +/-4.9%, July 29th through August 5th
Candidate All Dem Caucus Goers Most Likely Caucus Goers Least Likely Caucus Goers
Clinton 26.8 24.8 32.7
Obama 22.3 19.3 25.2
Edwards 22.1 26.0 10.3
Richardson 8.5 9.4 5.6
Others 4.1 4.1 4.7
Unsure 16.2 14.4 21.5

There are a couple of really interesting things in this poll:
  • First, I am struck by how similar the “least likely” caucus goers in Iowa seem to break along roughly the same lines as national polls. Would anyone bat an eyelash at a national poll showing Clinton 33%, Obama 25%, Edwards 10%, and Richardson 6%? I don’t think so. Even though Clinton’s number has been higher lately, the similarity is interesting, and might imply that once the campaign heats up post-Iowa, there could be as much flexibility in national numbers as there was in 2004. Of course, there are only 106 in the least likely caucus goers sample, so it might be best not to put too much stock in those numbers.

  • The gap between Edwards support among most likely caucus goers, and least likely caucus goers, is statistically significant. I don’t know if this is good for Edwards, showing that he has hard support, or bad for Edwards, showing that he might be close to a ceiling because he isn’t doing as well among those who are not paying as much attention yet.

  • As far as the inflated poll theory goes, having been burned so many times about claims that a candidate I like has some sort of huge turnout machine that will prove the polls wrong (see both Dean and Kerry in 2004), that if I were an Edwards supporter I would be extremely wary of using this poll to argue that he is actually ahead. Perhaps Edwards does hold a narrow lead among the most likely caucus goers, but with four months to the caucus (at least), how can we really know what a likely caucus-goer is at this point? That is why I simply cannot take this poll as proof of the Inflated Clinton Poll Theory. It is simply too early to rely on “likely voter” screens.

  • Now, with all this said, it is still obviously very close in Iowa. The current, four-poll average (all polls taken July 23rd or later) currently stands at Clinton 26.2%, Edwards 24.0%, Obama, 20.1%, Richardson 11.1%. Among all four of those candidates, that average is probably the least good news for Edwards. Even so, he is clearly in the game in Iowa. This is shaping up to be an exciting, four-person campaign.
On the Republican side, Romney is walking away with Iowa, currently holding a dominating, 27%-11% lead over second place Giuliani. If you are the only candidate over 15% in Iowa, the caucus is yours to lose.
Chris Bowers :: Important New Iowa Poll Shows Clinton (And Edwards) Ahead

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Important New Iowa Poll Shows Clinton (And Edwards) Ahead | 6 comments
"Most Likely" (0.00 / 0)
Typically, "most likely" caucus-goers are people who attend the 2004 Caucus and voted in the 2006 primaries. I don't know if that's how they determined the category for this poll, but that would exclude two groups where Obama runs especially strong: young voters and independents. Other than that, the only surprise for me is that Clinton isn't doing worse among the most likely voters. It seems to me that a lot of people who aren't paying a great deal of attention provide her name as the sort of "default" answer when asked of their opinion on the race. However, maybe these people are intending to caucus and are just stating an early preference.

In any case, Clinton definitely seemed to pick up momentum after the Bill visit during the 4th of July. If the Iowa caucuses were held tomorrow, I would say, as someone in Iowa, that she would likely be the winner. It's up to Obama and Edwards to make something happen, and they're starting to go after her.

As an Obama supporter, it's good to see him gaining strength again.

Bill is a big weapon (0.00 / 0)
I imagine he will come and campaign for Hillary during the run-up to Iowa, which is going to be hard for other candidates to match. Even Lieberman caught up several points after Bill's visit to CT on his behalf late last July.

If we is on the stump in Iowa during the two weeks before the caucus, that is going to be tough for other candidates to match. 
[ Parent ]
Likelihood of Changing Preference (0.00 / 0)
65.2% of people are either very or somewhat likely to change their mind prior to the Iowa Caucuses.  Nearly 2/3s of people still find it likely to change their votes.  There is still a lot of fluidity to this race which is important to note.
my thoughts about this poll (4.00 / 1)
Obviously, I would like to see Edwards further ahead among the most likely caucus-goers. If the caucus were held tomorrow and he only narrowly edged out Clinton, that would not be good enough to overcome her advantages in the other states.

I couldn't care less about the "least likely" voter sample. A lot of the people who claim they plan to caucus will find excuses not to. The people who don't even bother to pretend that they will caucus are definitely not going to be there.

Somewhere else I read that the "all Dem caucus-goer" results of this poll assume a turnout rate that would lead to 260,000 people showing up for the Democratic caucuses in Iowa. That is more than double the number of people who showed up in 2004. There is just no way in the world that will happen. I would be shocked (but pleased) to see turnout above 150,000 on the Democratic side.

Undecided voters hold the key. In 2003, they ruled out Dean and Gephardt very early in the process. That is why Kerry and Edwards, polling in the single digits in Iowa for months before the caucuses, surged toward the end.

I want to know which candidates are still getting serious consideration from undecided voters. I think Edwards still has more room to grow among the undecideds than Clinton does, but perhaps Bill will give her a "Bubba bounce" toward the end of the campaign.

One reason I think Richardson has a lot of potential to gain in Iowa is that I rarely meet anyone who has ruled him out.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Romney bet(spent) correctly on Iowa (0.00 / 0)
although he ran an ad here in Michigan a few months back that was one of the worst I have ever seen, he was talking 1998 issues, hello, it's 2007? 
Now, I saw Huckabee on Hardball last night.  Kos thought he was going to dominate earlier in the year, look out for this guy, etc, and I kinda went along, thinking he would break into the top tier at least.  But then I saw him on one of the GOP debates, listened to what a kook he was and rethought my position.  and apparently so did the "GOP establishment" whatever that's worth.  But, boy, on Hardball he was full throated populist, Pat Buchanan, GOP has to get back to the working guy level, etc.  Some of it sounded pretty good, definately could resonate, and Huckabee could pull a surprise showing in Iowa.  Maybe not win but a big second could give him alot of momentum.  Now, from my perspective, he totally flubbed the health care question.  Talking about how American's need to "own" their health care, be able to negotiate prices, etc.  So, clearly, he's in the the tinkering around the edges, leave it as-is, get people to think it's ok like we did in 1994 and the health care issue will "blow over", until, well I guess it becomes a category 4 hurricane that threatens 1/2 the coast.
Iowa will be a knife fight (0.00 / 0)
Iowa has this very unique process that I don't completely understand but I bet it plays alot into the candidates strategy.  Kerry, as I remember, pulled off his big win in Iowa by using suprior organizing skills AT THE CAUCUS.  As the votes continued throughout the night, Kerry supporters were very clever in convincing lower total supporters to caucus with Kerry.  Edwards team also seemed to use this to their advantage and come in strong, 3rd right? Anyway, Dean's people, who were novice to the caucus system were caught off guard and got trounced.  This time around it may be Obama that might be at the disadvantage here because I suspect his campaign is getting alot of the new blood that might be novice at this process.  But, I think Obama's team will take lessons from Kerry and probably well train their supporters that will attend the caucus. 
However, and here's the knife fight, so will Edwards, Clinton, Richardson.  I don't know if Biden, Kucinich or Dodd will put enough skin in the game to put up a real effort.  Clinton, by 'buying' Vilsack's endorsement also bought his seasoned political supporters.  So advantage Clinton.  Edwards supporters have been through this before advantage Edwards.  Obama has a sizable surge of new blood eager to win and ready to LEARN, advantage Obama.  Richardson has a good grassroots appeal and they too will go to the mat for their guy so Richardson gets a partial advantage.  Now, how much did Dean and Gephardt nuking each other affect the caucus?  Probably made them both so radioactive it was easy to peel off their support in the counties where they were weak.  The campaigns will heat up, Iowa will still be disproportionately influential and a calculus program could be used to optimize a candidates vote county by county.  But, if Iowa does move into December that could seriously dilute Iowa's impact.  The New Year is a physcological threshold point.  And I really think that even a big win in Iowa won't spill over into the New Year contests.  New Year, clean slate.  Just a feeling.  Iowa could make big mistake by going into December but maybe, hopefully it has to happen, teach the system a lesson before we end up with primaries/caucus's in the summer of 2011! (well that doesn't make sense, if they learn the lesson..oh never mind)
Important New Iowa Poll Shows Clinton (And Edwards) Ahead | 6 comments
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