Emerging Obama Targeting Strategy

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 17:00


Here is a map that projects Obama's current state targeting strategy. States where organizing fellows are being sent, and where his new ad campaign is running, are shown in black. States receiving either organizing fellows or the ad campaign, but not both, are shown in gray. States receiving neither are allocated according to their 2004 results:

Obama Targeting Strategy

Black, "Heavy Targets": 179 electoral votes
Gray, "Moderate Targets": 53 electoral votes
Blue, "Low Targets": 167 electoral votes
Red, "Low Targets": 139 electoral votes

The black, gray and blue total 399 electoral votes, leaving only 139 McCain "safe" states. However, there are actually several more  "red" states, worth a combined 57 electoral votes, where a recent poll shows a single digit campaign: Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, all of Nebraska except the 3rd congressional, South Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Even the occasional Texas poll has shown a single-digit campaign. As such, it would probably be a good idea to run national cable ads to supplement these targeted state buys. If the national polls move another three or four points in Obama's direction, more resources can then be directed to these third-tier states.

Still, given that the Obama campaign is putting staff in all fifty-states, the fifty-state nature of the nomination campaign, the DNC's fifty-state strategy is well underway, and that the Obama campaign is engaged in a fifty-state voter registration drive, basically nowhere is going truly uncontested. Unlike many previous campaigns, Democrats now have a solid national foundation that will serve us well into the future. The enormous number of states within ten points or less, not to mention our numerous House and Senate pickup opportunities, is a testament to its success.
Chris Bowers :: Emerging Obama Targeting Strategy

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Emerging Obama Targeting Strategy | 19 comments
Looking at Georgia again, (4.00 / 1)
I wonder if the strategy there is to not only register lots of voters, but to make McCain spend money in another one of the 10 most expensive media markets in the country (i.e. Atlanta).  Money that he can't afford to spend as he is also forced to spend heavily in places like Boston (NH), OH, MI, Las Vegas, and VA if he is to have any chance of winning.

That to me, would make sense as to why so much attention is being put there as opposed to SC or MS where I would wager Obama has an equally good if not better chance of winning.  

Then again, (4.00 / 1)
If that is the strategy, then why not also put some bucks into Texas? The voter participation in Texas is usually the lowest in the country. Seems like there'd be some low-hanging fruit there in terms of getting unregistered people to the polls. And all the better if you force McCain to spend money in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.  
[ Parent ]
Not sure. (4.00 / 1)
Ever notice how happy we get when the Republicans blow a stack of cash trying to win in New Jersey?  I can't help but wonder if Republicans would be equally giddy if we made a serious play for Texas (or other pretty seriously red states).  

I support the 50-state strategy because of its impact on congress--both in electing more Dem. congresscritters and in having the ones who are elected feel like they owe Obama something.  Oh, and it gives us a shot in places in 20 years.  But I'd still rather most of the effort go to places which are cheaper and winnable.

[ Parent ]
McCain takes Federal funds he has £80 mil max (0.00 / 0)
Obama opts out can raise so much more. He's gonna be able to afford to play where ever he wants. McCain much less so.
[ Parent ]
Exchange rate (4.00 / 2)
Yeah, but that's like $160 million in dollars with its weakness against the pound. ;-)

Seriously, does the $80 represent his total amount of spending, or the federal match?

[ Parent ]
Lol (0.00 / 0)
That is the cheque from the government isn't it? Total spend allowed post GOP convention I believe.
[ Parent ]
Check even. Am giving away my location with that one! (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
I Think The GOP's Current Currency Is The Yen (4.00 / 1)
though I'm betting on clamshells by early next year.

Softshell clams make for a soft currency.  Hardshell for a hard currency.

That's the theory, at least.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

[ Parent ]
State Committees (4.00 / 1)
He's pouring the money into the state GOP committees to get around McCain-Feingold (the irony burns).  That $80M limit is meaningless, he's holding $50K a plate fundraisers where the extra goes to the state committee of a battleground.
[ Parent ]
But that was when we were at parity (2006) (4.00 / 1)
and the republicans needed to be playing defense in places like Ohio and VA rather than going on fools errands in NJ and MI. I don't think Obama will have to play much defense in places like WA, OR, or NJ, so his advantage and ability to play offense will be much greater. I'm not saying he must spend money in TX. I'm just really curious as to why they think GA is so much a better option than other deep south states (with large minority populations).
[ Parent ]
This is THE battle for America. (4.00 / 2)
Win it big, give people a massive buy-in, make them proud, give them a history of being on the winning side, the change side a habit of registering and voting. People want to give to make this happen, it is Obama's duty almost to "community organize" the America neighborhood.

This really does seem to be a very good very well thought out series of projects and plans to bring America back.

To steal the phrase I read elsewhere: "I used to watch the TV and scream at the Dems for being so stupid, now almost every time I see Obama do something I hear myself saying, '..wow that's smart'."

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

[ Parent ]
newest polling puts him at even... (4.00 / 1)
...that's why.  The Bob Barr effect is also in play!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
now we know why GA (tied in poll today) (4.00 / 2)
kos is covering a new GA poll that shows McCain 44, Obama 43.  Barr may do best here in his home state.

Now, it may well be an outlier, but it shows why Georgia is far more plausible than I ever imagined.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Excellent point (4.00 / 3)
Especially since I think the Senate race in Texas is somewhat closer than in Georgia.

I imagine that if Noriega could do better among Texas latino(a)s than an average Democrat, and if Obama could significantly boost Democratic and black turnout, Noriega could actually pull out a win.

Now, that could happen even without Obama actually campaigning hard there, by virtue of his still staffing the state and registering voters.

Still, taking down Cornyn seems more likely than taking down Chambliss.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

[ Parent ]
Cornyn and Chambliss (4.00 / 2)
are about as execrable as they come -- Cornyn is about as smart as a bag of hammers (apologies to the hammers), and Chambliss is just a dirty scumbag. Still, it says something about the Republicans in the Senate they C&C aren't the worst of the lot -- McConnell and Roberts are worse, and arguably a few others.

If I had the ear of Barack's campaign, ... well, I'd counsel him to stop the FISA capitulation train using whatever arrow he has in his quiver.

But aside from that, I'd counsel him to target ... Wyoming and Idaho to go with Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota. There are approx. 550k people total (not registered voters) in Wyoming -- and polls from Wyoming show him within 10 to 15 points. He could spend 3 or 4 million total and potentially make a Senate seat competitive and help pick up a House seat, and maybe even win the state. Same analysis holds true in Idaho.

Kansas and Nebraska(CDs 1 and 2) would be next on my list, and maybe Mississippi. These are all cheap, low population states with concurrent, potentially winnable Senate races.

As much as I'd love to see Cornyn gone (and I think it's still possible he could lose if we get an epic wave this fall), I'd rather see us press on the rest of the Senate and Pres board than try and dump 20 mil in Texas in a losing cause. [Actually, I'd rather see us do both than drop every last dollar in 0hio, Michigan, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania].  

[ Parent ]
Other factors. (0.00 / 0)
I think there are some other considerations the Obama campaign made

(1) polls at the time of planning. Two months ago, New Jersey looked competitive, we weren't sure about that freak poll in North Dakota, and the national polling wasn't quite as good. Today, though, it's pretty clear that Obama is safe in WA and OR (and to a lesser extent MN) in a way that wasn't when they were deciding where to put the boots on the ground.
(2) existing progressive infrastructure. Washington, Oregon, and to a lesser extent Minnesota already have lots of people devoted to organizing around various progressive causes. There is probably a lot more to tap into. Also, since Obama knows the zipcode of everyone on his email list, he knows where there are lots of people sympathetic to Obama. So I sort of assume there are fewer Obamites in AK, ND, and even MT than there are in MN or WA.
(3) the price of gas. No, seriously, it probably costs more to put a person in Montana than it does to put them in New Jersey, or even Pennsylvania. The TV ad states are places where people drive just a ton each year, and towns are far apart ... there's no "next suburb over" in lots of those places.

Well (0.00 / 0)
except that food, housing, and everything else is so much more expensive in those states than in places like MT.
[ Parent ]
Demonstrating A Blowout (4.00 / 3)
This map does an excellent job of demonstrating a blowout in the process of developing.  The sooner this demonstration can be advanced, the sooner the self-fulfilling prophecy dynamic can take hold.

A thoroughly demoralized GOP is something deeply to be desired.

And a stunned, utterly bewildered press is not half-bad, either.

Oh, wait, we already have that.

But I mean in a good way.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

Holy Crap! (0.00 / 0)
Look at the map that's about halfway through this PDF:

http://www.census.gov/prod/200...

It shows the percentage of African American population as of 2000. Huge swaths of the deep south are over 50%

That's why Obama's hitting heavy in GA!

I don't know how long it will last, but as of 2008, the idea of a black president, while it might not be a big deal to dirty hippies and latte sippers, (and latte sipping dirty hippies like myself), is apparently a very big deal to blacks ... not only in terms of almost unanimous support of Obama over McCain, but in terms of turning out in a higher percentage than any other demographic. Kerry may have gotten 80+% of blacks but I doubt he pushed the envelope that hard on inner city turnout. With Obama's monstrous machine at work tens of thousands who never vote will be mobilized.

Think about it - there's no other demographic, even the evangelicals, that will go for one candidate with that kind of strength and solidarity.

Until the novelty wears off, the democrats may never run another non-black again!

Emerging Obama Targeting Strategy | 19 comments
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