(Dark Blue (169): Obama +10.0% or more
Lean Blue (107): Obama +3.6%-+9.9%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +3.5% to McCain +3.5%
Lean Red (47): McCain +3.6%-+9.9%
Dark Red (124): McCain +10.0% or more)
Today, new polls (see here and here) from Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio collectively shift the map even further toward Barack Obama. Here are the category changes since the last front-page update:
Georgia moves from "Solid McCain" to "Lean McCain"
Nevada moves from "Lean McCain" to "Toss-up"
New Hampshire moves from "Lean Obama" to "Solid Obama"
North Carolina moves from "Lean McCain" to "Toss-up"
In the case of North Carolina, it upgraded not because of new polls, but instead because of an old poll that dropped out of the averages.
Obama is ahead, tied, or within 6.0% in states worth 408 electoral votes. With the campaign starting to press its resource advantage through 3,600 organizing fellows and a widepsread television advertising campaign, and with Republican 527's is the dumps, a true blowout is now within reach. McCain's tenuous support in the southeast is particularly interesting. There isn't a single state in the entire eastern seaboard where McCain holds a solid lead.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
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